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Elite Women

25.05.2024 Olsztyn POL
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Europe Triathlon Cup Olsztyn

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 25.05.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 64/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 88.6 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error8.1
Mean swim error13.3 s
Mean bike-speed error1.01 km/h
Correct bike groups9/33
No history0
Within the 80% range48.6 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 17 Jule Behrens
GER
+16 s
+40 s
G1 / G3
 16:53
17:15
 48:06
Show details
Prediction details: Jule Behrens

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: -23.6 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 70 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.4 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:53 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 86 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:15 (3:27 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 48:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 16:53 (3:23 / km)
Total: 48:06
2 / 4 Lea Coninx
FRA
+23 s
+37 s
G1 / G2
 17:20
17:34
 48:33
Show details
Prediction details: Lea Coninx

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–9
Top-10 probability: 93 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: -13.9 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:20 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 48:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:11 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 17:20 (3:28 / km)
Total: 48:33
3 / 10 Sophia Green
GBR
+12 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:42
18:48
 48:55
Show details
Prediction details: Sophia Green

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–12
Top-10 probability: 84 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 10:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 12.0 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 74 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 4.4 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:42 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 1.52 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Error: −1:06 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 48:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 17:42 (3:32 / km)
Total: 48:55
4 / 9 Kristelle Congi
FRA
+24 s
+20 s
G1 / G2
 17:42
18:02
 48:55
Show details
Prediction details: Kristelle Congi

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 4.1 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:42 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Error: −0:20 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 48:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:12 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 17:42 (3:32 / km)
Total: 48:55
5 / 16 Finja Schierl
GER
+19 s
+18 s
G1 / G2
 17:55
18:42
 49:08
Show details
Prediction details: Finja Schierl

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 6–11
Top-10 probability: 84 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 1.0 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 55 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:55 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 96 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:42 (3:44 / km)
Error: −0:47 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 49:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 17:55 (3:35 / km)
Total: 49:08
6 / 8 Julia Bröcker
GER
+27 s
+24 s
G1 / G2
 18:05
17:51
 49:18
Show details
Prediction details: Julia Bröcker

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–18
Top-10 probability: 55 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 2.7 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:05 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 49:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 18:05 (3:37 / km)
Total: 49:18
7 / 1 Franka Rust
GER
+45 s
+24 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:23
17:00
 49:22
Show details
Prediction details: Franka Rust

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–21
Top-10 probability: 39 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 10:33
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 21.3 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.83 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:23 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:00 (3:24 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 49:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:33 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:14 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 17:23 (3:29 / km)
Total: 49:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 15 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 3 Barbara De Koning
NED
+26 s
+19 s
G1 / G2
 18:14
17:18
 49:27
Show details
Prediction details: Barbara De Koning

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 8–17
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 10:14
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 7.1 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -1.24 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:14 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.59 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Error: +0:56 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 49:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 18:14 (3:39 / km)
Total: 49:27
9 / 12 Magdalena Sudak
POL
+30 s
+17 s
G1 / G2
 18:14
18:29
 49:27
Show details
Prediction details: Magdalena Sudak

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 8–22
Top-10 probability: 28 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 12.5 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.62 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:14 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.62 %, Sicherheit 65 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 49:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 18:14 (3:39 / km)
Total: 49:27
10 / 11 Asia Mercatelli
ITA
+35 s
+24 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:29
18:08
 49:28
Show details
Prediction details: Asia Mercatelli

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 4–14
Top-10 probability: 74 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 10.8 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 3.5 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:29 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.99 %, Sicherheit 97 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Error: −0:39 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 49:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:14 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 17:29 (3:30 / km)
Total: 49:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 4.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 5 Rebecca Beti
SUI
+38 s
+21 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:43
17:34
 49:42
Show details
Prediction details: Rebecca Beti

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 5–19
Top-10 probability: 50 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 10:26
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 17.3 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.74 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:43 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 70 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Error: +0:09 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 49:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:26 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:14 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 17:43 (3:33 / km)
Total: 49:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 6 Iona Miller
GBR
+32 s
+12 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:48
17:29
 49:47
Show details
Prediction details: Iona Miller

