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Final Men

02.06.2024 Kielce POL
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Europe Triathlon Cup Kielce

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 02.06.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 67/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 93.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error7.3
Mean swim error7.0 s
Mean bike-speed error1.54 km/h
Correct bike groups10/30
No history0
Within the 80% range50.0 %
Details
1 / 13 Hugo Milner
GBR
+15 s
+14 s
G1 / G2
 5:30
5:18
 16:37
Show details
Prediction details: Hugo Milner

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–5
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 4:41
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 1.3 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 31 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:30 (2:45 / km)
Historical basis: 2:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:18 (2:39 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 16:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:41 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:51 (42.0 km/h)
Run: 5:30 (2:45 / km)
Total: 16:37
2 / 1 Samuel Dickinson
GBR
+3 s
+4 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:32
5:24
 16:39
Show details
Prediction details: Samuel Dickinson

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time: 4:29
Pace: 1:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: -1.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.89 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 44.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:32 (2:46 / km)
Historical basis: 2:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:24 (2:42 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 16:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:29 (1:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:51 (42.0 km/h)
Run: 5:32 (2:46 / km)
Total: 16:39
3 / 18 Christopher Perham
GBR
+15 s
+11 s
G1 / G2
 5:35
5:38
 16:42
Show details
Prediction details: Christopher Perham

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–27
Top-10 probability: 65 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 4:41
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 4.2 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 1.18 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:35 (2:48 / km)
Historical basis: 2:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.62 %, Sicherheit 50 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:38 (2:49 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 16:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:41 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:51 (42.0 km/h)
Run: 5:35 (2:48 / km)
Total: 16:42
4 / 2 Henry Graf
GER
+9 s
+6 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:40
5:23
 16:47
Show details
Prediction details: Henry Graf

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 4:35
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 3.3 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 58 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 93 %
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:40 (2:50 / km)
Historical basis: 2:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.78 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:23 (2:42 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 16:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:35 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:51 (42.0 km/h)
Run: 5:40 (2:50 / km)
Total: 16:47
5 / 5 Paul Georgenthum
FRA
+18 s
+11 s
G2 / G1
 5:40
5:33
 16:50
Show details
Prediction details: Paul Georgenthum

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–25
Top-10 probability: 74 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 4:44
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 7.3 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 22 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 45.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:40 (2:50 / km)
Historical basis: 2:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:33 (2:47 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 16:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:44 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:40 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 5:40 (2:50 / km)
Total: 16:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 1.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 29 Enzo Bourdon
FRA
+3 s
+17 s
G1 / G3
 5:47
5:59
 16:54
Show details
Prediction details: Enzo Bourdon

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–9
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time: 4:29
Pace: 1:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: -13.6 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 1.50 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:47 (2:53 / km)
Historical basis: 2:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 31 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:59 (3:00 / km)
Error: −0:12 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 16:54
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:29 (1:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:51 (42.0 km/h)
Run: 5:47 (2:53 / km)
Total: 16:54
7 / 8 Till Kramp
GER
+26 s
+14 s
G2 / G1
 5:45
5:37
 16:55
Show details
Prediction details: Till Kramp

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 1–22
Top-10 probability: 60 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 4:52
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 11.5 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 72 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:45 (2:53 / km)
Historical basis: 2:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:44 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.73 %, Sicherheit 49 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:37 (2:49 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 16:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:52 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:40 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 5:45 (2:53 / km)
Total: 16:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 8.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 10 Niels Van Lanen
NED
+21 s
+11 s
G2 / G1
 5:46
5:42
 16:56
Show details
Prediction details: Niels Van Lanen

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 4–21
Top-10 probability: 64 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 4:47
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 10.3 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 80 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:46 (2:53 / km)
Historical basis: 2:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur 1.03 %, Sicherheit 68 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:42 (2:51 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 16:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:47 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:40 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 5:46 (2:53 / km)
Total: 16:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 4.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 19 Sebastian Wernersen
NOR
+5 s
+13 s
G1 / G2
 5:53
5:37
 17:00
Show details
Prediction details: Sebastian Wernersen

