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Semifinal 1 Elite Men

14.06.2024 Kitzbühel AUT
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Europe Triathlon Cup Kitzbuhel

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.06.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 53/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 65.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 95.7 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error7.6
Mean swim error11.0 s
Mean bike-speed error1.19 km/h
Correct bike groups7/23
No history0
Within the 80% range26.1 %
Details
1 / 1 Alex Yee
GBR
+22 s
+24 s
G1 / G1
correct 		8:31
8:48
 25:08
Show details
Prediction details: Alex Yee

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–5
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 5:57
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -2.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:31 (2:50 / km)
Historical basis: 2:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:39 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 12
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:48 (2:56 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 25:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:57 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:10 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 8:31 (2:50 / km)
Total: 25:08
2 / 15 Cedric Osterholt
GER
+18 s
+17 s
G1 / G2
 8:39
10:53
 25:16
Show details
Prediction details: Cedric Osterholt

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 5:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 1.0 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 85 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 83 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:39 (2:53 / km)
Historical basis: 2:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:53 (3:38 / km)
Error: −2:14 / −0:45 / km
Overall prediction: 25:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:53 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:10 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 8:39 (2:53 / km)
Total: 25:16
3 / 10 Ka'eo Kruse
USA
+25 s
+19 s
G1 / G2
 8:53
9:03
 25:30
Show details
Prediction details: Ka'eo Kruse

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 6:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 6.1 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:53 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:36 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:03 (3:01 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 25:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:10 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 8:53 (2:58 / km)
Total: 25:30
4 / 7 Jan Diener
GER
+17 s
+20 s
G1 / G2
 9:00
9:01
 25:37
Show details
Prediction details: Jan Diener

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 5:52
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: -2.6 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 79 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:00 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 1.76 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:01 (3:00 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 25:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:52 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:10 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 9:00 (3:00 / km)
Total: 25:37
5 / 13 Oscar Dart
AUS
+17 s
+21 s
G1 / G1
correct 		9:14
9:46
 25:51
Show details
Prediction details: Oscar Dart

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–10
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 5:52
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: -3.8 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 31 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 81 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.2 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:14 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:46 (3:15 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 25:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:52 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:10 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 9:14 (3:05 / km)
Total: 25:51
6 / 14 Chris Ziehmer
GER
+27 s
+19 s
G1 / G2
 9:20
10:13
 25:57
Show details
Prediction details: Chris Ziehmer

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 2–13
Top-10 probability: 78 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 6:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 7.8 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 69 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:20 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 1.66 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:13 (3:24 / km)
Error: −0:53 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 25:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:10 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 9:20 (3:07 / km)
Total: 25:57
7 / 2 Brayden Mercer
AUS
+3 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		9:24
9:03
 26:01
Show details
Prediction details: Brayden Mercer

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 1–13
Top-10 probability: 79 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time: 5:38
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 9.0 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:24 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -1.13 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:03 (3:01 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 26:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:38 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:10 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 9:24 (3:08 / km)
Total: 26:01
8 / 9 Victor Goené
NED
+27 s
+20 s
G1 / G1
correct 		9:24
9:04
 26:01
Show details
Prediction details: Victor Goené

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–14
Top-10 probability: 71 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 6:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 7.3 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 90 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 7.3 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:24 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 1.19 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:04 (3:01 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 26:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:10 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 9:24 (3:08 / km)
Total: 26:01
9 / 23 Ivan Abele
NZL
+38 s
+34 s
G2 / G4
 9:15
10:21
 26:05
Show details
Prediction details: Ivan Abele

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 5–10
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 6:13
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: 3.7 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 65 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 5.7 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:15 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 1.65 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:21 (3:27 / km)
Error: −1:06 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 26:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:13 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:12 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 9:15 (3:05 / km)
Total: 26:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 6.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 22 Cameron Harris
GBR
+36 s
+47 s
G2 / G3
 9:32
10:59
 26:22
Show details
Prediction details: Cameron Harris

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 7–14
Top-10 probability: 61 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 6:11
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: -11.4 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:32 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:59 (3:40 / km)
Error: −1:27 / −0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 26:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:11 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:12 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 9:32 (3:11 / km)
Total: 26:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 4.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 21 Trevor Laupland
CAN
+26 s
+28 s
G1 / G3
 9:58
10:39
 26:35
Show details
Prediction details: Trevor Laupland

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 9–16
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 6:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: -1.6 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:58 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.34 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:39 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:41 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 26:35
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:10 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 9:58 (3:19 / km)
Total: 26:35
12 / 3 Nicholas Holmes
USA
+51 s
+28 s
G4 / G2
 9:04
8:59
 26:38
Show details
Prediction details: Nicholas Holmes

