Zum Inhalt springen
Performance Workspace
Predicition
Live data
Prediction comparison

Final B Elite Men

10.08.2024 Balikesir TUR
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Europe Triathlon Sprint and Relay Championships Balikesir

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 10.08.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 50/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 60.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error10.5
Mean swim error3.5 s
Mean bike-speed error1.56 km/h
Correct bike groups18/30
No history0
Within the 80% range46.7 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 6 Valentin Wernz
GER
+12 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		4:27
4:37
 13:49
Show details
Prediction details: Valentin Wernz

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 3:20
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 3.6 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 69 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (24 people)
Speed: 46.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:27 (2:28 / km)
Historical basis: 2:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.90 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:37 (2:34 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 13:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:20 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:05 (45.6 km/h)
Run: 4:27 (2:28 / km)
Total: 13:49
2 / 4 Eduardo Blanco Mollá
ESP
+7 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		4:32
4:33
 13:54
Show details
Prediction details: Eduardo Blanco Mollá

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 3:15
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 5.1 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 67 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 83 %
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.3 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 1 (24 people)
Speed: 45.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:32 (2:31 / km)
Historical basis: 2:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:33 (2:32 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 13:54
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:15 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:05 (45.6 km/h)
Run: 4:32 (2:31 / km)
Total: 13:54
3 / 29 Andrés Prieto Villar
ESP
+9 s
+6 s
G1 / G3
 4:37
4:36
 13:59
Show details
Prediction details: Andrés Prieto Villar

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -26

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 3:17
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 2.9 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 63 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:37 (2:34 / km)
Historical basis: 2:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 64 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:36 (2:33 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 13:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:17 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:05 (45.6 km/h)
Run: 4:37 (2:34 / km)
Total: 13:59
4 / 14 Pietro Giovannini
ITA
+4 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		4:42
4:49
 14:04
Show details
Prediction details: Pietro Giovannini

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–8
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +4 s
Time: 3:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 3.8 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 83 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 3.3 s
Result: Group 1 (24 people)
Speed: 45.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:42 (2:37 / km)
Historical basis: 2:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 93 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:49 (2:41 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 14:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:12 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:05 (45.6 km/h)
Run: 4:42 (2:37 / km)
Total: 14:04
5 / 13 João Canadas
POR
+11 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		4:47
4:43
 14:09
Show details
Prediction details: João Canadas

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–12
Top-10 probability: 81 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 3:19
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 2.7 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 75 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (24 people)
Speed: 46.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:47 (2:39 / km)
Historical basis: 2:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 67 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:43 (2:37 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 14:09
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:19 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:05 (45.6 km/h)
Run: 4:47 (2:39 / km)
Total: 14:09
6 / 16 Lucas Cambresy
LUX
+14 s
+12 s
G1 / G1
correct 		4:49
4:48
 14:11
Show details
Prediction details: Lucas Cambresy

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–19
Top-10 probability: 65 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 3:22
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 2.4 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 91 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (24 people)
Speed: 46.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:49 (2:40 / km)
Historical basis: 2:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 93 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:48 (2:40 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 14:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:22 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:05 (45.6 km/h)
Run: 4:49 (2:40 / km)
Total: 14:11
7 / 18 Thomas Hansmaennel
FRA
+16 s
+20 s
G1 / G1
correct 		4:49
4:45
 14:11
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Hansmaennel

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 6–26
Top-10 probability: 48 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 3:24
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: -4.1 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 80 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (24 people)
Speed: 46.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:49 (2:40 / km)
Historical basis: 2:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 86 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:45 (2:38 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 14:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:24 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:05 (45.6 km/h)
Run: 4:49 (2:40 / km)
Total: 14:11
8 / 25 Peter Rojtas
SVK
+16 s
+15 s
G1 / G1
correct 		4:51
5:29
 14:13
Show details
Prediction details: Peter Rojtas

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 7–22
Top-10 probability: 43 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 3:24
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 0.6 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 89 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (24 people)
Speed: 46.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:51 (2:42 / km)
Historical basis: 2:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 75 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:29 (3:03 / km)
Error: −0:38 / −0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 14:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:24 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:05 (45.6 km/h)
Run: 4:51 (2:42 / km)
Total: 14:13
9 / 15 Luca Luberti
SUI
+17 s
+14 s
G1 / G1
correct 		4:54
4:40
 14:16
Show details
Prediction details: Luca Luberti

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 8–26
Top-10 probability: 19 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 3:25
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 3.3 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 60 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (24 people)
Speed: 46.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:54 (2:44 / km)
Historical basis: 2:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:40 (2:36 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 14:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:25 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:05 (45.6 km/h)
Run: 4:54 (2:44 / km)
Total: 14:16
10 / 24 Vitalii Vorontsov
UKR
+19 s
+19 s
G2 / G2
correct 		4:26
4:40
 14:17
Show details
Prediction details: Vitalii Vorontsov

