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Semifinal 2 Elite Women

14.06.2024 Kitzbühel AUT
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Europe Triathlon Cup Kitzbuhel

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.06.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 55/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 69.6 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error6.5
Mean swim error13.5 s
Mean bike-speed error2.21 km/h
Correct bike groups4/23
No history0
Within the 80% range47.8 %
Details
1 / 3 Desirae Ridenour
CAN
+16 s
+30 s
G1 / G2
 10:27
10:34
 27:59
Show details
Prediction details: Desirae Ridenour

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 6:45
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: -14.2 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:27 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 1.02 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:34 (3:31 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 27:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:45 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:10 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 10:27 (3:29 / km)
Total: 27:59
2 / 10 Adelaide Anna Badini Confalonieri
ITA
+19 s
+16 s
G1 / G2
 10:36
10:40
 28:08
Show details
Prediction details: Adelaide Anna Badini Confalonieri

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–8
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 6:48
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 3.4 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:36 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 1.34 %, Sicherheit 14 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:40 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 28:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:48 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:10 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 10:36 (3:32 / km)
Total: 28:08
3 / 6 Myral Greco
TRI
+11 s
+28 s
G1 / G2
 10:54
10:42
 28:26
Show details
Prediction details: Myral Greco

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–13
Top-10 probability: 81 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 6:40
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: -17.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 70 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 3.3 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:54 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 1.62 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:42 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 28:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:40 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:10 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 10:54 (3:38 / km)
Total: 28:26
4 / 15 Finja Schierl
GER
+10 s
+21 s
G1 / G2
 10:55
11:21
 28:27
Show details
Prediction details: Finja Schierl

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 6:39
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: -10.6 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 87 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:55 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 1.55 %, Sicherheit 53 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:21 (3:47 / km)
Error: −0:26 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 28:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:39 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:10 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 10:55 (3:38 / km)
Total: 28:27
5 / 13 Giada Stegani
ITA
+10 s
+30 s
G1 / G2
 10:57
10:46
 28:29
Show details
Prediction details: Giada Stegani

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–8
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 6:39
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: -20.4 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 60 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.7 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:57 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 1.26 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:46 (3:35 / km)
Error: +0:11 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 28:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:39 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:10 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 10:57 (3:39 / km)
Total: 28:29
6 / 9 Charlotte Derbyshire
AUS
+30 s
+41 s
G2 / G3
 10:19
10:14
 28:38
Show details
Prediction details: Charlotte Derbyshire

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 1–11
Top-10 probability: 88 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 6:59
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: -10.8 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 14 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:19 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:14 (3:25 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 28:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:59 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:41 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 10:19 (3:26 / km)
Total: 28:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:52
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 6.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 2 Brea Roderick
NZL
+28 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 10:31
10:47
 28:50
Show details
Prediction details: Brea Roderick

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 2–10
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 6:57
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 28.2 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.83 %, Sicherheit 38 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.7 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:31 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 2.06 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:47 (3:36 / km)
Error: −0:16 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 28:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:57 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:41 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 10:31 (3:30 / km)
Total: 28:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:52
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 4.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 4 Isla Britton
CAN
+32 s
+33 s
G2 / G2
correct 		10:34
10:37
 28:53
Show details
Prediction details: Isla Britton

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 1–13
Top-10 probability: 79 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 7:01
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: -1.4 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:34 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 1.00 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:37 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 28:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:01 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:41 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 10:34 (3:31 / km)
Total: 28:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:53
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 8.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 16 Dana Prikrylova
CZE
+23 s
+33 s
G1 / G2
 11:49
11:21
 29:21
Show details
Prediction details: Dana Prikrylova

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 8–14
Top-10 probability: 44 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 6:52
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: -10.4 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:49 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 1.46 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:21 (3:47 / km)
Error: +0:28 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 29:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:52 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:10 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 11:49 (3:56 / km)
Total: 29:21
10 / 22 Melissa Funes
USA
+49 s
+42 s
G3 / G5
 10:53
11:16
 29:43
Show details
Prediction details: Melissa Funes

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 4–14
Top-10 probability: 60 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 7:18
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 6.9 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.4 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:53 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:16 (3:45 / km)
Error: −0:23 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 29:43
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:18 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 18:01 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 10:53 (3:38 / km)
Total: 29:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:53
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 25.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 11 Loanne Duvoisin
SUI
+76 s
+49 s
G4 / G3
 10:17
10:20
 29:44
Show details
Prediction details: Loanne Duvoisin

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 8–15
Top-10 probability: 41 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +76 s
Time: 7:45
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: 27.2 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 27.2 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:17 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 2.07 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:20 (3:27 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 29:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:45 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 18:11 (37.0 km/h)
Run: 10:17 (3:26 / km)
Total: 29:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:52
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 52.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 23 Martha Calton-Seal
GBR
+32 s
+67 s
G2 / G6
 11:26
11:26
 29:45
Show details
Prediction details: Martha Calton-Seal

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 8–15
Top-10 probability: 43 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 7:01
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +67 s
Fehler: -34.8 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 32.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:26 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 1.68 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:26 (3:49 / km)
Error: +0:00 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 29:45
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:01 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:41 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 11:26 (3:49 / km)
Total: 29:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:52
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 8.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 17 Hannah Howell
NZL
+14 s
+26 s
G1 / G2
 12:18
11:33
 29:50
Show details
Prediction details: Hannah Howell

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 7–18
Top-10 probability: 28 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 6:43
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: -11.7 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.99 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.3 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:18 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:33 (3:51 / km)
Error: +0:45 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 29:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:43 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:10 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 12:18 (4:06 / km)
Total: 29:50
14 / 14 Letizia Martinelli
SUI
+49 s
+42 s
G3 / G3
correct 		11:20
10:34
 30:10
Show details
Prediction details: Letizia Martinelli

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 8–16
Top-10 probability: 25 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 7:18
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 7.0 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -1.60 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 27.2 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:20 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 1.46 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:34 (3:31 / km)
Error: +0:46 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 30:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:18 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 18:01 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 11:20 (3:47 / km)
Total: 30:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:53
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 25.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 18 Marit Van Den Berg
NED
+38 s
+38 s
G2 / G3
 11:52
11:25
 30:11
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Prediction details: Marit Van Den Berg

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 7–23
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 7:07
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: 0.3 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:52 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 1.32 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:25 (3:48 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 30:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:07 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:41 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 11:52 (3:57 / km)
Total: 30:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:52
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 14.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 8 Celia Merle
FRA
+11 s
+14 s
G1 / G2
 13:00
10:39
 30:32
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Prediction details: Celia Merle

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 14–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 6:40
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: -3.0 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 74 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 66 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:00 (4:20 / km)
Historical basis: 4:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -1.39 %, Sicherheit 48 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:39 (3:33 / km)
Error: +2:21 / +0:47 / km
Overall prediction: 30:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:40 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:10 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 13:00 (4:20 / km)
Total: 30:32
17 / 1 Anabel Knoll
GER
+4 s
+11 s
G1 / G1
correct 		13:02
10:47
 30:34
Show details
Prediction details: Anabel Knoll

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 14–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +4 s
Time: 6:33
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: -7.1 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 5.7 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:02 (4:21 / km)
Historical basis: 4:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -1.59 %, Sicherheit 50 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:47 (3:36 / km)
Error: +2:15 / +0:45 / km
Overall prediction: 30:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:33 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:10 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 13:02 (4:21 / km)
Total: 30:34
18 / 21 Leonie Hauser
AUT
+36 s
+47 s
G2 / G4
 12:24
12:20
 30:43
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Prediction details: Leonie Hauser

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 14–19
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 7:05
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: -11.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.88 %, Sicherheit 45 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.3 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:24 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 2.32 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:20 (4:07 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 30:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:05 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:41 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 12:24 (4:08 / km)
Total: 30:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:53
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 12.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 7 Paola Sacchi
ITA
+15 s
+39 s
G1 / G2
 13:48
10:41
 31:20
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Prediction details: Paola Sacchi

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 18–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 6:44
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: -23.7 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:48 (4:36 / km)
Historical basis: 4:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:41 (3:34 / km)
Error: +3:07 / +1:02 / km
Overall prediction: 31:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:44 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:10 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 13:48 (4:36 / km)
Total: 31:20
20 / 20 Matilde Locatelli
ITA
+31 s
+51 s
G2 / G4
 13:15
11:17
 31:34
Show details
Prediction details: Matilde Locatelli

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 17–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 7:00
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: -20.3 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 56 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 34.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:15 (4:25 / km)
Historical basis: 4:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -1.04 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:17 (3:46 / km)
Error: +1:58 / +0:39 / km
Overall prediction: 31:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:00 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:41 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 13:15 (4:25 / km)
Total: 31:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:53
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 7.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 19 Johanna Uherek
GER
+25 s
+45 s
G2 / G4
 13:48
10:56
 32:07
Show details
Prediction details: Johanna Uherek

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 19–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 6:54
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: -20.5 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 48 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 3.7 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:48 (4:36 / km)
Historical basis: 4:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -1.15 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:56 (3:39 / km)
Error: +2:52 / +0:57 / km
Overall prediction: 32:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:54 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:41 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 13:48 (4:36 / km)
Total: 32:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:53
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 12 Livia Wespe
SUI
+42 s
+36 s
G3 / G3
correct 		13:36
10:26
 32:26
Show details
Prediction details: Livia Wespe

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 21–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 7:11
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 5.5 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 56 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 7.4 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:36 (4:32 / km)
Historical basis: 4:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -1.01 %, Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:26 (3:29 / km)
Error: +3:10 / +1:03 / km
Overall prediction: 32:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:11 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 18:01 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 13:36 (4:32 / km)
Total: 32:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:53
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 18 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 5 Carina Reicht
AUT
+33 s
+47 s
G2 / G3
 14:09
10:13
 32:28
Show details
Prediction details: Carina Reicht

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 21–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 7:02
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: -14.3 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 85 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 3.3 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:09 (4:43 / km)
Historical basis: 4:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -2.38 %, Sicherheit 47 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:13 (3:24 / km)
Error: +3:56 / +1:19 / km
Overall prediction: 32:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:02 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:41 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 14:09 (4:43 / km)
Total: 32:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:53
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 9.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.