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 6–13
Top-10 probability: 79 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +5 s
Time: 4:31
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: -7.7 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.95 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 3.4 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:53 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:37 (2:49 / km)
Error: +0:16 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 17:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:31 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:51 (42.0 km/h)
Run: 5:53 (2:56 / km)
Total: 17:00
10 / 20 Mateo Vidal
FRA
+9 s
+17 s
G1 / G2
 5:54
5:40
 17:01
Show details
Prediction details: Mateo Vidal

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 6–13
Top-10 probability: 55 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 4:35
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: -8.1 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.92 %, Sicherheit 48 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:54 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 72 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:40 (2:50 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 17:01
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:35 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:51 (42.0 km/h)
Run: 5:54 (2:57 / km)
Total: 17:01
11 / 3 Jonathan Brownlee
GBR
+17 s
+3 s
G2 / G1
 5:54
5:28
 17:04
Show details
Prediction details: Jonathan Brownlee

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 7–15
Top-10 probability: 59 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 14.3 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.09 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 56 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:54 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.28 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:28 (2:44 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 17:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:43 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:40 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 5:54 (2:57 / km)
Total: 17:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 0.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 12 Euan De Nigro
ITA
+19 s
+20 s
G2 / G2
correct 		5:55
5:18
 17:05
Show details
Prediction details: Euan De Nigro

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 6–19
Top-10 probability: 38 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 4:45
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: -0.8 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 77 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:55 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 58 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:18 (2:39 / km)
Error: +0:37 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 17:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:45 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:40 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 5:55 (2:58 / km)
Total: 17:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 2.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 14 Victor Goené
NED
+21 s
+16 s
G2 / G2
correct 		5:55
5:32
 17:05
Show details
Prediction details: Victor Goené

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 9–29
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 4:47
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 5.2 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur 0.98 %, Sicherheit 67 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:55 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:32 (2:46 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 17:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:47 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:40 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 5:55 (2:58 / km)
Total: 17:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 4.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 7 Jan Diener
GER
+10 s
+9 s
G1 / G1
correct 		6:01
5:35
 17:08
Show details
Prediction details: Jan Diener

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 9–16
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 4:36
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 1.3 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 94 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 91 %
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 45.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:01 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:35 (2:48 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 17:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:36 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:51 (42.0 km/h)
Run: 6:01 (3:01 / km)
Total: 17:08
15 / 23 Jonas Osterholt
GER
+14 s
+14 s
G1 / G2
 6:02
5:55
 17:09
Show details
Prediction details: Jonas Osterholt

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 9–17
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 4:40
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 0.1 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 92 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:02 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:55 (2:58 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 17:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:40 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:51 (42.0 km/h)
Run: 6:02 (3:01 / km)
Total: 17:09
16 / 9 Jan Bader
AUT
+18 s
+16 s
G2 / G1
 6:04
5:44
 17:14
Show details
Prediction details: Jan Bader

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 12–21
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 4:44
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 2.2 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 81 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 45.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:04 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 61 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:44 (2:52 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 17:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:44 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:40 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 6:04 (3:02 / km)
Total: 17:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 1.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 26 Ian Pennekamp
NED
+31 s
+23 s
G2 / G3
 6:04
5:41
 17:14
Show details
Prediction details: Ian Pennekamp

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 8–30
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 4:57
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 7.5 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.91 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:04 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.37 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:41 (2:51 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 17:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:57 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:40 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 6:04 (3:02 / km)
Total: 17:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 13.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 6 Gergő Dobi
HUN
+11 s
+7 s
G1 / G1
correct 		6:07
5:30
 17:14
Show details
Prediction details: Gergő Dobi

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 11–19
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 4:37
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 3.5 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:07 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 52 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:30 (2:45 / km)
Error: +0:37 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 17:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:37 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:51 (42.0 km/h)
Run: 6:07 (3:04 / km)
Total: 17:14
19 / 21 Jimmy Lund
GBR
+10 s
+9 s
G1 / G2
 6:09
5:40
 17:16
Show details
Prediction details: Jimmy Lund

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 12–19
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 4:36
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 0.8 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 51 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:09 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:40 (2:50 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 17:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:36 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:51 (42.0 km/h)
Run: 6:09 (3:05 / km)
Total: 17:16
20 / 28 Pierre Moraz
SUI
+35 s
+24 s
G3 / G3
correct 		5:55
5:47
 17:17
Show details
Prediction details: Pierre Moraz

