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Prediction comparison

Elite Women

14.04.2024 Melilla ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Europe Triathlon Cup Melilla

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.04.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 58/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 76.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 95.3 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error9.1
Mean swim error14.0 s
Mean bike-speed error1.02 km/h
Correct bike groups8/43
No history0
Within the 80% range34.9 %
Details
1 / 6 Sandra Dodet
FRA
+14 s
+28 s
G2 / G2
correct
16:34
16:43
44:49
Show details
Prediction details: Sandra Dodet

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 3–8
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: -13.6 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s

Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:34 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.72 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 16:43 (3:21 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 44:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 16:34 (3:19 / km)
Total: 44:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 10.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 1 Emma Lombardi
FRA
+16 s
+9 s
G2 / G1
16:34
16:38
44:49
Show details
Prediction details: Emma Lombardi

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–7
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 6.6 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 56 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s

Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:34 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 44:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 16:34 (3:19 / km)
Total: 44:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 11.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 3 Sophie Evans
GBR
+5 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
16:53
17:14
45:08
Show details
Prediction details: Sophie Evans

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 4–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +5 s
Time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 5.0 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 5.0 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s

Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:53 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 17:14 (3:27 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 45:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 16:53 (3:23 / km)
Total: 45:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 1.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 2 Kate Waugh
GBR
+13 s
+9 s
G2 / G1
17:02
16:52
45:17
Show details
Prediction details: Kate Waugh

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–9
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 4.4 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 55 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 73 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s

Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 16:52 (3:22 / km)
Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 45:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:41 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Total: 45:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 9.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 8 Bianca Seregni
ITA
+5 s
+10 s
G2 / G2
correct
17:06
16:59
45:21
Show details
Prediction details: Bianca Seregni

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +5 s
Time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: -5.0 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 63 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s

Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:06 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 55 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 16:59 (3:24 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 45:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 17:06 (3:25 / km)
Total: 45:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 1.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 14 Cecilia Santamaria Surroca
ESP
+23 s
+10 s
G3 / G2
17:14
17:41
45:41
Show details
Prediction details: Cecilia Santamaria Surroca

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 7–11
Top-10 probability: 83 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 13.0 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 82 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 5.0 s

Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:14 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 45:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:04 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 17:14 (3:27 / km)
Total: 45:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 19.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 12 Kristelle Congi
FRA
+28 s
+35 s
G4 / G2
17:07
17:42
45:46
Show details
Prediction details: Kristelle Congi

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 5–14
Top-10 probability: 69 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -7.0 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.69 %, Sicherheit 44 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 5.0 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s

Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:07 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 40 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 17:42 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:35 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 45:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:57 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 17:07 (3:25 / km)
Total: 45:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 24.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 4 Mathilde Gautier
FRA
+9 s
+7 s
G2 / G1
17:44
17:40
45:59
Show details
Prediction details: Mathilde Gautier

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 9–14
Top-10 probability: 48 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 2.1 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 79 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.7 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s

Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:44 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 78 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 17:40 (3:32 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 45:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:37 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 17:44 (3:33 / km)
Total: 45:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 5.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 9 Lea Coninx
FRA
+34 s
+37 s
G4 / G2
17:31
17:13
46:10
Show details
Prediction details: Lea Coninx

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 8–25
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: -2.8 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 72 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s

Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:31 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 17:13 (3:27 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 46:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:57 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 17:31 (3:30 / km)
Total: 46:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 30.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 11 María Casals Mojica
ESP
+34 s
+37 s
G4 / G2
17:39
17:34
46:18
Show details
Prediction details: María Casals Mojica

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 11–24
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: -3.3 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 89 Duelle, Korrektur 0.79 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s

Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:39 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 46:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:57 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 17:39 (3:32 / km)
Total: 46:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 29.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 18 Celia Merle
FRA
+21 s
+22 s
G3 / G2
17:52
17:52
46:19
Show details
Prediction details: Celia Merle

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 11–16
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: -1.4 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s

Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:00 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 46:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:04 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Total: 46:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 16.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 5 Sophia Green
GBR
+29 s
+4 s
G4 / G1
17:51
17:47
46:30
Show details
Prediction details: Sophia Green

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 9–23
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:57
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 24.9 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s

Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 82 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 17:47 (3:33 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 46:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:57 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Total: 46:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 25 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 10 Carlotta Missaglia
ITA
+40 s
+32 s
G4 / G2
17:56
17:31
46:35
Show details
Prediction details: Carlotta Missaglia

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 14–23
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 7.6 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s

Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:56 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 56 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 17:31 (3:30 / km)
Error: +0:25 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 46:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:57 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 17:56 (3:35 / km)
Total: 46:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 35.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 35 Myral Greco
TRI
+19 s
+11 s
G3 / G2
18:08
20:21
46:35
Show details
Prediction details: Myral Greco

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 9–23
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:47
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 8.1 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s

Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 58 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 20:21 (4:04 / km)
Error: −2:13 / −0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 46:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:04 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Total: 46:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 15.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 23 Giada Stegani
ITA
+12 s
+35 s
G2 / G2
correct
18:29
18:35
46:44
Show details
Prediction details: Giada Stegani

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 12–25
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -22.9 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 71 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s

Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 18:35 (3:43 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 46:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Total: 46:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 8.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 29 Daryna Moskalenko
UKR
+36 s
+45 s
G4 / G4
correct
18:08
18:13
46:47
Show details
Prediction details: Daryna Moskalenko

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 15–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: -9.2 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 3.8 s

Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 46:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:57 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Total: 46:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 31.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 33 Iratxe Arenal Arribas
ESP
+42 s
+36 s
G4 / G2
18:13
20:10
46:52
Show details
Prediction details: Iratxe Arenal Arribas

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 17–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 6.0 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s

Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 80 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 20:10 (4:02 / km)
Error: −1:57 / −0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 46:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:10 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:57 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Total: 46:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 38.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 17 Natalia Castro Santos
ESP
+32 s
+42 s
G4 / G2
18:14
17:47
46:53
Show details
Prediction details: Natalia Castro Santos

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 14–26
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 10:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -9.9 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s

Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:14 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 17:47 (3:33 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 46:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:57 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 18:14 (3:39 / km)
Total: 46:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 28.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 32 Katrien Maes
BEL
+33 s
+43 s
G4 / G4
correct
18:17
18:32
46:56
Show details
Prediction details: Katrien Maes

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 13–30
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: -9.9 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s

Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:17 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 18:32 (3:42 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 46:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:57 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 18:17 (3:39 / km)
Total: 46:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 29.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 39 Maryna Kyryk
UKR
+5 s
+34 s
G2 / G6
18:43
18:54
46:58
Show details
Prediction details: Maryna Kyryk

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 6–37
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 39
Deviation: -19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +5 s
Time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: -28.6 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.61 %, Sicherheit 33 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 83 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 3.7 s

Result: Group 6 (3 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:43 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 18:54 (3:47 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 46:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 18:43 (3:45 / km)
Total: 46:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 1.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 7 Alissa Konig
SUI
+44 s
+33 s
G5 / G2
18:05
16:49
47:01
Show details
Prediction details: Alissa Konig

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 17–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 11.0 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s

Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:05 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -1.11 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 16:49 (3:22 / km)
Error: +1:16 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 47:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:12 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 18:05 (3:37 / km)
Total: 47:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 40.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 25 Appoline Foltz
FRA
+28 s
+35 s
G4 / G2
18:23
18:48
47:02
Show details
Prediction details: Appoline Foltz

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 12–31
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -6.8 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s

Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:23 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 74 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 47:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:57 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 18:23 (3:41 / km)
Total: 47:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 24.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 24 Sofía Aguayo Mauri
ESP
+35 s
+40 s
G4 / G2
18:31
18:34
47:10
Show details
Prediction details: Sofía Aguayo Mauri

