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Semifinal 3 Elite Men

14.06.2024 Kitzbühel AUT
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Europe Triathlon Cup Kitzbuhel

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.06.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 47/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 54.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error6.5
Mean swim error9.8 s
Mean bike-speed error1.30 km/h
Correct bike groups6/22
No history0
Within the 80% range27.3 %
Details
1 / 9 Jannik Schaufler
GER
+16 s
+13 s
G1 / G2
 8:52
9:04
 25:22
Show details
Prediction details: Jannik Schaufler

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 5:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 3.3 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 32 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 83 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:52 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 1.45 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:04 (3:01 / km)
Error: −0:12 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 25:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:07 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 8:52 (2:57 / km)
Total: 25:22
2 / 7 Arnaud Mengal
BEL
+23 s
+24 s
G1 / G2
 8:54
8:57
 25:24
Show details
Prediction details: Arnaud Mengal

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 6:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -0.9 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 5.3 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:54 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 2.18 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:57 (2:59 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 25:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:07 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 8:54 (2:58 / km)
Total: 25:24
3 / 8 Jayden Schofield
AUS
+17 s
+23 s
G1 / G2
 9:20
9:05
 25:50
Show details
Prediction details: Jayden Schofield

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–10
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 5:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: -5.6 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 32 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 56 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 3.5 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:20 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 1.10 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:05 (3:02 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 25:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:59 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:07 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 9:20 (3:07 / km)
Total: 25:50
4 / 11 Luke Schofield
AUS
+16 s
+20 s
G1 / G2
 9:22
9:21
 25:52
Show details
Prediction details: Luke Schofield

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 1–11
Top-10 probability: 86 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 5:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: -4.0 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 1.37 %, Sicherheit 49 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:22 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 1.30 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:21 (3:07 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 25:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:07 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 9:22 (3:07 / km)
Total: 25:52
5 / 2 Dominic Coy
GBR
+28 s
+10 s
G2 / G2
correct 		8:59
8:55
 26:03
Show details
Prediction details: Dominic Coy

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 1–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 6:10
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 18.4 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -1.32 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.3 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:59 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 1.44 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:55 (2:58 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 26:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:10 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:28 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 8:59 (3:00 / km)
Total: 26:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:09
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 1.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 15 Tomas Zikmund
CZE
+11 s
+19 s
G1 / G2
 9:41
10:26
 26:11
Show details
Prediction details: Tomas Zikmund

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 3–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 5:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: -8.3 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 32 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:41 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.83 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:26 (3:29 / km)
Error: −0:45 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 26:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:53 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:07 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 9:41 (3:14 / km)
Total: 26:11
7 / 13 Henning Scholl
GER
+33 s
+12 s
G2 / G2
correct 		9:27
9:30
 26:31
Show details
Prediction details: Henning Scholl

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–9
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 6:15
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 20.8 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:27 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:30 (3:10 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 26:31
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:15 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:28 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 9:27 (3:09 / km)
Total: 26:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
8 / 4 Itamar Levanon
ISR
+33 s
+23 s
G2 / G2
correct 		9:39
9:01
 26:43
Show details
Prediction details: Itamar Levanon

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–13
Top-10 probability: 79 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 6:15
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 10.1 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:39 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:01 (3:00 / km)
Error: +0:38 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 26:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:15 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:28 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 9:39 (3:13 / km)
Total: 26:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:09
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 6.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 17 Gabriel Barac
CRO
+31 s
+38 s
G2 / G4
 9:41
9:53
 26:45
Show details
Prediction details: Gabriel Barac

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 5–11
Top-10 probability: 85 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 6:13
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: -7.2 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 53 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:41 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:53 (3:18 / km)
Error: −0:12 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 26:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:13 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:28 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 9:41 (3:14 / km)
Total: 26:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:09
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 3.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 6 Jaspar Ortfeld
GER
+55 s
+23 s
G4 / G2
 9:03
9:03
 27:28
Show details
Prediction details: Jaspar Ortfeld

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 4–17
Top-10 probability: 69 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 6:37
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 32.1 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.82 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:03 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:03 (3:01 / km)
Error: +0:00 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 27:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:37 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:30 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 9:03 (3:01 / km)
Total: 27:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 30.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 3 Euan De Nigro
ITA
+22 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		11:09
9:21
 27:39
Show details
Prediction details: Euan De Nigro

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 10–14
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 6:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 21.5 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 95 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:09 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.84 %, Sicherheit 66 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:21 (3:07 / km)
Error: +1:48 / +0:36 / km
Overall prediction: 27:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:07 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 11:09 (3:43 / km)
Total: 27:39
12 / 20 Klemens Oberleithner
AUT
+35 s
+22 s
G2 / G4
 10:43
11:07
 27:47
Show details
Prediction details: Klemens Oberleithner

