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Elite Men

07.06.2024 Rzeszów POL
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Europe Triathlon Cup Rzeszów

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 07.06.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 58/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 75.9 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 96.3 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error7.4
Mean swim error10.6 s
Mean bike-speed error0.88 km/h
Correct bike groups9/54
No history0
Within the 80% range55.6 %
Details
1 / 12 Tomas Zikmund
CZE
+23 s
+7 s
G1 / G3
 14:46
16:07
 43:41
Show details
Prediction details: Tomas Zikmund

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 8:50
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 15.5 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 60 %
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:46 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur 0.95 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:07 (3:13 / km)
Error: −1:21 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 43:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:50 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:28 (42.1 km/h)
Run: 14:46 (2:57 / km)
Total: 43:41
2 / 1 Henry Graf
GER
+16 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:53
15:36
 43:48
Show details
Prediction details: Henry Graf

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 8:43
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 13.7 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:53 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:36 (3:07 / km)
Error: −0:43 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 43:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:43 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:28 (42.1 km/h)
Run: 14:53 (2:59 / km)
Total: 43:48
3 / 5 Paul Georgenthum
FRA
+25 s
+20 s
G1 / G2
 14:59
15:34
 43:54
Show details
Prediction details: Paul Georgenthum

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–12
Top-10 probability: 86 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 4.6 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 56 %
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:59 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 79 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:34 (3:07 / km)
Error: −0:35 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 43:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:52 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:28 (42.1 km/h)
Run: 14:59 (3:00 / km)
Total: 43:54
4 / 3 Barclay Izzard
GBR
+38 s
+31 s
G2 / G2
correct 		14:57
15:23
 44:01
Show details
Prediction details: Barclay Izzard

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–16
Top-10 probability: 60 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 7.4 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 32 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:57 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:23 (3:05 / km)
Error: −0:26 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 44:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 14:57 (2:59 / km)
Total: 44:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 11.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 17 Christopher Perham
GBR
+13 s
+8 s
G1 / G4
 15:12
16:46
 44:07
Show details
Prediction details: Christopher Perham

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 2–22
Top-10 probability: 68 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 8:40
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 5.0 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 1.50 %, Sicherheit 40 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 83 %
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:12 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:46 (3:21 / km)
Error: −1:34 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 44:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:40 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:28 (42.1 km/h)
Run: 15:12 (3:02 / km)
Total: 44:07
6 / 8 Sergiy Polikarpenko
ITA
+33 s
+41 s
G2 / G5
 15:05
15:21
 44:09
Show details
Prediction details: Sergiy Polikarpenko

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–13
Top-10 probability: 75 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: -8.2 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 5 (13 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:05 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Error: −0:16 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 44:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 15:05 (3:01 / km)
Total: 44:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 5.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 11 Jimmy Lund
GBR
+16 s
+3 s
G1 / G2
 15:20
16:00
 44:15
Show details
Prediction details: Jimmy Lund

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–13
Top-10 probability: 74 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 8:43
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 12.6 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:20 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:00 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:40 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 44:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:43 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:28 (42.1 km/h)
Run: 15:20 (3:04 / km)
Total: 44:15
8 / 6 Oscar Rogers
GBR
+27 s
+20 s
G1 / G2
 15:26
15:58
 44:21
Show details
Prediction details: Oscar Rogers

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 7–16
Top-10 probability: 41 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 6.6 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:26 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:58 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 44:21
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 8:54 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:28 (42.1 km/h)
Run: 15:26 (3:05 / km)
Total: 44:21
9 / 21 Joao Mansos
POR
+38 s
+40 s
G2 / G6
 15:21
16:00
 44:25
Show details
Prediction details: Joao Mansos

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 8–25
Top-10 probability: 28 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: -2.5 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 72 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 6 (18 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:00 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:39 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 44:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Total: 44:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 10.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 7 Briac Tence
FRA
+19 s
+32 s
G1 / G2
 15:33
15:54
 44:28
Show details
Prediction details: Briac Tence