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 20–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: -5.2 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 98 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s

Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:31 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 18:34 (3:43 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 47:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:57 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 18:31 (3:42 / km)
Total: 47:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 30.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 26 Sofiya Pryyma
UKR
+29 s
+61 s
G4 / G2
18:33
18:59
47:12
Show details
Prediction details: Sofiya Pryyma

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 17–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:57
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: -32.2 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 1.02 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s

Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 18:59 (3:48 / km)
Error: −0:26 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 47:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:57 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Total: 47:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 24.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 36 Michaela Sterbova
CZE
+16 s
+48 s
G2 / G5
18:57
18:55
47:12
Show details
Prediction details: Michaela Sterbova

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 16–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: -32.5 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 88 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s

Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:57 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 56 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 18:55 (3:47 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 47:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 18:57 (3:47 / km)
Total: 47:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 11.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 16 Marie Wattiez
FRA
+55 s
+42 s
G6 / G2
18:07
17:47
47:14
Show details
Prediction details: Marie Wattiez

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 21–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 13.0 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 63 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 7.0 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s

Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:07 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 63 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 17:47 (3:33 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 47:14
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:12 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 18:07 (3:37 / km)
Total: 47:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 51.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 20 Borbála Sarcia
HUN
+47 s
+42 s
G5 / G2
18:20
18:05
47:16
Show details
Prediction details: Borbála Sarcia

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 18–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 4.8 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s

Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:20 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 18:05 (3:37 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 47:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 18:20 (3:40 / km)
Total: 47:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 42.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 37 Clara Carlquist
DEN
+35 s
+47 s
G4 / G4
correct
18:46
19:15
47:25
Show details
Prediction details: Clara Carlquist

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 24–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 37
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: -11.7 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 96 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s

Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:46 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 56 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 19:15 (3:51 / km)
Error: −0:29 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 47:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:57 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 18:46 (3:45 / km)
Total: 47:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 31.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 22 Maria Alzaga Criado
ESP
+36 s
+40 s
G4 / G2
19:04
18:25
47:43
Show details
Prediction details: Maria Alzaga Criado

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 26–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: -4.3 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s

Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:04 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Error: +0:39 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 47:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:57 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 19:04 (3:49 / km)
Total: 47:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 31.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 19 Paula Del Pozo Borrachero
ESP
+46 s
+45 s
G5 / G2
18:48
18:02
47:44
Show details
Prediction details: Paula Del Pozo Borrachero

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 21–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 10:14
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: 0.9 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s

Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur -0.59 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Error: +0:46 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 47:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Total: 47:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 42 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 15 Ana Carballo Gómez
ESP
+48 s
+42 s
G5 / G2
18:53
17:35
47:49
Show details
Prediction details: Ana Carballo Gómez

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 27–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 6.0 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 83 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 7.0 s

Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:53 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 80 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 17:35 (3:31 / km)
Error: +1:18 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 47:49
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 18:53 (3:47 / km)
Total: 47:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 44.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 34 Léonie Douche
FRA
+21 s
+41 s
G3 / G3
correct
19:35
19:53
48:02
Show details
Prediction details: Léonie Douche

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 29–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: -20.3 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s

Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:35 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 19:53 (3:59 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 48:02
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:04 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 19:35 (3:55 / km)
Total: 48:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 16.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 27 Elsa Pena Vicente
ESP
+31 s
+42 s
G4 / G2
19:37
19:18
48:16
Show details
Prediction details: Elsa Pena Vicente

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 31–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -11.0 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 67 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s

Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:37 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 68 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 19:18 (3:52 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 48:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:57 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 19:37 (3:55 / km)
Total: 48:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 27.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 38 María Barceló Serra
ESP
+31 s
+41 s
G4 / G4
correct
19:45
19:31
48:24
Show details
Prediction details: María Barceló Serra

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 32–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 38
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: -10.4 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s

Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:45 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 19:31 (3:54 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 48:24
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:57 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 19:45 (3:57 / km)
Total: 48:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 26.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 31 Désirée Gmür
SUI
+55 s
+46 s
G6 / G3
19:30
19:31
48:37
Show details
Prediction details: Désirée Gmür

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 34–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: 9.4 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 7.0 s

Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:30 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 80 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 19:31 (3:54 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 48:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:12 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 19:30 (3:54 / km)
Total: 48:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 51.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 13 Lucia Acosta Suarez
ESP
+70 s
+46 s
G7 / G2
18:51
17:31
49:11
Show details
Prediction details: Lucia Acosta Suarez

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 30–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +70 s
Time: 10:38
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: 24.2 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.8 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s

Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:51 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 17:31 (3:30 / km)
Error: +1:20 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 49:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:38 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:05 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 18:51 (3:46 / km)
Total: 49:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 66.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 21 Marina Muñoz Hernando
ESP
+73 s
+50 s
G7 / G2
19:01
18:14
49:21
Show details
Prediction details: Marina Muñoz Hernando

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 31–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +73 s
Time: 10:41
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: 23.0 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 66 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s

Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:01 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 66 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 18:14 (3:39 / km)
Error: +0:47 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 49:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:41 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:05 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 19:01 (3:48 / km)
Total: 49:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 69.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 41 Isabel María Navarro García
ESP
+72 s
+67 s
G7 / G6
19:39
20:42
49:59
Show details
Prediction details: Isabel María Navarro García

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 40–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 41
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +72 s
Time: 10:40
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +67 s
Fehler: 5.0 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 63 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s

Result: Group 6 (3 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:39 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 63 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 20:42 (4:08 / km)
Error: −1:03 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 49:59
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:40 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:05 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 19:39 (3:56 / km)
Total: 49:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 68.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 28 Loanne Duvoisin
SUI
+130 s
+98 s
G8 / G5
18:18
17:39
50:04
Show details
Prediction details: Loanne Duvoisin

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 39–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +130 s
Time: 11:38
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +98 s
Fehler: 31.9 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 8 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 54.5 s
Gap behind: –

Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:18 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 17:39 (3:32 / km)
Error: +0:39 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 50:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:38 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:37 (36.5 km/h)
Run: 18:18 (3:40 / km)
Total: 50:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 126 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
40 / 30 Gemma Frigola García
ESP
+75 s
+56 s
G7 / G5
20:02
17:52
50:22
Show details
Prediction details: Gemma Frigola García

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 41–43
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +75 s
Time: 10:43
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: 19.4 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 54.5 s

Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:02 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances

Ergebnis Lauf: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Error: +2:10 / +0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 50:22
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:43 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:05 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 20:02 (4:00 / km)
Total: 50:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 71.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 42 Ema Beke
SVK
+62 s
+76 s
G7 / G5
21:47
21:54
52:07
Show details
Prediction details: Ema Beke

Placement

Prediction: 41
80% range: 40–43
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 42
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +76 s
Fehler: -13.6 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.0 s
Gap behind: 7.8 s

Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:47 (4:21 / km)
Historical basis: 4:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Ergebnis Lauf: 21:54 (4:23 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 52:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:30 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:05 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 21:47 (4:21 / km)
Total: 52:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 58.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 40 Ana Maria Santiso Prado
ESP
+17 s
+49 s
G2 / G6
19:41
Show details
Prediction details: Ana Maria Santiso Prado

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 40
Deviation: -40

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: -32.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s

Result: Group 6 (3 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances

Ergebnis Lauf: 19:41 (3:56 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (38.6 km/h)
Run:
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 13.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 43 Marta Roman Jímenez
ESP
+0 s
+83 s
G1 / G7
22:19
Show details
Prediction details: Marta Roman Jímenez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 43
Deviation: -43

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +83 s
Fehler: -83.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 5.0 s

Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances

Ergebnis Lauf: 22:19 (4:28 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:42 (40.5 km/h)
Run:
Total: not fully calculable