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Semifinal 3 Elite Men

02.06.2024 Kielce POL
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Europe Triathlon Cup Kielce

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 02.06.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 61/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 82.6 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 91.3 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.5
Mean swim error14.8 s
Mean bike-speed error2.06 km/h
Correct bike groups9/23
No history0
Within the 80% range52.2 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 3 Christopher Perham
GBR
+12 s
+9 s
G1 / G2
 5:35
5:32
 17:15
Show details
Prediction details: Christopher Perham

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 4:41
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 3.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.82 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:35 (2:47 / km)
Historical basis: 2:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:32 (2:46 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 17:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:41 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:25 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 5:35 (2:47 / km)
Total: 17:15
2 / 2 Enzo Bourdon
FRA
+4 s
+18 s
G1 / G2
 5:47
5:30
 17:27
Show details
Prediction details: Enzo Bourdon

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +4 s
Time: 4:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: -14.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.93 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:47 (2:54 / km)
Historical basis: 2:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:30 (2:45 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 17:27
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:33 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:25 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 5:47 (2:54 / km)
Total: 17:27
3 / 5 Sebastian Wernersen
NOR
+4 s
+15 s
G1 / G2
 5:58
5:35
 17:38
Show details
Prediction details: Sebastian Wernersen

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–8
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +4 s
Time: 4:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: -10.9 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.79 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:58 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:35 (2:48 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 17:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:33 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:25 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 5:58 (2:59 / km)
Total: 17:38
4 / 7 Till Kramp
GER
+25 s
+17 s
G2 / G2
correct 		5:45
5:37
 17:41
Show details
Prediction details: Till Kramp

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–12
Top-10 probability: 83 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 4:54
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 7.6 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 22 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:45 (2:53 / km)
Historical basis: 2:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:44 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.73 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:37 (2:49 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 17:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:54 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:17 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 5:45 (2:53 / km)
Total: 17:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:48
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 5.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 11 Daniel Damian
CAN
+25 s
+16 s
G2 / G2
correct 		5:46
5:50
 17:42
Show details
Prediction details: Daniel Damian

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 2–11
Top-10 probability: 88 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 4:54
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 9.1 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:46 (2:53 / km)
Historical basis: 2:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.62 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:50 (2:55 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 17:42
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:54 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:17 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 5:46 (2:53 / km)
Total: 17:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:48
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 6.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 9 Jan Diener
GER
+9 s
+9 s
G1 / G2
 6:02
5:45
 17:42
Show details
Prediction details: Jan Diener

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–8
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 4:38
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: -0.2 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 41 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:02 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:45 (2:53 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 17:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:38 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:25 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 6:02 (3:01 / km)
Total: 17:42
7 / 1 Gergő Dobi
HUN
+10 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		6:06
5:41
 17:46
Show details
Prediction details: Gergő Dobi

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 5–10
Top-10 probability: 93 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 4:39
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 9.9 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:06 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:41 (2:51 / km)
Error: +0:25 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 17:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:39 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:25 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 6:06 (3:03 / km)
Total: 17:46
8 / 6 Alberto Bartolomeo Demarchi
ITA
+39 s
+20 s
G2 / G2
correct 		6:00
5:35
 17:56
Show details
Prediction details: Alberto Bartolomeo Demarchi

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 7–17
Top-10 probability: 30 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 5:08
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 19.4 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 4.9 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:00 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.81 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:35 (2:48 / km)
Error: +0:25 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 17:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:08 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:17 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 6:00 (3:00 / km)
Total: 17:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:48
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 20.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 4 Itamar Levanon
ISR
+23 s
+20 s
G2 / G2
correct 		6:07
5:33
 18:03
Show details
Prediction details: Itamar Levanon

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 8–18
Top-10 probability: 43 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 4:52
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 3.1 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.2 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:07 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:33 (2:47 / km)
Error: +0:34 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 18:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:52 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:17 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 6:07 (3:03 / km)
Total: 18:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:46
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 6.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 21 Gregor Rasva
EST
+7 s
+15 s
G1 / G2
 6:25
8:36
 18:05
Show details
Prediction details: Gregor Rasva

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 4–13
Top-10 probability: 60 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 4:36
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: -7.9 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 66 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:25 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:36 (4:18 / km)
Error: −2:11 / −1:06 / km
Overall prediction: 18:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:36 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:25 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 6:25 (3:12 / km)
Total: 18:05
11 / 12 Mateusz Gluszkowski
POL
+3 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		6:30
6:27
 18:10
Show details
Prediction details: Mateusz Gluszkowski

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 8–12
Top-10 probability: 65 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time: 4:32
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 3.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 33 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:30 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.84 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:27 (3:14 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 18:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:32 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:25 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 6:30 (3:15 / km)
Total: 18:10
12 / 14 David Martin
CZE
+36 s
+15 s
G2 / G2
correct 		6:26
6:16
 18:22
Show details
Prediction details: David Martin