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 9–20
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 6:17
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 13.0 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:43 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 1.32 %, Sicherheit 14 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:07 (3:42 / km)
Error: −0:24 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 27:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:17 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:28 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 10:43 (3:34 / km)
Total: 27:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:09
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 10 Jan Bader
AUT
+23 s
+12 s
G1 / G2
 11:20
9:05
 27:50
Show details
Prediction details: Jan Bader

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 11–16
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 6:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 10.9 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:20 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -1.53 %, Sicherheit 78 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:05 (3:02 / km)
Error: +2:15 / +0:45 / km
Overall prediction: 27:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:07 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 11:20 (3:47 / km)
Total: 27:50
14 / 22 Belmin Godinjak
BIH
+48 s
+49 s
G3 / G4
 10:02
12:35
 27:52
Show details
Prediction details: Belmin Godinjak

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 10–17
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 6:30
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: -1.4 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 14 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:02 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:35 (4:12 / km)
Error: −2:33 / −0:51 / km
Overall prediction: 27:52
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:30 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:01 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 10:02 (3:21 / km)
Total: 27:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 23.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 1 Pietro Giovannini
ITA
+7 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		11:22
9:16
 27:52
Show details
Prediction details: Pietro Giovannini

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 12–15
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 5:49
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 5.8 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 65 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:22 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:16 (3:05 / km)
Error: +2:06 / +0:42 / km
Overall prediction: 27:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:49 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:07 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 11:22 (3:47 / km)
Total: 27:52
16 / 21 Dániel Holba
HUN
+47 s
+47 s
G3 / G5
 10:15
10:20
 28:05
Show details
Prediction details: Dániel Holba

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 10–18
Top-10 probability: 20 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 6:29
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: -0.2 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.4 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:15 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 1.10 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:20 (3:27 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 28:05
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:29 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:01 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 10:15 (3:25 / km)
Total: 28:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 22.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 19 Jan Alb
AUT
+49 s
+35 s
G3 / G4
 10:22
10:09
 28:12
Show details
Prediction details: Jan Alb

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 10–19
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 6:31
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 14.1 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 6.0 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:22 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:09 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 28:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:31 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:01 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 10:22 (3:27 / km)
Total: 28:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 24.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 12 Pablo Isotton
FRA
+15 s
+14 s
G1 / G2
 11:57
9:22
 28:27
Show details
Prediction details: Pablo Isotton

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 17–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 5:57
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 1.4 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 66 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:57 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 4:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.82 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:22 (3:07 / km)
Error: +2:35 / +0:52 / km
Overall prediction: 28:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:57 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:07 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 11:57 (3:59 / km)
Total: 28:27
19 / 16 Neilan Kempmann
GER
+21 s
+15 s
G1 / G3
 11:58
10:23
 28:28
Show details
Prediction details: Neilan Kempmann

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 17–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 6:03
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 5.9 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 87 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:58 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -1.05 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:23 (3:28 / km)
Error: +1:35 / +0:32 / km
Overall prediction: 28:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:03 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:07 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 11:58 (3:59 / km)
Total: 28:28
20 / 14 Hayden Woodrow
CAN
+14 s
+12 s
G1 / G2
 12:06
9:45
 28:36
Show details
Prediction details: Hayden Woodrow

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 17–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 5:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 1.9 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:06 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -1.02 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:45 (3:15 / km)
Error: +2:21 / +0:47 / km
Overall prediction: 28:36
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:56 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:07 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 12:06 (4:02 / km)
Total: 28:36
21 / 5 Veikka Saren
FIN
+32 s
+20 s
G2 / G2
correct 		11:34
9:01
 28:38
Show details
Prediction details: Veikka Saren

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 15–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 6:14
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 12.2 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 97 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:34 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -1.62 %, Sicherheit 73 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:01 (3:00 / km)
Error: +2:33 / +0:51 / km
Overall prediction: 28:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:14 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:28 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 11:34 (3:51 / km)
Total: 28:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:09
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 5.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 18 Noah Künz
AUT
+36 s
+20 s
G2 / G4
 12:43
9:59
 29:47
Show details
Prediction details: Noah Künz

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 22–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 6:18
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 16.4 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 92 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 10.4 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 12:43 (4:14 / km)
Historical basis: 4:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -1.41 %, Sicherheit 53 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:59 (3:20 / km)
Error: +2:44 / +0:55 / km
Overall prediction: 29:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:18 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:28 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 12:43 (4:14 / km)
Total: 29:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:09
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 9.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.