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 10–28
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 5:01
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 10.5 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 92 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:55 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:47 (2:54 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 17:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:01 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:42 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 5:55 (2:58 / km)
Total: 17:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 17.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 30 Itamar Levanon
ISR
+25 s
+28 s
G2 / G3
 6:07
6:14
 17:17
Show details
Prediction details: Itamar Levanon

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 12–30
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 4:51
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: -2.8 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 55 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:07 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:14 (3:07 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 17:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:51 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:40 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 6:07 (3:03 / km)
Total: 17:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 8.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 16 Alberto Bartolomeo Demarchi
ITA
+40 s
+18 s
G3 / G2
 5:59
5:35
 17:21
Show details
Prediction details: Alberto Bartolomeo Demarchi

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 18–26
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 5:06
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 22.3 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.1 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:59 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:35 (2:48 / km)
Error: +0:24 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 17:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:06 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:42 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 5:59 (3:00 / km)
Total: 17:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 23.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 4 Zalán Hóbor
HUN
+13 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		6:23
5:32
 17:30
Show details
Prediction details: Zalán Hóbor

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 17–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 4:39
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 13.0 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 49 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:23 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 52 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:32 (2:46 / km)
Error: +0:51 / +0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 17:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:39 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:51 (42.0 km/h)
Run: 6:23 (3:11 / km)
Total: 17:30
24 / 24 Veikka Saren
FIN
+24 s
+28 s
G2 / G3
 6:21
5:29
 17:31
Show details
Prediction details: Veikka Saren

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 20–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 4:50
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: -4.1 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:21 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:29 (2:45 / km)
Error: +0:52 / +0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 17:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:50 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:40 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 6:21 (3:10 / km)
Total: 17:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 15 Nicolo' Astori
ITA
+29 s
+19 s
G2 / G2
correct 		6:21
5:33
 17:31
Show details
Prediction details: Nicolo' Astori

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 21–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 4:55
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 9.7 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:21 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:33 (2:47 / km)
Error: +0:48 / +0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 17:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:55 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:40 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 6:21 (3:10 / km)
Total: 17:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
26 / 22 Niklas Keller
AUT
+35 s
+18 s
G3 / G2
 6:13
5:49
 17:35
Show details
Prediction details: Niklas Keller

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 14–30
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 5:01
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 17.2 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 84 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 5.1 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:13 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:49 (2:55 / km)
Error: +0:24 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 17:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:01 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:42 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 6:13 (3:06 / km)
Total: 17:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 18.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 25 Wout Ghielens
BEL
+28 s
+19 s
G2 / G3
 6:25
5:35
 17:35
Show details
Prediction details: Wout Ghielens

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 21–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 4:54
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 8.6 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 58 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:25 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -1.03 %, Sicherheit 53 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:35 (2:48 / km)
Error: +0:50 / +0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 17:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:54 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:40 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 6:25 (3:12 / km)
Total: 17:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 10.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 27 Samuele Angelini
ITA
+23 s
+13 s
G2 / G3
 6:29
5:42
 17:39
Show details
Prediction details: Samuele Angelini

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 20–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 4:49
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 9.6 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 91 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:29 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur -1.81 %, Sicherheit 64 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:42 (2:51 / km)
Error: +0:47 / +0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 17:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:49 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:40 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 6:29 (3:15 / km)
Total: 17:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 5.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 17 Cedric Osterholt
GER
+16 s
+10 s
G1 / G2
 6:38
5:36
 17:45
Show details
Prediction details: Cedric Osterholt

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 23–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 4:42
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 6.3 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 49 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:38 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -1.05 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:36 (2:48 / km)
Error: +1:02 / +0:31 / km
Overall prediction: 17:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:42 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:51 (42.0 km/h)
Run: 6:38 (3:19 / km)
Total: 17:45
30 / 11 Maciej Bruzdziak
POL
+9 s
+6 s
G1 / G1
correct 		6:45
5:44
 17:52
Show details
Prediction details: Maciej Bruzdziak

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 25–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 4:35
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 2.7 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 61 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.4 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.91 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:45 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -1.08 %, Sicherheit 40 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:44 (2:52 / km)
Error: +1:01 / +0:31 / km
Overall prediction: 17:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:35 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:51 (42.0 km/h)
Run: 6:45 (3:23 / km)
Total: 17:52