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 9–19
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 5:05
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 20.5 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.81 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.9 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:26 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:16 (3:08 / km)
Error: +0:10 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 18:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:05 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:17 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 6:26 (3:13 / km)
Total: 18:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:49
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 16.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 10 Tomer Shapira
ISR
+15 s
+18 s
G1 / G2
 6:44
5:48
 18:24
Show details
Prediction details: Tomer Shapira

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 11–15
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 4:44
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: -3.1 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 8.2 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:44 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -1.20 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:48 (2:54 / km)
Error: +0:56 / +0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 18:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:44 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:25 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 6:44 (3:22 / km)
Total: 18:24
14 / 8 Maciej Bruzdziak
POL
+8 s
+11 s
G1 / G2
 6:45
5:40
 18:25
Show details
Prediction details: Maciej Bruzdziak

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 11–15
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 4:37
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: -3.5 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 70 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:45 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -1.17 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:40 (2:50 / km)
Error: +1:05 / +0:32 / km
Overall prediction: 18:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:37 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:25 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 6:45 (3:22 / km)
Total: 18:25
15 / 15 Lukas Bentsen
DEN
+31 s
+19 s
G2 / G3
 6:47
6:17
 18:43
Show details
Prediction details: Lukas Bentsen

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 14–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 5:00
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 11.6 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 4.9 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:47 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.89 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:17 (3:09 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 18:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:00 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:17 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 6:47 (3:23 / km)
Total: 18:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:46
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 13.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 13 Malte Kreibich
GER
+31 s
+19 s
G2 / G2
correct 		6:56
6:05
 18:52
Show details
Prediction details: Malte Kreibich

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 14–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 5:00
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 11.5 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:56 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.82 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:05 (3:03 / km)
Error: +0:51 / +0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 18:52
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:00 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:17 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 6:56 (3:28 / km)
Total: 18:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:46
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 13.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 18 Joshua Fletcher
AUS
+27 s
+32 s
G2 / G3
 7:02
6:41
 18:58
Show details
Prediction details: Joshua Fletcher

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 13–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 4:56
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: -4.7 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.06 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:02 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.03 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:41 (3:21 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 18:58
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:56 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:17 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 7:02 (3:31 / km)
Total: 18:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:46
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 10.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 17 Adrian Wilk
POL
+46 s
+17 s
G3 / G3
correct 		6:25
6:46
 19:45
Show details
Prediction details: Adrian Wilk

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 12–21
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 5:15
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 28.5 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.94 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:25 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.90 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:46 (3:23 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 19:45
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:15 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:34 (36.3 km/h)
Run: 6:25 (3:12 / km)
Total: 19:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:46
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 28.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 20 Filip Socha
POL
+44 s
+22 s
G3 / G4
 6:59
6:55
 20:19
Show details
Prediction details: Filip Socha

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 18–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 5:13
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 22.3 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.9 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:59 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:55 (3:28 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 20:19
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 5:13 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:34 (36.3 km/h)
Run: 6:59 (3:29 / km)
Total: 20:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:46
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 27.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 23 Filip Pupka
POL
+47 s
+35 s
G3 / G5
 7:29
7:25
 20:49
Show details
Prediction details: Filip Pupka

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 20–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 5:16
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 11.6 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 7.2 s
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:29 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:25 (3:43 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 20:49
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 5:16 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:34 (36.3 km/h)
Run: 7:29 (3:44 / km)
Total: 20:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:46
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 29.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 22 Mateusz Majak
POL
+54 s
+46 s
G4 / G5
 6:51
6:53
 21:05
Show details
Prediction details: Mateusz Majak

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 18–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 5:23
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: 7.8 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.2 s
Gap behind: 46.9 s
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.91 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:51 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:53 (3:27 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 21:05
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 5:23 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:16 (36.4 km/h)
Run: 6:51 (3:26 / km)
Total: 21:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:46
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 36.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 19 Matus Kozlovsky
SVK
+101 s
+47 s
G4 / G5
 8:26
6:02
 22:40
Show details
Prediction details: Matus Kozlovsky

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 23–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +101 s
Time: 6:10
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 53.7 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 46.9 s
Gap behind: 17.3 s
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:26 (4:13 / km)
Historical basis: 4:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:02 (3:01 / km)
Error: +2:24 / +1:12 / km
Overall prediction: 22:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:10 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:16 (36.4 km/h)
Run: 8:26 (4:13 / km)
Total: 22:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:48
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 81.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 16 Pim Bakker
NED
+118 s
+45 s
G4 / G3
6:05
Show details
Prediction details: Pim Bakker

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +118 s
Time: 6:27
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: 73.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 17.3 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:05 (3:03 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:27 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:16 (36.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:48
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 99 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.