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 6–12
Top-10 probability: 66 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 6:26
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 23.4 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 41 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.0 s
Gap behind: 3.8 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:04 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:41 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.70 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:59 (3:00 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 26:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:26 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:38 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 9:04 (3:01 / km)
Total: 26:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 20.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 6 Zalán Hóbor
HUN
+27 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		10:04
9:14
 26:41
Show details
Prediction details: Zalán Hóbor

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 9–13
Top-10 probability: 26 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 6:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 27.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 69 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:04 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 1.82 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:14 (3:05 / km)
Error: +0:50 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 26:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:10 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 10:04 (3:21 / km)
Total: 26:41
14 / 16 Moritz Göttler
GER
+57 s
+29 s
G4 / G3
 9:19
9:47
 26:53
Show details
Prediction details: Moritz Göttler

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 11–14
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 6:32
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 27.5 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 43.1 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:19 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:47 (3:16 / km)
Error: −0:28 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 26:53
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:32 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:38 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 9:19 (3:06 / km)
Total: 26:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 25.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 19 Moritz Meier
AUT
+36 s
+46 s
G2 / G3
 10:28
10:14
 27:18
Show details
Prediction details: Moritz Meier

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 13–19
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 6:11
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: -10.2 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 53 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:28 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 1.07 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:14 (3:25 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 27:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:11 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:12 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 10:28 (3:29 / km)
Total: 27:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 4.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 20 Filippo Lisi
ITA
+55 s
+46 s
G4 / G3
 10:10
10:24
 27:44
Show details
Prediction details: Filippo Lisi

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 14–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 6:30
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: 9.2 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:10 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:24 (3:28 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 27:44
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 6:30 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:38 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 10:10 (3:23 / km)
Total: 27:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 24.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 18 Mats Keulstra
NED
+100 s
+33 s
G5 / G3
 9:24
10:06
 27:52
Show details
Prediction details: Mats Keulstra

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 15–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +100 s
Time: 7:15
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 66.6 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.31 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 43.1 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:24 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:06 (3:22 / km)
Error: −0:42 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 27:52
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:15 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:48 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 9:24 (3:08 / km)
Total: 27:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 68.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 11 Tom Lerno
FRA
+12 s
+14 s
G1 / G2
 11:26
9:18
 28:03
Show details
Prediction details: Tom Lerno

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 16–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 5:47
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: -2.0 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 90 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.0 s
Gap behind: 5.2 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:26 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -1.46 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:18 (3:06 / km)
Error: +2:08 / +0:43 / km
Overall prediction: 28:03
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:47 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:10 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 11:26 (3:49 / km)
Total: 28:03
19 / 5 Adrien Deharre
BEL
+38 s
+25 s
G2 / G2
correct 		11:23
8:57
 28:13
Show details
Prediction details: Adrien Deharre

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 18–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 6:13
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 12.6 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:23 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -1.80 %, Sicherheit 47 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:57 (2:59 / km)
Error: +2:26 / +0:49 / km
Overall prediction: 28:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:13 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:12 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 11:23 (3:48 / km)
Total: 28:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 6.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 4 Niklas Keller
AUT
+35 s
+21 s
G2 / G1
 11:26
8:59
 28:16
Show details
Prediction details: Niklas Keller

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 17–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 6:10
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 13.6 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.3 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:26 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -1.54 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:59 (3:00 / km)
Error: +2:27 / +0:49 / km
Overall prediction: 28:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:10 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:12 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 11:26 (3:49 / km)
Total: 28:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 3.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 8 Gaspard Tharreau
FRA
+20 s
+24 s
G1 / G2
 12:02
9:01
 28:39
Show details
Prediction details: Gaspard Tharreau

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 20–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 5:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -3.6 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 55 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:02 (4:01 / km)
Historical basis: 4:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -1.63 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:01 (3:00 / km)
Error: +3:01 / +1:00 / km
Overall prediction: 28:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:55 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:10 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 12:02 (4:01 / km)
Total: 28:39
22 / 12 Paul Frayon
SWE
+27 s
+18 s
G1 / G2
 13:34
9:45
 30:11
Show details
Prediction details: Paul Frayon

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 22–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 6:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 8.5 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 37 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:34 (4:31 / km)
Historical basis: 4:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.78 %, Sicherheit 31 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:45 (3:15 / km)
Error: +3:49 / +1:16 / km
Overall prediction: 30:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:10 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 13:34 (4:31 / km)
Total: 30:11
23 / 17 David Vollmann
AUT
+43 s
+42 s
G3 / G3
correct 		13:09
10:00
 30:43
Show details
Prediction details: David Vollmann

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 22–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 6:18
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 1.4 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 73 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.7 s
Gap behind: 8.0 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:09 (4:23 / km)
Historical basis: 4:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -2.32 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:00 (3:20 / km)
Error: +3:09 / +1:03 / km
Overall prediction: 30:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:18 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:50 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 13:09 (4:23 / km)
Total: 30:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 12.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.