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 1–19
Top-10 probability: 70 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 3:27
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 0.2 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 96 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.91 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:26 (2:28 / km)
Historical basis: 2:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.73 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:40 (2:36 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 14:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:27 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:26 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 4:26 (2:28 / km)
Total: 14:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:26
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 1.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 10 Denis Kolobrodov
RUS
+11 s
+5 s
G1 / G1
correct 		4:55
4:43
 14:17
Show details
Prediction details: Denis Kolobrodov

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 8–20
Top-10 probability: 31 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 3:19
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 6.0 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 67 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (24 people)
Speed: 45.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:55 (2:44 / km)
Historical basis: 2:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:43 (2:37 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 14:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:19 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:05 (45.6 km/h)
Run: 4:55 (2:44 / km)
Total: 14:17
12 / 9 Russell White
IRL
+16 s
+9 s
G1 / G1
correct 		4:55
4:48
 14:17
Show details
Prediction details: Russell White

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 9–25
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 3:24
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 6.8 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 75 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (24 people)
Speed: 46.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:55 (2:44 / km)
Historical basis: 2:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 72 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:48 (2:40 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 14:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:24 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:05 (45.6 km/h)
Run: 4:55 (2:44 / km)
Total: 14:17
13 / 26 Gültigin Er
TUR
+13 s
+11 s
G1 / G2
 4:58
4:53
 14:20
Show details
Prediction details: Gültigin Er

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 11–25
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 3:21
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 2.1 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 92 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:58 (2:45 / km)
Historical basis: 2:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 79 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:53 (2:43 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 14:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:21 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:05 (45.6 km/h)
Run: 4:58 (2:45 / km)
Total: 14:20
14 / 19 Gabriel Santos
POR
+11 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		4:59
4:51
 14:21
Show details
Prediction details: Gabriel Santos

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 10–23
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 3:19
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 8.8 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 63 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 83 %
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (24 people)
Speed: 45.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:59 (2:46 / km)
Historical basis: 2:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 63 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:51 (2:42 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 14:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:19 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:05 (45.6 km/h)
Run: 4:59 (2:46 / km)
Total: 14:21
15 / 2 Jan Bader
AUT
+13 s
+20 s
G1 / G1
correct 		4:59
4:31
 14:21
Show details
Prediction details: Jan Bader

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 8–26
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 3:21
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: -6.7 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 70 %
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (24 people)
Speed: 46.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:59 (2:46 / km)
Historical basis: 2:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -1.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:31 (2:31 / km)
Error: +0:28 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 14:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:21 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:05 (45.6 km/h)
Run: 4:59 (2:46 / km)
Total: 14:21
16 / 21 Niels Van Lanen
NED
+12 s
+13 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:00
4:53
 14:22
Show details
Prediction details: Niels Van Lanen

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 10–25
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 3:20
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: -1.5 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 74 %
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (24 people)
Speed: 45.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:00 (2:47 / km)
Historical basis: 2:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:41 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:53 (2:43 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 14:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:20 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:05 (45.6 km/h)
Run: 5:00 (2:47 / km)
Total: 14:22
17 / 22 Till Kramp
GER
+14 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:00
5:05
 14:22
Show details
Prediction details: Till Kramp

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 11–26
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 3:22
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 5.8 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 79 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (24 people)
Speed: 46.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:00 (2:47 / km)
Historical basis: 2:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -1.03 %, Sicherheit 92 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:05 (2:49 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 14:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:22 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:05 (45.6 km/h)
Run: 5:00 (2:47 / km)
Total: 14:22
18 / 28 Mikhail Bastrakov
AIN
+16 s
+15 s
G1 / G2
 5:02
5:11
 14:24
Show details
Prediction details: Mikhail Bastrakov

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 13–27
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 3:24
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 1.2 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 67 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:02 (2:48 / km)
Historical basis: 2:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:11 (2:53 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 14:24
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:24 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:05 (45.6 km/h)
Run: 5:02 (2:48 / km)
Total: 14:24
19 / 11 Jose Ignacio Galvez Ponce
ESP
+20 s
+18 s
G2 / G1
 4:34
4:40
 14:25
Show details
Prediction details: Jose Ignacio Galvez Ponce

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 3–24
Top-10 probability: 38 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 3:28
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 1.8 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 86 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 1 (24 people)
Speed: 46.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:34 (2:32 / km)
Historical basis: 2:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:34 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.93 %, Sicherheit 80 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:40 (2:36 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 14:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:28 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:26 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 4:34 (2:32 / km)
Total: 14:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:26
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 2.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 27 Artjoms Gajevskis
LAT
+16 s
+14 s
G1 / G2
 5:03
4:59
 14:25
Show details
Prediction details: Artjoms Gajevskis

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 14–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 3:24
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 1.6 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 82 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 55 %
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:03 (2:48 / km)
Historical basis: 2:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 78 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:59 (2:46 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 14:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:24 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:05 (45.6 km/h)
Run: 5:03 (2:48 / km)
Total: 14:25
21 / 1 Eric Diener
GER
+19 s
+18 s
G2 / G1
 4:36
4:26
 14:27
Show details
Prediction details: Eric Diener

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 4–24
Top-10 probability: 55 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 3:27
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 0.6 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 86 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (24 people)
Speed: 46.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:36 (2:33 / km)
Historical basis: 2:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 97 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:26 (2:28 / km)
Error: +0:10 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 14:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:27 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:26 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 4:36 (2:33 / km)
Total: 14:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:26
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 0.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 5 Veikka Saren
FIN
+24 s
+21 s
G2 / G1
 4:37
4:29
 14:28
Show details
Prediction details: Veikka Saren

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 4–26
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 3:32
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 2.7 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (24 people)
Speed: 46.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:37 (2:34 / km)
Historical basis: 2:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:29 (2:29 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 14:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:32 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:26 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 4:37 (2:34 / km)
Total: 14:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:26
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 7 Adrien Deharre
BEL
+25 s
+10 s
G2 / G1
 4:37
4:32
 14:28
Show details
Prediction details: Adrien Deharre

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 11–25
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 3:33
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 15.1 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 85 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (24 people)
Speed: 45.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:37 (2:34 / km)
Historical basis: 2:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 94 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:32 (2:31 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 14:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:33 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:26 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 4:37 (2:34 / km)
Total: 14:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:26
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 7.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 23 Pavel Sorokin
AIN
+9 s
+4 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:06
4:58
 14:28
Show details
Prediction details: Pavel Sorokin

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 16–24
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 3:17
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 4.8 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 60 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (24 people)
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:06 (2:50 / km)
Historical basis: 2:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:58 (2:46 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 14:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:17 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:05 (45.6 km/h)
Run: 5:06 (2:50 / km)
Total: 14:28
25 / 8 Victor Goené
NED
+18 s
+17 s
G2 / G1
 4:53
4:44
 14:44
Show details
Prediction details: Victor Goené

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 9–26
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 3:26
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 1.2 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (24 people)
Speed: 46.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:53 (2:43 / km)
Historical basis: 2:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:44 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:44 (2:38 / km)
Error: +0:09 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 14:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:26 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:26 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 4:53 (2:43 / km)
Total: 14:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:26
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 0.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 12 Johannes Sikk
EST
+24 s
+21 s
G2 / G1
 4:55
4:47
 14:46
Show details
Prediction details: Johannes Sikk

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 17–28
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 3:32
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 3.0 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 88 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (24 people)
Speed: 47.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:55 (2:44 / km)
Historical basis: 2:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 86 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:47 (2:39 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 14:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:32 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:26 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 4:55 (2:44 / km)
Total: 14:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:26
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 6.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 30 Jakub Marek
CZE
+23 s
+21 s
G2 / G2
correct 		4:56
5:26
 14:47
Show details
Prediction details: Jakub Marek

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 14–29
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 3:31
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 2.1 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 67 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:56 (2:44 / km)
Historical basis: 2:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:26 (3:01 / km)
Error: −0:30 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 14:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:31 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:26 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 4:56 (2:44 / km)
Total: 14:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:26
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 5.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 20 Filip Michalek
CZE
+21 s
+22 s
G2 / G1
 5:00
4:48
 14:51
Show details
Prediction details: Filip Michalek

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 12–30
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 3:29
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: -0.6 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 88 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (24 people)
Speed: 46.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:00 (2:46 / km)
Historical basis: 2:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 88 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:48 (2:40 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 14:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:29 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:26 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 5:00 (2:46 / km)
Total: 14:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:25
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 3.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 17 Ul Denša
SLO
+14 s
+12 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:39
4:44
 15:01
Show details
Prediction details: Ul Denša

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 28–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 3:22
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 2.4 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 88 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 66 %
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (24 people)
Speed: 46.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:39 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 83 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:44 (2:38 / km)
Error: +0:55 / +0:30 / km
Overall prediction: 15:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:22 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:05 (45.6 km/h)
Run: 5:39 (3:08 / km)
Total: 15:01
30 / 3 Jack Stanton-Stock
GBR
+22 s
+21 s
G2 / G1
 5:13
4:34
 15:04
Show details
Prediction details: Jack Stanton-Stock

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 21–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 27

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 3:30
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 1.2 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 67 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (24 people)
Speed: 46.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:13 (2:54 / km)
Historical basis: 2:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:34 (2:32 / km)
Error: +0:39 / +0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 15:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:30 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:26 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 5:13 (2:54 / km)
Total: 15:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:26
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 4.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.