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Final Men

15.06.2024 Kitzbühel AUT
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Europe Triathlon Cup Kitzbuhel

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 15.06.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 40/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 39.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error7.7
Mean swim error6.0 s
Mean bike-speed error0.30 km/h
Correct bike groups19/28
No history0
Within the 80% range67.9 %
Details
1 / 1 Alex Yee
GBR
+26 s
+15 s
G2 / G1
 8:48
8:22
 25:24
Show details
Prediction details: Alex Yee

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–18
Top-10 probability: 69 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 6:13
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 11.3 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 81 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:48 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 78 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:22 (2:47 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 25:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:13 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 8:48 (2:56 / km)
Total: 25:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:03
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 10 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 5 Jan Diener
GER
+16 s
+12 s
G1 / G1
correct 		9:01
8:48
 25:30
Show details
Prediction details: Jan Diener

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–17
Top-10 probability: 69 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 6:03
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 3.9 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 79 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:01 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:48 (2:56 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 25:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:03 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:14 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 9:01 (3:00 / km)
Total: 25:30
3 / 14 Dominic Coy
GBR
+20 s
+19 s
G2 / G2
correct 		8:55
8:49
 25:31
Show details
Prediction details: Dominic Coy

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–21
Top-10 probability: 71 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 6:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 0.8 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 75 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:55 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 74 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:49 (2:56 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 25:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:07 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 8:55 (2:58 / km)
Total: 25:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 3.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 9 Arnaud Mengal
BEL
+24 s
+27 s
G2 / G2
correct 		8:56
8:37
 25:32
Show details
Prediction details: Arnaud Mengal

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–21
Top-10 probability: 61 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 6:11
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: -2.7 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:56 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 82 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:37 (2:52 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 25:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:11 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 8:56 (2:59 / km)
Total: 25:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:03
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 3 Brayden Mercer
AUS
+3 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		9:03
8:36
 25:32
Show details
Prediction details: Brayden Mercer

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 2–15
Top-10 probability: 73 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time: 5:50
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 3.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 88 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:03 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 80 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:36 (2:52 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 25:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:50 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:14 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 9:03 (3:01 / km)
Total: 25:32
6 / 16 Jannik Schaufler
GER
+16 s
+25 s
G1 / G2
 9:03
8:47
 25:32
Show details
Prediction details: Jannik Schaufler

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 3–17
Top-10 probability: 55 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 6:03
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: -9.3 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:03 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 85 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:47 (2:56 / km)
Error: +0:16 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 25:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:03 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:14 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 9:03 (3:01 / km)
Total: 25:32
7 / 17 Daniel Damian
CAN
+21 s
+31 s
G2 / G2
correct 		8:58
8:56
 25:34
Show details
Prediction details: Daniel Damian

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 2–14
Top-10 probability: 73 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 6:08
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: -9.6 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:58 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:56 (2:59 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 25:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:08 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 8:58 (2:59 / km)
Total: 25:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:03
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 5.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 4 Hamish Reilly
GBR
+14 s
+7 s
G1 / G1
correct 		9:06
8:48
 25:35
Show details
Prediction details: Hamish Reilly

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 3–17
Top-10 probability: 60 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 6:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 7.0 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 92 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 93 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:06 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:48 (2:56 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 25:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:14 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 9:06 (3:02 / km)
Total: 25:35
9 / 12 Eric Diener
GER
+23 s
+24 s
G2 / G2
correct 		9:00
8:47
 25:36
Show details
Prediction details: Eric Diener

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 2–27
Top-10 probability: 58 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 6:10
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -0.6 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:00 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:47 (2:56 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 25:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:10 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 9:00 (3:00 / km)
Total: 25:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:03
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 7.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 24 Niklas Keller
AUT
+26 s
+33 s
G2 / G2
correct 		9:01
9:09
 25:37
Show details
Prediction details: Niklas Keller

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 3–23
Top-10 probability: 41 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 6:13
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: -7.5 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:01 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:09 (3:03 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 25:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:13 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 9:01 (3:00 / km)
Total: 25:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 9.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 19 Veikka Saren
FIN
+30 s
+33 s
G2 / G2
correct 		9:02
8:55
 25:38
Show details
Prediction details: Veikka Saren

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 7–25
Top-10 probability: 19 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 6:17
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: -3.2 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:02 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:55 (2:58 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 25:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:17 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 9:02 (3:01 / km)
Total: 25:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 13.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 15 Ka'eo Kruse
USA
+21 s
+17 s
G2 / G2
correct 		9:03
8:48
 25:39
Show details
Prediction details: Ka'eo Kruse

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 6–22
Top-10 probability: 36 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 6:08
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 4.4 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 85 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:03 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 78 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:48 (2:56 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 25:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:08 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 9:03 (3:01 / km)
Total: 25:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:03
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 5.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 27 Gaspard Tharreau
FRA
+27 s
+33 s
G2 / G2
correct 		9:03
9:27
 25:39
Show details
Prediction details: Gaspard Tharreau

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 5–24
Top-10 probability: 30 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 6:14
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: -6.3 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:03 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:27 (3:09 / km)
Error: −0:24 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 25:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:14 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 9:03 (3:01 / km)
Total: 25:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 10.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 22 Itamar Levanon
ISR
+30 s
+35 s
G2 / G2
correct 		9:03
9:08
 25:39
Show details
Prediction details: Itamar Levanon

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 8–27
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 6:17
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -5.0 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:03 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 94 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:08 (3:03 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 25:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:17 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 9:03 (3:01 / km)
Total: 25:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:03
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 13.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 10 Jan Bader
AUT
+18 s
+9 s
G2 / G1
 9:05
8:57
 25:41
Show details
Prediction details: Jan Bader

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 3–18
Top-10 probability: 61 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 6:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 9.3 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 66 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:05 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:57 (2:59 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 25:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 9:05 (3:02 / km)
Total: 25:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:03
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 26 Fabian Kraft
GER
+18 s
+21 s
G2 / G2
correct 		9:05
9:23
 25:41
Show details
Prediction details: Fabian Kraft

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 4–22
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 6:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: -3.2 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 98 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:05 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 64 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:23 (3:08 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 25:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 9:05 (3:02 / km)
Total: 25:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 1.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 13 Victor Goené
NED
+23 s
+30 s
G2 / G2
correct 		9:05
8:49
 25:41
Show details
Prediction details: Victor Goené

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 5–24
Top-10 probability: 36 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 6:10
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: -7.0 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:05 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:49 (2:56 / km)
Error: +0:16 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 25:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:10 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 9:05 (3:02 / km)
Total: 25:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:03
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 6.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 25 Jayden Schofield
AUS
+19 s
+33 s
G2 / G2
correct 		9:06
9:15
 25:42
Show details
Prediction details: Jayden Schofield

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 6–27
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 6:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: -13.9 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 1.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:06 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 83 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:15 (3:05 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 25:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:06 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 9:06 (3:02 / km)
Total: 25:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:03
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 2.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 6 Pietro Giovannini
ITA
+6 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		9:15
8:47
 25:44
Show details
Prediction details: Pietro Giovannini

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 8–20
Top-10 probability: 20 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 5:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 3.2 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 3.8 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:15 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:47 (2:56 / km)
Error: +0:28 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 25:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:53 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:14 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 9:15 (3:05 / km)
Total: 25:44
20 / 8 Zalán Hóbor
HUN
+10 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		9:17
8:54
 25:46
Show details
Prediction details: Zalán Hóbor

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 10–23
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 5:57
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 8.0 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 3.3 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:17 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:54 (2:58 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 25:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:57 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:14 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 9:17 (3:06 / km)
Total: 25:46
21 / 18 Tom Lerno
FRA
+13 s
+5 s
G1 / G1
correct 		9:17
9:05
 25:46
Show details
Prediction details: Tom Lerno

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 11–22
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 6:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 8.3 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.3 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:17 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:05 (3:02 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 25:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:14 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 9:17 (3:06 / km)
Total: 25:46
22 / 20 Adrien Deharre
BEL
+32 s
+29 s
G3 / G2
 8:57
8:55
 25:53
Show details
Prediction details: Adrien Deharre

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 6–24
Top-10 probability: 25 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 6:19
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 2.5 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:57 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:55 (2:58 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 25:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:19 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:20 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 8:57 (2:59 / km)
Total: 25:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 15.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 2 Euan De Nigro
ITA
+17 s
+6 s
G2 / G1
 9:18
8:33
 25:54
Show details
Prediction details: Euan De Nigro

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 13–25
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 11.1 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 70 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:18 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:33 (2:51 / km)
Error: +0:45 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 25:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 9:18 (3:06 / km)
Total: 25:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:03
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 0.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 21 Nicholas Holmes
USA
+36 s
+34 s
G3 / G2
 8:59
8:57
 25:55
Show details
Prediction details: Nicholas Holmes

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 14–25
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 6:23
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: 2.4 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:59 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 93 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:57 (2:59 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 25:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:23 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:20 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 8:59 (3:00 / km)
Total: 25:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:03
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 20.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 7 Jawad Abdelmoula
MAR
+17 s
+8 s
G2 / G1
 9:22
8:50
 25:58
Show details
Prediction details: Jawad Abdelmoula

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 13–27
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 9.4 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 61 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 66 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:22 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:50 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:32 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 25:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 9:22 (3:07 / km)
Total: 25:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:03
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 1.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 28 Jaspar Ortfeld
GER
+32 s
+27 s
G3 / G2
 9:03
9:39
 25:59
Show details
Prediction details: Jaspar Ortfeld

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 9–28
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 6:19
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 5.1 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 74 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:03 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:39 (3:13 / km)
Error: −0:36 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 25:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:19 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:20 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 9:03 (3:01 / km)
Total: 25:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:03
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 15.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 23 Reuben Trotter
GBR
+35 s
+29 s
G3 / G2
 9:12
9:17
 26:08
Show details
Prediction details: Reuben Trotter

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 22–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 6:22
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 5.7 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 63 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:12 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:17 (3:06 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 26:08
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:22 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:20 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 9:12 (3:04 / km)
Total: 26:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 18.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 11 Lachlan Jones
AUS
+2 s
+7 s
G1 / G1
correct 		9:51
9:01
 26:20
Show details
Prediction details: Lachlan Jones

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 25–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +2 s
Time: 5:49
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: -4.6 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.72 %, Sicherheit 93 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:51 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 64 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:01 (3:00 / km)
Error: +0:50 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 26:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:49 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:14 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 9:51 (3:17 / km)
Total: 26:20