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 4–17
Top-10 probability: 56 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 10:20
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 20.0 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:48 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 88 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:29 (3:30 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 49:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:20 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:14 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 17:48 (3:34 / km)
Total: 49:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 1.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 7 Nele Dequae
BEL
+30 s
+25 s
G1 / G2
 18:34
17:40
 49:47
Show details
Prediction details: Nele Dequae

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 11–18
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 4.7 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:34 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 79 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:40 (3:32 / km)
Error: +0:54 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 49:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 18:34 (3:43 / km)
Total: 49:47
14 / 2 Tjasa Vrtacic
SLO
+12 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:37
17:56
 49:50
Show details
Prediction details: Tjasa Vrtacic

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 2–23
Top-10 probability: 41 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 10:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 10.7 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 74 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:37 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:56 (3:35 / km)
Error: +0:41 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 49:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 18:37 (3:43 / km)
Total: 49:50
15 / 18 Michaela Sterbova
CZE
+26 s
+3 s
G1 / G2
 18:48
18:54
 50:01
Show details
Prediction details: Michaela Sterbova

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 13–24
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 10:14
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 22.5 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 79 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:54 (3:47 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 50:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Total: 50:01
16 / 32 Eleonora Demarchi
ITA
+45 s
+66 s
G2 / G5
 18:17
18:50
 50:16
Show details
Prediction details: Eleonora Demarchi

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 11–29
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 10:33
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +66 s
Fehler: -21.5 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.99 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:17 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:50 (3:46 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 50:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:33 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:14 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 18:17 (3:39 / km)
Total: 50:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 14.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 24 Eva Cornelisse
NED
+40 s
+34 s
G2 / G3
 18:33
18:33
 50:32
Show details
Prediction details: Eva Cornelisse

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 14–24
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: 6.3 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 47 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Error: +0:00 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 50:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:28 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:14 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Total: 50:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 10 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 21 Clara Carlquist
DEN
+41 s
+22 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:48
19:20
 50:47
Show details
Prediction details: Clara Carlquist

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 11–30
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 18.7 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 3.8 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:20 (3:52 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 50:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:29 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:14 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Total: 50:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 10.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 29 Isabel Sterr
GER
+40 s
+37 s
G2 / G3
 18:49
19:28
 50:48
Show details
Prediction details: Isabel Sterr

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 17–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 2.7 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Error: −0:39 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 50:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:28 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:14 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Total: 50:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 9.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 27 Matilde Locatelli
ITA
+28 s
+43 s
G1 / G3
 19:35
18:53
 50:48
Show details
Prediction details: Matilde Locatelli

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 18–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: -15.3 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:35 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -1.42 %, Sicherheit 74 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:53 (3:47 / km)
Error: +0:42 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 50:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 19:35 (3:55 / km)
Total: 50:48
21 / 13 Léonie Douche
FRA
+28 s
+21 s
G1 / G2
 19:52
18:33
 51:05
Show details
Prediction details: Léonie Douche

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 19–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 6.7 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:52 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Error: +1:19 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 51:05
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 19:52 (3:58 / km)
Total: 51:05
22 / 34 Noémi Van der Kaaij
SUI
+28 s
+44 s
G1 / G3
 19:52
21:29
 51:05
Show details
Prediction details: Noémi Van der Kaaij

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 19–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: -15.9 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 50 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:52 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.80 %, Sicherheit 47 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:29 (4:18 / km)
Error: −1:37 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 51:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 19:52 (3:58 / km)
Total: 51:05
23 / 28 Lara Thekla Ungewickell
GER
+46 s
+41 s
G3 / G3
correct 		17:57
18:55
 51:11
Show details
Prediction details: Lara Thekla Ungewickell

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 7–25
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 10:34
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: 5.3 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 71 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.87 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:55 (3:47 / km)
Error: −0:58 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 51:11
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:34 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:25 (37.0 km/h)
Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Total: 51:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 16 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 14 Aviv Levi
ISR
+20 s
+19 s
G1 / G2
 20:02
18:41
 51:15
Show details
Prediction details: Aviv Levi

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 10–31
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 0.6 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 2 (15 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:02 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.77 %, Sicherheit 99 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:41 (3:44 / km)
Error: +1:21 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 51:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 20:02 (4:00 / km)
Total: 51:15
25 / 20 Tünde Bukovszki
HUN
+48 s
+34 s
G3 / G3
correct 		18:06
17:39
 51:20
Show details
Prediction details: Tünde Bukovszki

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 11–27
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 10:36
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: 14.4 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 14.8 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:06 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 96 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:39 (3:32 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 51:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:36 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:25 (37.0 km/h)
Run: 18:06 (3:37 / km)
Total: 51:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 18.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 26 Matylda Wojakiewicz
POL
+23 s
+24 s
G1 / G3
 20:07
18:40
 51:20
Show details
Prediction details: Matylda Wojakiewicz

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 22–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -1.3 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:07 (4:01 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 96 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:40 (3:44 / km)
Error: +1:27 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 51:20
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:11 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 20:07 (4:01 / km)
Total: 51:20
27 / 25 Loanne Duvoisin
SUI
+92 s
+79 s
G4 / G5
 17:42
17:26
 51:32
Show details
Prediction details: Loanne Duvoisin

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 22–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +92 s
Time: 11:20
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +79 s
Fehler: 13.3 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 79 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 28.9 s
Gap behind: 31.9 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:42 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 76 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Error: +0:16 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 51:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:20 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:18 (37.0 km/h)
Run: 17:42 (3:32 / km)
Total: 51:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 62 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 35 Natasha Bowyer
NZL
+18 s
+32 s
G1 / G6
 20:26
21:47
 51:39
Show details
Prediction details: Natasha Bowyer

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 23–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: -14.5 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 55 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:26 (4:05 / km)
Historical basis: 4:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.73 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:47 (4:21 / km)
Error: −1:21 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 51:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 20:26 (4:05 / km)
Total: 51:39
29 / 22 Aleksandra Ferchmin
POL
+63 s
+65 s
G4 / G3
 18:21
18:01
 52:11
Show details
Prediction details: Aleksandra Ferchmin

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 21–31
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 10:51
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: -1.6 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 22 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 28.9 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:21 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 52:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:51 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:18 (37.0 km/h)
Run: 18:21 (3:40 / km)
Total: 52:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 33.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 15 Joanna Woźniak
POL
+124 s
+49 s
G5 / G3
 17:26
16:56
 52:12
Show details
Prediction details: Joanna Woźniak

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 28–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +124 s
Time: 11:52
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: 75.2 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 31.9 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:56 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 52:12
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:52 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:42 (36.7 km/h)
Run: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Total: 52:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 93.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 31 Livia Wespe
SUI
+39 s
+51 s
G2 / G4
 22:42
19:06
 54:41
Show details
Prediction details: Livia Wespe

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 32–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 10:27
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: -12.3 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:42 (4:32 / km)
Historical basis: 4:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 73 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:06 (3:49 / km)
Error: +3:36 / +0:43 / km
Overall prediction: 54:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:27 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:14 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 22:42 (4:32 / km)
Total: 54:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 8.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 30 Weronika Ptaszyńska
POL
+63 s
+43 s
G4 / G3
 20:55
19:48
 54:45
Show details
Prediction details: Weronika Ptaszyńska

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 31–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 10:51
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 20.2 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 14.8 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:55 (4:11 / km)
Historical basis: 4:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -1.72 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:48 (3:58 / km)
Error: +1:07 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 54:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:51 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:18 (37.0 km/h)
Run: 20:55 (4:11 / km)
Total: 54:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 32.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 19 Józefina Młynarska
POL
+47 s
 Bike DNF 18:01
Show details
Prediction details: Józefina Młynarska

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 34–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 10:35
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur -0.64 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 89 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:35 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 23 Leann Dietzel
GER
+34 s
 Bike DNF 17:48
Show details
Prediction details: Leann Dietzel

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 35–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 17:48 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.86 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:22 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 17:48 (3:34 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 33 Dana Prikrylova
CZE
+17 s
+27 s
G1 / G3
20:44
Show details
Prediction details: Dana Prikrylova

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -33

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: -10.5 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 73 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:44 (4:09 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (39.2 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable