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Semifinal 3 Elite Men

09.08.2024 Balikesir TUR
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Europe Triathlon Sprint and Relay Championships Balikesir

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 09.08.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 61/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 82.8 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 93.1 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.5
Mean swim error7.4 s
Mean bike-speed error1.53 km/h
Correct bike groups14/29
No history0
Within the 80% range58.6 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 4 Gergő Dobi
HUN
+5 s
+5 s
G1 / G1
correct 		4:59
4:46
 14:42
Show details
Prediction details: Gergő Dobi

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +5 s
Time: 3:08
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 0.4 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 46.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:59 (2:46 / km)
Historical basis: 2:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.62 %, Sicherheit 58 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:46 (2:39 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 14:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:08 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 4:59 (2:46 / km)
Total: 14:42
2 / 2 Sebastian Wernersen
NOR
+12 s
+10 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:00
4:38
 14:43
Show details
Prediction details: Sebastian Wernersen

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–9
Top-10 probability: 93 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 3:15
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 2.4 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 74 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 46.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:00 (2:46 / km)
Historical basis: 2:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.81 %, Sicherheit 70 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:38 (2:34 / km)
Error: +0:22 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 14:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:15 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 5:00 (2:46 / km)
Total: 14:43
3 / 16 Niels Van Lanen
NED
+11 s
+27 s
G1 / G2
 5:04
4:49
 14:47
Show details
Prediction details: Niels Van Lanen

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 3:14
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: -15.7 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:04 (2:49 / km)
Historical basis: 2:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 52 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:49 (2:41 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 14:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:14 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 5:04 (2:49 / km)
Total: 14:47
4 / 11 Vitalii Vorontsov
UKR
+8 s
+25 s
G1 / G2
 5:08
4:24
 14:51
Show details
Prediction details: Vitalii Vorontsov

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 1–10
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 3:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: -17.4 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 1.47 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:08 (2:51 / km)
Historical basis: 2:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:24 (2:27 / km)
Error: +0:44 / +0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 14:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:11 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 5:08 (2:51 / km)
Total: 14:51
5 / 8 Valentin Morlec
FRA
+10 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:09
4:57
 14:52
Show details
Prediction details: Valentin Morlec

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 2–12
Top-10 probability: 83 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 3:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 10.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 66 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 45.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:09 (2:52 / km)
Historical basis: 2:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:45 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:57 (2:45 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 14:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 5:09 (2:52 / km)
Total: 14:52
6 / 7 Hamish Reilly
GBR
+9 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:11
4:57
 14:54
Show details
Prediction details: Hamish Reilly

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 3–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 3:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 5.8 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 46.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:11 (2:53 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:47 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:57 (2:45 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 14:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:12 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 5:11 (2:53 / km)
Total: 14:54
7 / 1 Euan De Nigro
ITA
+13 s
+12 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:12
4:34
 14:55
Show details
Prediction details: Euan De Nigro

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–12
Top-10 probability: 76 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 3:16
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 1.2 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 65 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 56 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 46.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:12 (2:54 / km)
Historical basis: 2:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 92 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:34 (2:32 / km)
Error: +0:38 / +0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 14:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:16 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 5:12 (2:54 / km)
Total: 14:55
8 / 21 Ian Pennekamp
NED
+21 s
+11 s
G2 / G4
 5:02
4:50
 14:56
Show details
Prediction details: Ian Pennekamp

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 2–17
Top-10 probability: 65 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 3:24
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 9.6 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:02 (2:48 / km)
Historical basis: 2:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:50 (2:41 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 14:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:24 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:27 (43.8 km/h)
Run: 5:02 (2:48 / km)
Total: 14:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:23
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 1.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 6 James Edgar
IRL
+12 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:17
4:49
 15:00
Show details
Prediction details: James Edgar

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 3–18
Top-10 probability: 61 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 3:15
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 9.5 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 56 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 45.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:17 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:49 (2:41 / km)
Error: +0:28 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 15:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:15 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 5:17 (2:56 / km)
Total: 15:00
10 / 12 Adrien Deharre
BEL
+26 s
+29 s
G2 / G2
correct 		5:09
4:36
 15:03
Show details
Prediction details: Adrien Deharre

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 6–17
Top-10 probability: 38 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 3:29
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: -2.9 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 4.5 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:09 (2:52 / km)
Historical basis: 2:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:47 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.82 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:36 (2:33 / km)
Error: +0:33 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 15:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:29 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:27 (43.8 km/h)
Run: 5:09 (2:52 / km)
Total: 15:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:22
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 6.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 9 Arnaud Mengal
BEL
+23 s
+27 s
G2 / G2
correct 		5:12
4:27
 15:06
Show details
Prediction details: Arnaud Mengal

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 8–16
Top-10 probability: 31 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 3:26
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: -3.9 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 14 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 44.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:12 (2:53 / km)
Historical basis: 2:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:27 (2:28 / km)
Error: +0:45 / +0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 15:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:26 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:27 (43.8 km/h)
Run: 5:12 (2:53 / km)
Total: 15:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:22
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 3.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 19 Filip Michalek
CZE
+23 s
+13 s
G2 / G2
correct 		5:13
4:59
 15:07
Show details
Prediction details: Filip Michalek

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 5–23
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 3:26
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 10.1 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:13 (2:54 / km)
Historical basis: 2:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:59 (2:46 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 15:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:26 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:27 (43.8 km/h)
Run: 5:13 (2:54 / km)
Total: 15:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:22
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 3.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 5 Gyula Kovács
HUN
+8 s
+13 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:24
4:48
 15:07
Show details
Prediction details: Gyula Kovács

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 8–14
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 3:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: -5.5 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 46.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:24 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:48 (2:40 / km)
Error: +0:36 / +0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 15:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:11 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 5:24 (3:00 / km)
Total: 15:07
14 / 10 Eric Diener
GER
+20 s
+11 s
G2 / G2
correct 		5:16
4:35
 15:10
Show details
Prediction details: Eric Diener

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 7–19
Top-10 probability: 44 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 3:23
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 9.4 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 38 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:16 (2:55 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:35 (2:33 / km)
Error: +0:41 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 15:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:23 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:27 (43.8 km/h)
Run: 5:16 (2:55 / km)
Total: 15:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:22
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 1.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 17 Johannes Sikk
EST
+22 s
+27 s
G2 / G2
correct 		5:17
4:54
 15:11
Show details
Prediction details: Johannes Sikk

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 8–18
Top-10 probability: 34 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 3:25
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: -4.6 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 22 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 45.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:17 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:54 (2:43 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 15:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:25 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:27 (43.8 km/h)
Run: 5:17 (2:56 / km)
Total: 15:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:22
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 3.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 3 Thomas Windischbauer
AUT
+19 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:32
4:38
 15:15
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Windischbauer

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 12–21
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 3:22
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 11.2 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -1.20 %, Sicherheit 53 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 46.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:32 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:38 (2:34 / km)
Error: +0:54 / +0:30 / km
Overall prediction: 15:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:22 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 5:32 (3:04 / km)
Total: 15:15
17 / 20 Gültigin Er
TUR
+9 s
+18 s
G1 / G3
 5:43
4:57
 15:26
Show details
Prediction details: Gültigin Er

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 12–18
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 3:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: -8.7 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:43 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:57 (2:45 / km)
Error: +0:46 / +0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 15:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:12 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 5:43 (3:10 / km)
Total: 15:26
18 / 13 Jose Ignacio Galvez Ponce
ESP
+24 s
+29 s
G2 / G3
 5:33
4:37
 15:27
Show details
Prediction details: Jose Ignacio Galvez Ponce

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 11–27
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 3:27
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: -4.6 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.98 %, Sicherheit 33 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:33 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 31 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:37 (2:34 / km)
Error: +0:56 / +0:31 / km
Overall prediction: 15:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:27 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:27 (43.8 km/h)
Run: 5:33 (3:05 / km)
Total: 15:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:22
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 5.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 18 Ul Denša
SLO
+16 s
+16 s
G1 / G3
 5:49
4:46
 15:32
Show details
Prediction details: Ul Denša

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 16–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 3:19
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 38 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:49 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:46 (2:39 / km)
Error: +1:03 / +0:35 / km
Overall prediction: 15:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:19 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 5:49 (3:14 / km)
Total: 15:32
20 / 22 Karol Armuła
POL
+25 s
+17 s
G2 / G2
correct 		5:49
5:16
 15:43
Show details
Prediction details: Karol Armuła

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 16–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 3:28
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 7.8 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 20 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:49 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 35 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:16 (2:56 / km)
Error: +0:33 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 15:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:28 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:27 (43.8 km/h)
Run: 5:49 (3:14 / km)
Total: 15:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:23
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 5.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 28 Max Walther
FIN
+25 s
+23 s
G2 / G5
 5:49
5:28
 15:43
Show details
Prediction details: Max Walther

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 18–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 3:28
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 2.3 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:49 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:28 (3:02 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 15:43
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:28 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:27 (43.8 km/h)
Run: 5:49 (3:14 / km)
Total: 15:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:22
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 14 Lucas Cambresy
LUX
+15 s
+16 s
G1 / G2
 6:07
4:47
 15:50
Show details
Prediction details: Lucas Cambresy

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 18–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 3:18
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: -0.9 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 32 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:07 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -1.28 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:47 (2:39 / km)
Error: +1:20 / +0:44 / km
Overall prediction: 15:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:18 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 6:07 (3:24 / km)
Total: 15:50
23 / 23 Filip Lizak
SVK
+21 s
+7 s
G2 / G3
 6:09
5:20
 16:03
Show details
Prediction details: Filip Lizak

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 18–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 3:24
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 14.2 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:09 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.60 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:20 (2:58 / km)
Error: +0:49 / +0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 16:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:24 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:27 (43.8 km/h)
Run: 6:09 (3:25 / km)
Total: 16:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:22
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 1.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 25 Tin Rebic
CRO
+15 s
+14 s
G1 / G3
 6:28
5:32
 16:11
Show details
Prediction details: Tin Rebic

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 21–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 3:18
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 1.1 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:28 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:32 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:56 / +0:31 / km
Overall prediction: 16:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:18 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 6:28 (3:36 / km)
Total: 16:11
25 / 24 Armin Angerjärv
EST
+35 s
+28 s
G3 / G2
 5:28
5:29
 16:12
Show details
Prediction details: Armin Angerjärv

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 12–27
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 3:38
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 7.3 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.78 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.7 s
Gap behind: 14.8 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:28 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.62 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:29 (3:03 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 16:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:38 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:09 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 5:28 (3:02 / km)
Total: 16:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:22
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 16 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 15 João Canadas
POR
+17 s
+13 s
G1 / G2
 6:43
4:46
 16:26
Show details
Prediction details: João Canadas

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 24–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 3:20
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 4.3 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:43 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:46 (2:39 / km)
Error: +1:57 / +1:05 / km
Overall prediction: 16:26
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 3:20 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 6:43 (3:44 / km)
Total: 16:26
27 / 27 Burak Cağdaş
TUR
+15 s
+26 s
G1 / G5
 7:06
5:13
 16:49
Show details
Prediction details: Burak Cağdaş

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 26–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 3:18
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: -11.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:06 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 4:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.90 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:13 (2:54 / km)
Error: +1:53 / +1:03 / km
Overall prediction: 16:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:18 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:24 (44.1 km/h)
Run: 7:06 (3:57 / km)
Total: 16:49
28 / 29 Francis Daniels Veģeris
LAT
+31 s
+28 s
G3 / G5
 6:10
5:58
 16:54
Show details
Prediction details: Francis Daniels Veģeris

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 21–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 3:34
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 2.6 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.5 s
Gap behind: 4.7 s
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:10 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:58 (3:19 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 16:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:34 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:09 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 6:10 (3:26 / km)
Total: 16:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:23
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 11.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 26 Belmin Godinjak
BIH
+50 s
+21 s
G4 / G2
 7:16
5:41
 18:39
Show details
Prediction details: Belmin Godinjak

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 29–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 3:53
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 29.1 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 14.8 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (12 people)
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:16 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:41 (3:09 / km)
Error: +1:35 / +0:53 / km
Overall prediction: 18:39
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:53 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:33 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 7:16 (4:02 / km)
Total: 18:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:22
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 30.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.