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 7–16
Top-10 probability: 44 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 8:46
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: -12.9 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:33 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 82 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:54 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 44:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:46 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:28 (42.1 km/h)
Run: 15:33 (3:07 / km)
Total: 44:28
11 / 27 Pierre Moraz
SUI
+43 s
+41 s
G2 / G6
 15:34
16:15
 44:38
Show details
Prediction details: Pierre Moraz

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 7–31
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: 1.6 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 6 (18 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:34 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 81 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:15 (3:15 / km)
Error: −0:41 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 44:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 15:34 (3:07 / km)
Total: 44:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 15.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 10 Fabian Schönke
GER
+31 s
+35 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:35
16:08
 44:39
Show details
Prediction details: Fabian Schönke

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 5–28
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 8:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -4.3 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:35 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:08 (3:14 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 44:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 15:35 (3:07 / km)
Total: 44:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 3.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 28 Tomer Shapira
ISR
+31 s
+36 s
G2 / G5
 15:35
17:10
 44:39
Show details
Prediction details: Tomer Shapira

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 10–23
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 8:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -5.4 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 5 (13 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:35 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Error: −1:35 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 44:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 15:35 (3:07 / km)
Total: 44:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 3.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 2 Gergő Dobi
HUN
+17 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:46
15:45
 44:41
Show details
Prediction details: Gergő Dobi

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 5–29
Top-10 probability: 34 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 8:44
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 17.2 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:46 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:45 (3:09 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 44:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:44 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:28 (42.1 km/h)
Run: 15:46 (3:09 / km)
Total: 44:41
15 / 15 Raf De Dobbelaere
BEL
+35 s
+22 s
G2 / G3
 15:39
16:34
 44:43
Show details
Prediction details: Raf De Dobbelaere

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 7–32
Top-10 probability: 20 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 12.7 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:16 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:34 (3:19 / km)
Error: −0:55 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 44:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Total: 44:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 7.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 20 Chris Gregor
CAN
+22 s
+9 s
G1 / G3
 15:50
17:10
 44:45
Show details
Prediction details: Chris Gregor

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 11–25
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 12.6 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:50 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Error: −1:20 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 44:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:49 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:28 (42.1 km/h)
Run: 15:50 (3:10 / km)
Total: 44:45
17 / 14 Marco Arnaudo
ITA
+34 s
+14 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:44
16:34
 44:48
Show details
Prediction details: Marco Arnaudo

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 13–25
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 19.8 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:44 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.85 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:34 (3:19 / km)
Error: −0:50 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 44:48
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 15:44 (3:09 / km)
Total: 44:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 6.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 9 James Chantler-Mayne
GBR
+21 s
+28 s
G1 / G3
 15:54
15:51
 44:49
Show details
Prediction details: James Chantler-Mayne

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 13–28
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: -6.6 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:54 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.92 %, Sicherheit 31 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:51 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 44:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:48 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:28 (42.1 km/h)
Run: 15:54 (3:11 / km)
Total: 44:49
19 / 26 Aurél Sinkó-Uribe
COL
+23 s
+13 s
G1 / G2
 16:01
17:33
 44:56
Show details
Prediction details: Aurél Sinkó-Uribe

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 9–24
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 8:50
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 9.6 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 73 %
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:33 (3:31 / km)
Error: −1:32 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 44:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:50 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:28 (42.1 km/h)
Run: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Total: 44:56
20 / 4 Ian Pennekamp
NED
+37 s
+38 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:57
15:35
 45:01
Show details
Prediction details: Ian Pennekamp

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 17–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: -1.3 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:57 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.64 %, Sicherheit 97 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:35 (3:07 / km)
Error: +0:22 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 45:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 15:57 (3:11 / km)
Total: 45:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 9.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 16 Maayan Glantz
ISR
+37 s
+29 s
G2 / G4
 15:58
16:19
 45:02
Show details
Prediction details: Maayan Glantz

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 17–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 7.9 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:58 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:19 (3:16 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 45:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 15:58 (3:12 / km)
Total: 45:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 10 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 18 Karol Armuła
POL
+44 s
+35 s
G2 / G5
 15:58
16:26
 45:02
Show details
Prediction details: Karol Armuła

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 18–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 9.1 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 52 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 5 (13 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:58 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 50 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:26 (3:17 / km)
Error: −0:28 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 45:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 15:58 (3:12 / km)
Total: 45:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 17.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 23 Peter Rojtas
SVK
+41 s
+43 s
G2 / G5
 16:06
16:49
 45:10
Show details
Prediction details: Peter Rojtas

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 8–41
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: -1.6 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 5 (13 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:06 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:49 (3:22 / km)
Error: −0:43 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 45:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 16:06 (3:13 / km)
Total: 45:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 14.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 34 Filip Tlamka
CZE
+46 s
+42 s
G3 / G5
 15:26
17:56
 45:22
Show details
Prediction details: Filip Tlamka

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 10–32
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 3.5 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 5 (13 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:26 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:56 (3:35 / km)
Error: −2:30 / −0:30 / km
Overall prediction: 45:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:01 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 15:26 (3:05 / km)
Total: 45:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 18.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 33 James Kadziak
POL
+26 s
+9 s
G1 / G5
 16:33
17:40
 45:28
Show details
Prediction details: James Kadziak

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 21–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 8:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 17.2 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 5 (13 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.59 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:40 (3:32 / km)
Error: −1:07 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 45:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:53 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:28 (42.1 km/h)
Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Total: 45:28
26 / 24 Janne Büttel
GER
+33 s
+39 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:25
17:31
 45:29
Show details
Prediction details: Janne Büttel

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 9–38
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: -5.6 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 76 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:25 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.60 %, Sicherheit 58 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:31 (3:30 / km)
Error: −1:06 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 45:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 16:25 (3:17 / km)
Total: 45:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 6.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 49 David Martin
CZE
+38 s
+11 s
G2 / G7
 16:30
17:52
 45:34
Show details
Prediction details: David Martin

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 17–40
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 49
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 26.7 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 65 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:30 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 63 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Error: −1:22 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 45:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 16:30 (3:18 / km)
Total: 45:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 10.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 47 Luke McCarron
IRL
+47 s
+33 s
G3 / G6
 15:48
18:03
 45:44
Show details
Prediction details: Luke McCarron

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 11–35
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 47
Deviation: -19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 14.4 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 59 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 6 (18 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:03 (3:37 / km)
Error: −2:15 / −0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 45:44
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:01 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km)
Total: 45:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 20.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 22 Philipp Mack
GER
+44 s
+39 s
G2 / G5
 16:47
16:50
 45:51
Show details
Prediction details: Philipp Mack

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 13–45
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 4.6 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 5 (13 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:50 (3:22 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 45:51
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Total: 45:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 16.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 41 Jakub Marek
CZE
+51 s
+46 s
G3 / G6
 15:57
17:31
 45:53
Show details
Prediction details: Jakub Marek

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 9–44
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 41
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 9:18
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: 4.5 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 98 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 6 (18 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:57 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:31 (3:30 / km)
Error: −1:34 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 45:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:01 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 15:57 (3:11 / km)
Total: 45:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 23.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 31 Enes Kizilcik
TUR
+44 s
+21 s
G2 / G5
 16:50
17:27
 45:54
Show details
Prediction details: Enes Kizilcik

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 22–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 22.5 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 5 (13 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:50 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:27 (3:29 / km)
Error: −0:37 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 45:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 16:50 (3:22 / km)
Total: 45:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 16.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 50 Eskil Høien
NOR
+50 s
+60 s
G3 / G6
 16:14
19:02
 46:10
Show details
Prediction details: Eskil Høien

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 27–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 50
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 9:17
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: -9.9 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 6 (18 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:14 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:02 (3:48 / km)
Error: −2:48 / −0:34 / km
Overall prediction: 46:10
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:01 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 16:14 (3:15 / km)
Total: 46:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 23.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 40 Jan Chrzanowski
POL
+45 s
+35 s
G3 / G6
 16:21
17:32
 46:17
Show details
Prediction details: Jan Chrzanowski

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 21–45
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 40
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 9:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 10.1 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 68 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 6 (18 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:21 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 1.44 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:32 (3:30 / km)
Error: −1:11 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 46:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:01 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 16:21 (3:16 / km)
Total: 46:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 18.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 32 Dorian Horsten
NED
+49 s
+60 s
G3 / G6
 16:23
16:47
 46:19
Show details
Prediction details: Dorian Horsten

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 26–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: -11.1 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 6 (18 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:23 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Error: −0:24 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 46:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:01 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 16:23 (3:17 / km)
Total: 46:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 22 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 19 Benedek Peter
HUN
+50 s
+60 s
G3 / G6
 16:29
15:50
 46:25
Show details
Prediction details: Benedek Peter

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 26–49
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 9:17
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: -9.7 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 38 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 6 (18 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:50 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:39 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 46:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:01 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km)
Total: 46:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 23.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 13 Filip Michalek
CZE
+53 s
+27 s
G3 / G3
correct 		16:31
16:18
 46:27
Show details
Prediction details: Filip Michalek

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 24–47
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 25.9 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:31 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 71 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:18 (3:16 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 46:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:20 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:01 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 16:31 (3:18 / km)
Total: 46:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 26 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 36 Filip Glapa
POL
+52 s
+57 s
G3 / G6
 16:44
17:19
 46:40
Show details
Prediction details: Filip Glapa

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 28–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 36
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: -5.3 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 6 (18 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:44 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Error: −0:35 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 46:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:01 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 16:44 (3:21 / km)
Total: 46:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 24.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 29 Mateusz Gluszkowski
POL
+32 s
+1 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:41
18:03
 46:45
Show details
Prediction details: Mateusz Gluszkowski

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 34–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 31.0 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (11 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:03 (3:37 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 46:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:59 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Total: 46:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 53 Adrian Wilk
POL
+45 s
+44 s
G3 / G8
 17:10
20:13
 47:06
Show details
Prediction details: Adrian Wilk

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 31–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 53
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 9:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: 1.3 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:13 (4:03 / km)
Error: −3:03 / −0:37 / km
Overall prediction: 47:06
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:01 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Total: 47:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 18.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
40 / 45 Matej Marek
CZE
+37 s
+25 s
G2 / G6
 18:03
17:57
 47:07
Show details
Prediction details: Matej Marek

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 37–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 45
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 11.6 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 16 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 6 (18 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:03 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 47:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 18:03 (3:37 / km)
Total: 47:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 9.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 39 Wiktor Zasada
POL
+56 s
+62 s
G3 / G6
 17:22
17:38
 47:18
Show details
Prediction details: Wiktor Zasada

Placement

Prediction: 41
80% range: 36–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 39
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 9:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +62 s
Fehler: -6.5 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 50 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 4.8 s
Result: Group 6 (18 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:22 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 40 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:38 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:16 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 47:18
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:01 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 17:22 (3:28 / km)
Total: 47:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 28.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
42 / 37 Boris Andreev
BUL
+42 s
+19 s
G2 / G5
 18:21
18:04
 47:25
Show details
Prediction details: Boris Andreev

Placement

Prediction: 42
80% range: 41–53
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 37
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 22.9 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 51 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 5 (13 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:21 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:04 (3:37 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 47:25
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 18:21 (3:40 / km)
Total: 47:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 15 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 35 Benedek Heiszmann
HUN
+79 s
+44 s
G4 / G5
 15:52
17:58
 47:38
Show details
Prediction details: Benedek Heiszmann

Placement

Prediction: 43
80% range: 30–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +79 s
Time: 9:46
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: 35.0 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.76 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.1 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (13 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:52 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:58 (3:36 / km)
Error: −2:06 / −0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 47:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:27 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 15:52 (3:10 / km)
Total: 47:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 52.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 38 Vegard Horgen
NOR
+50 s
+39 s
G3 / G5
 17:59
18:10
 47:55
Show details
Prediction details: Vegard Horgen

Placement

Prediction: 44
80% range: 39–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 38
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 9:17
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 10.8 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 5 (13 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 88 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:10 (3:38 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 47:55
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:01 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Total: 47:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 22.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
45 / 42 David Korous
CZE
+60 s
+52 s
G4 / G6
 16:36
17:36
 48:22
Show details
Prediction details: David Korous

Placement

Prediction: 45
80% range: 34–45
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 42
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: 8.3 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.8 s
Gap behind: 3.3 s
Result: Group 6 (18 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:36 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.03 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:36 (3:31 / km)
Error: −1:00 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 48:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:27 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 16:36 (3:19 / km)
Total: 48:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 33.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
46 / 44 Marcel Kozaczkiewicz
POL
+55 s
+47 s
G3 / G6
 18:26
17:45
 48:22
Show details
Prediction details: Marcel Kozaczkiewicz

Placement

Prediction: 46
80% range: 45–53
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 44
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 9:22
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 7.8 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 37 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 6 (18 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:26 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -1.06 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:45 (3:33 / km)
Error: +0:41 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 48:22
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:01 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 18:26 (3:41 / km)
Total: 48:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 27.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
47 / 46 Valentino Agnelli
ARG
+48 s
+37 s
G3 / G5
 18:34
18:50
 48:30
Show details
Prediction details: Valentino Agnelli

Placement

Prediction: 47
80% range: 33–53
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 46
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 10.9 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 5 (13 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:34 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:50 (3:46 / km)
Error: −0:16 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 48:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:01 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 18:34 (3:43 / km)
Total: 48:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 21 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
48 / 43 Tymon Horsten
POL
+64 s
+66 s
G4 / G6
 16:53
17:41
 48:39
Show details
Prediction details: Tymon Horsten

Placement

Prediction: 48
80% range: 39–49
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 43
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +66 s
Fehler: -2.4 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.3 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 6 (18 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:53 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:48 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 48:39
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:27 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 16:53 (3:23 / km)
Total: 48:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 36.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
49 / 51 Jakub Maliszewski
POL
+53 s
+56 s
G3 / G6
 18:48
19:09
 48:44
Show details
Prediction details: Jakub Maliszewski

Placement

Prediction: 49
80% range: 49–53
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 51
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: -2.7 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 6 (18 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.68 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:09 (3:50 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 48:44
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:20 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:01 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Total: 48:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 26.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
50 / 30 Wojciech Kopyciński
POL
+68 s
+60 s
G4 / G6
 17:14
16:44
 49:00
Show details
Prediction details: Wojciech Kopyciński

Placement

Prediction: 50
80% range: 44–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: 20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +68 s
Time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: 7.6 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 6 (18 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:14 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:44 (3:21 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 49:00
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:27 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 17:14 (3:27 / km)
Total: 49:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 40.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
51 / 48 Karol Janicki
POL
+69 s
+60 s
G4 / G6
 17:18
18:18
 49:04
Show details
Prediction details: Karol Janicki

Placement

Prediction: 51
80% range: 45–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 48
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +69 s
Time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: 8.6 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 3.3 s
Result: Group 6 (18 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:18 (3:40 / km)
Error: −1:00 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 49:04
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:27 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Total: 49:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 41.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
52 / 52 Francis Daniels Veģeris
LAT
+68 s
+61 s
G4 / G6
 18:00
19:24
 49:46
Show details
Prediction details: Francis Daniels Veģeris

Placement

Prediction: 52
80% range: 40–54
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 52
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +68 s
Time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: 7.0 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 6 (18 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:00 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:24 (3:53 / km)
Error: −1:24 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 49:46
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:27 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 18:00 (3:36 / km)
Total: 49:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 41.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
53 / 54 Péter Lukács
HUN
+72 s
+56 s
G4 / G9
 18:01
17:24
 49:47
Show details
Prediction details: Péter Lukács

Placement

Prediction: 53
80% range: 43–54
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 54
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +72 s
Time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: 15.9 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.73 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.3 s
Gap behind: 7.1 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -1.32 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:24 (3:29 / km)
Error: +0:37 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 49:47
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:39 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:27 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Total: 49:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 45 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 25 Lukas Meckel
GER
+23 s
+38 s
G1 / G5
16:58
Show details
Prediction details: Lukas Meckel

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -25

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 8:50
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: -15.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 5 (13 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:58 (3:24 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 8:50 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:28 (42.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable