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Prediction comparison

60-64 Female AG Sprint

15.06.2024 Coimbra POR
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Europe Triathlon Duathlon Championships Coimbra

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 15.06.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 6/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 12.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 18.8 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error8.1
Mean bike-speed error30.35 km/h
Correct bike groups0/0
No history1
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
0 / 1 Caroline Murphy
IRL
+449 s
G0 / G1
 22:58
Show details
Prediction details: Caroline Murphy

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +449 s
Time:
Pace: 2:13 / 100 m
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 30.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -30.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:58 (4:36 / km)
Historical basis: 4:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:18 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 22:58 (4:36 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Nicoletta Tonizzo
ITA
+280 s
G0 / G2
 25:09
Show details
Prediction details: Nicoletta Tonizzo

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +280 s
Time:
Pace: 1:50 / 100 m

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 31.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -31.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:09 (5:02 / km)
Historical basis: 5:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:55 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 25:09 (5:02 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Lynda Coggins
GBR
+15 s
G0 / G3
 24:03
Show details
Prediction details: Lynda Coggins

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time:
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 32.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -32.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 24:03 (4:49 / km)
Historical basis: 4:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:09 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 24:03 (4:49 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Wendy Urban
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G4
Show details
Prediction details: Wendy Urban

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 30.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -30.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:54 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Sarah Gill
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G4
Show details
Prediction details: Sarah Gill

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 30.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -30.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:56 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Ann Cook
GBR
+242 s
G0 / G5
 24:24
Show details
Prediction details: Ann Cook

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +242 s
Time:
Pace: 2:03 / 100 m

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 30.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -29.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 24:24 (4:53 / km)
Historical basis: 4:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:25 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 24:24 (4:53 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Sabine Greipel
AUT
+0 s
G0 / G5
 28:35
Show details
Prediction details: Sabine Greipel

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 30.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -30.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 28:35 (5:43 / km)
Historical basis: 5:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:34 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 28:35 (5:43 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Ruth Mckee
IRL
+0 s
G0 / G5
Show details
Prediction details: Ruth Mckee

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 30.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -30.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:52 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Joanne Wallace
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G5
Show details
Prediction details: Joanne Wallace

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 31.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -31.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:49 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Elizabeth Halliday
GBR
+1,226 s
G0 / G6
Show details
Prediction details: Elizabeth Halliday

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +1,226 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 30.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -30.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:54 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Sandra Barden
GBR
+261 s
G0 / G7
Show details
Prediction details: Sandra Barden

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +261 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 30.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -30.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:36 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Janine Pattison
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G6
Show details
Prediction details: Janine Pattison

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 31.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -31.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:14 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Rosario Palma Martinez
ESP
+0 s
G0 / G8
Show details
Prediction details: Rosario Palma Martinez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 28.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -28.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:04 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Clare Grindrod
GBR
+328 s
G0 / G10
Show details
Prediction details: Clare Grindrod

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +328 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (2 people)
Speed: 27.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -27.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:39 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15 Jennifer Edwards
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G9
Show details
Prediction details: Jennifer Edwards

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 29.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:00 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 16 Louise Southgate
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G10
Show details
Prediction details: Louise Southgate

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (2 people)
Speed: 28.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -28.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:11 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.