Zum Inhalt springen
Performance Workspace
Predicition
Live data
Prediction comparison

Semifinal 2 Elite Men

14.06.2024 Kitzbühel AUT
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Europe Triathlon Cup Kitzbuhel

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.06.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 40/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 40.9 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error7.5
Mean swim error12.9 s
Mean bike-speed error2.00 km/h
Correct bike groups9/21
No history0
Within the 80% range9.1 %
Details
1 / 17 Léo Fernandez
FRA
+28 s
+16 s
G1 / G2
 9:01
10:18
 25:39
Show details
Prediction details: Léo Fernandez

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 11.5 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 44 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:01 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 1.68 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:18 (3:26 / km)
Error: −1:17 / −0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 25:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:10 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 9:01 (3:00 / km)
Total: 25:39
2 / 1 Jawad Abdelmoula
MAR
+32 s
+4 s
G2 / G1
 8:53
9:23
 25:40
Show details
Prediction details: Jawad Abdelmoula

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 6:08
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 28.3 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.23 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.7 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:53 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:23 (3:08 / km)
Error: −0:30 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 25:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:08 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 8:53 (2:58 / km)
Total: 25:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 0.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 16 Francesco Di Basilico
ITA
+41 s
+27 s
G2 / G2
correct 		8:58
9:48
 25:45
Show details
Prediction details: Francesco Di Basilico

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–11
Top-10 probability: 88 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 6:17
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 14.0 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:58 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:41 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 2.27 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:48 (3:16 / km)
Error: −0:50 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 25:45
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:17 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 8:58 (2:59 / km)
Total: 25:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:08
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 9.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 7 Hamish Reilly
GBR
+15 s
+11 s
G1 / G2
 9:17
9:06
 25:55
Show details
Prediction details: Hamish Reilly

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 5:51
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 3.8 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 5.6 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:17 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 1.61 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:06 (3:02 / km)
Error: +0:11 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 25:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:51 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:10 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 9:17 (3:06 / km)
Total: 25:55
5 / 8 Fabian Kraft
GER
+22 s
+10 s
G1 / G2
 9:29
9:05
 26:07
Show details
Prediction details: Fabian Kraft

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–7
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 5:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 11.7 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:29 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 1.62 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:05 (3:02 / km)
Error: +0:24 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 26:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:10 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 9:29 (3:10 / km)
Total: 26:07
6 / 9 Reuben Trotter
GBR
+34 s
+29 s
G2 / G2
correct 		9:29
9:12
 26:16
Show details
Prediction details: Reuben Trotter

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 3–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 6:10
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 5.0 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.85 %, Sicherheit 22 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 3.3 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:29 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:12 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 26:16
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:10 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 9:29 (3:10 / km)
Total: 26:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:09
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 0.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +33.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 3 Lachlan Jones
AUS
+3 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		9:39
9:53
 26:17
Show details
Prediction details: Lachlan Jones

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 1–10
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time: 5:39
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 2.0 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 1.73 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 10.2 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:39 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:53 (3:18 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 26:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:39 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:10 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 9:39 (3:13 / km)
Total: 26:17
8 / 13 Patrik Leitner
AUT
+21 s
+26 s
G1 / G2
 9:57
9:30
 26:35
Show details
Prediction details: Patrik Leitner

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 6–9
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 5:57
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: -5.5 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 20 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 85 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:57 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:30 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 26:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:57 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:10 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 9:57 (3:19 / km)
Total: 26:35
9 / 19 Jakob Meier
AUT
+38 s
+25 s
G2 / G2
correct 		9:52
11:06
 26:39
Show details
Prediction details: Jakob Meier

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 6–10
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 6:14
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 13.4 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 14 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:52 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:06 (3:42 / km)
Error: −1:14 / −0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 26:39
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 6:14 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 9:52 (3:17 / km)
Total: 26:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 6.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 21 Ryan Lund
USA
+54 s
+48 s
G3 / G3
correct 		9:30
10:11
 27:05
Show details
Prediction details: Ryan Lund

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 5–13
Top-10 probability: 65 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 6:30
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: 6.4 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 13.2 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:30 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:11 (3:24 / km)
Error: −0:41 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 27:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:30 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:36 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 9:30 (3:10 / km)
Total: 27:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 22.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 20 Davide Menichelli
ITA
+60 s
+35 s
G3 / G3
correct 		9:45
9:40
 27:20
Show details
Prediction details: Davide Menichelli

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 10–12
Top-10 probability: 39 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 6:36
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 24.7 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.64 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.9 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:45 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 1.88 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:40 (3:13 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 27:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:36 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:36 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 9:45 (3:15 / km)
Total: 27:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:19
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 17.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +42.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 5 Daniel Damian
CAN
+28 s
+4 s
G1 / G2
 11:04
8:59
 27:42
Show details
Prediction details: Daniel Damian

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 11–14
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 23.6 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 70 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 4.7 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:04 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 47 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:59 (3:00 / km)
Error: +2:05 / +0:42 / km
Overall prediction: 27:42
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:10 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 11:04 (3:41 / km)
Total: 27:42
13 / 6 Eric Diener
GER
+28 s
+16 s
G1 / G2
 11:12
9:01
 27:50
Show details
Prediction details: Eric Diener

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 12–16
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 11.6 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 69 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 60 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:12 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:01 (3:00 / km)
Error: +2:11 / +0:44 / km
Overall prediction: 27:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:10 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 11:12 (3:44 / km)
Total: 27:50
14 / 2 Till Kramp
GER
+25 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		11:24
9:47
 28:02
Show details
Prediction details: Till Kramp

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 13–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 6:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 24.8 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:24 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -1.25 %, Sicherheit 64 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:47 (3:16 / km)
Error: +1:37 / +0:32 / km
Overall prediction: 28:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:10 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 11:24 (3:48 / km)
Total: 28:02
15 / 22 Rick Van der Knaap
NED
+55 s
+68 s
G3 / G3
correct 		10:31
10:26
 28:06
Show details
Prediction details: Rick Van der Knaap

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 10–20
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 6:31
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +68 s
Fehler: -13.2 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 4.9 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:31 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:26 (3:29 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 28:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:31 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:36 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 10:31 (3:30 / km)
Total: 28:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:08
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 23.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 18 Peter Luftensteiner
AUT
+13 s
+7 s
G1 / G2
 11:28
10:42
 28:06
Show details
Prediction details: Peter Luftensteiner

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 14–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 5:49
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 6.2 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 1.17 %, Sicherheit 84 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 83 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.2 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:28 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 48 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:42 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:46 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 28:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:49 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:10 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 11:28 (3:49 / km)
Total: 28:06
17 / 4 Zsombor Dévay
HUN
+37 s
+8 s
G2 / G1
 11:37
9:57
 28:24
Show details
Prediction details: Zsombor Dévay

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 15–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 6:13
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 29.3 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 56 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.3 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:37 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:57 (3:19 / km)
Error: +1:40 / +0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 28:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:13 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 11:37 (3:52 / km)
Total: 28:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:10
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 15 Miguel Espuna Larramona
ITA
+20 s
+12 s
G1 / G2
 11:53
9:38
 28:31
Show details
Prediction details: Miguel Espuna Larramona

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 16–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 5:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 8.4 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 65 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.6 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:53 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.69 %, Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:38 (3:13 / km)
Error: +2:15 / +0:45 / km
Overall prediction: 28:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:56 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:10 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 11:53 (3:58 / km)
Total: 28:31
19 / 11 Thomas Windischbauer
AUT
+24 s
+23 s
G1 / G2
 12:03
9:20
 28:41
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Windischbauer

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 17–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 6:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 1.1 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 71 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:03 (4:01 / km)
Historical basis: 4:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.87 %, Sicherheit 47 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:20 (3:07 / km)
Error: +2:43 / +0:54 / km
Overall prediction: 28:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:10 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 12:03 (4:01 / km)
Total: 28:41
20 / 14 Oscar Lilja
SWE
+27 s
+25 s
G1 / G2
 12:13
9:35
 28:51
Show details
Prediction details: Oscar Lilja

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 18–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 6:03
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 2.2 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 55 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:13 (4:04 / km)
Historical basis: 4:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 50 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:35 (3:12 / km)
Error: +2:38 / +0:53 / km
Overall prediction: 28:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:03 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:10 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 12:13 (4:04 / km)
Total: 28:51
21 / 10 Linus Lehnen
GER
+41 s
+18 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:31
9:09
 32:18
Show details
Prediction details: Linus Lehnen

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 21–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 6:17
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 23.2 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 93 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 13.2 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:31 (5:10 / km)
Historical basis: 5:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:09 (3:03 / km)
Error: +6:22 / +2:07 / km
Overall prediction: 32:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:17 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 15:31 (5:10 / km)
Total: 32:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 9.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 12 Jonas Osterholt
GER
+22 s
 Bike DNF 9:09
Show details
Prediction details: Jonas Osterholt

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 22–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 5:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 85 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 9:09 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 9:09 (3:03 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.