Prediction comparison

U23 Men

17.11.2024 Daiba JPN

Race information and calculation basis

2024 JPN Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 17.11.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 28/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 15.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 76.9 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.2

Mean swim error16.6 s

Mean bike-speed error0.47 km/h

Correct bike groups3/10

No history3

Within the 80% range38.5 %

						Details
1 / 3	Takuto Oshima JPN	+6 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	31:28 34:09	1:28:38	Show details Prediction details: Takuto Oshima Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +6 s Time: 18:45 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 6.4 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 71 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 63 % Speed: 42.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.4 s Gap behind: 29.1 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 42.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.19 km/h Running and total Run: 31:28 (3:09 / km) Historical basis: 3:09 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 64 % Ergebnis Lauf: 34:09 (3:25 / km) Error: −2:41 / −0:16 / km Overall prediction: 1:28:38 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:45 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 56:23 (42.6 km/h) Run: 31:28 (3:09 / km) Total: 1:28:38
2 / 4	Amu Omuro JPN	+4 s +2 s	G1 / G2	34:16 35:00	1:31:26	Show details Prediction details: Amu Omuro Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +4 s Time: 18:43 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +2 s Fehler: 2.0 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 79 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 42.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 2.4 s Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 42.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.58 km/h Running and total Run: 34:16 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 56 % Ergebnis Lauf: 35:00 (3:30 / km) Error: −0:44 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: 1:31:26 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:43 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 56:23 (42.6 km/h) Run: 34:16 (3:26 / km) Total: 1:31:26
3 / 9	Akira Fukushima JPN	+36 s +3 s	G1 / G1 correct	34:49 38:49	1:31:59	Show details Prediction details: Akira Fukushima Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 3–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 9 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: 19:15 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +3 s Fehler: 32.5 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 74 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 49 % Speed: 42.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 29.1 s Gap behind: 2.3 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 42.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.15 km/h Running and total Run: 34:49 (3:29 / km) Historical basis: 3:29 / km Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 61 % Ergebnis Lauf: 38:49 (3:53 / km) Error: −4:00 / −0:24 / km Overall prediction: 1:31:59 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:15 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 56:23 (42.6 km/h) Run: 34:49 (3:29 / km) Total: 1:31:59
4 / 10	Teppei Tokuyama JPN	+47 s +22 s	G1 / G3	34:57 38:00	1:32:07	Show details Prediction details: Teppei Tokuyama Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 2–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 10 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +47 s Time: 19:26 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: 24.9 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 85 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 33 % Speed: 42.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 9.1 s Gap behind: 14.9 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.42 km/h Running and total Run: 34:57 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:32 / km Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 1.07 %, Sicherheit 52 % Ergebnis Lauf: 38:00 (3:48 / km) Error: −3:03 / −0:18 / km Overall prediction: 1:32:07 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:26 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 56:23 (42.6 km/h) Run: 34:57 (3:30 / km) Total: 1:32:07
5 / 2	Kazuna Asanuma JPN	+38 s +23 s	G1 / G2	35:25 33:29	1:32:35	Show details Prediction details: Kazuna Asanuma Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 5–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 19:17 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +23 s Fehler: 14.8 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 81 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 28 % Speed: 42.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.3 s Gap behind: 9.1 s Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 42.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.33 km/h Running and total Run: 35:25 (3:32 / km) Historical basis: 3:33 / km Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 46 % Ergebnis Lauf: 33:29 (3:21 / km) Error: +1:56 / +0:12 / km Overall prediction: 1:32:35 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:17 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 56:23 (42.6 km/h) Run: 35:25 (3:32 / km) Total: 1:32:35
6 / 1	Kazushi Jozuka JPN	+68 s +49 s	G2 / G2 correct	34:20 32:35	1:33:14	Show details Prediction details: Kazushi Jozuka Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 1–10 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +68 s Time: 19:47 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +49 s Fehler: 19.4 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 13 % Speed: 41.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.6 s Gap behind: 4.7 s Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 42.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.17 km/h Running and total Run: 34:20 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:32 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -1.27 %, Sicherheit 58 % Ergebnis Lauf: 32:35 (3:16 / km) Error: +1:45 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: 1:33:14 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:47 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 57:45 (41.5 km/h) Run: 34:20 (3:26 / km) Total: 1:33:14 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 19:29 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 17.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +50.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 12	Yuya Otani JPN	+63 s +53 s	G2 / G4	34:32 37:10	1:33:26	Show details Prediction details: Yuya Otani Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 4–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 12 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +63 s Time: 19:42 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +53 s Fehler: 9.8 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 86 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 6 % Speed: 41.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 5.6 s Result: Group 4 (6 people) Speed: 40.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.66 km/h Running and total Run: 34:32 (3:27 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 62 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:10 (3:43 / km) Error: −2:38 / −0:16 / km Overall prediction: 1:33:26 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:42 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 57:45 (41.5 km/h) Run: 34:32 (3:27 / km) Total: 1:33:26 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 19:30 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 12 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +50.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 8	Kira Wakatake JPN	+62 s +96 s	G2 / G4	34:50 34:45	1:33:44	Show details Prediction details: Kira Wakatake Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 5–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +62 s Time: 19:41 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +96 s Fehler: -34.2 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 99 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 9 % Speed: 41.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 14.9 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 4 (6 people) Speed: 41.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.22 km/h Running and total Run: 34:50 (3:29 / km) Historical basis: 3:28 / km Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 48 % Ergebnis Lauf: 34:45 (3:29 / km) Error: +0:05 / +0:00 / km Overall prediction: 1:33:44 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:41 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 57:45 (41.5 km/h) Run: 34:50 (3:29 / km) Total: 1:33:44 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 19:09 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m About 32.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.3 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 7	Hinata Oyama JPN	+123 s +112 s	G3 / G4	34:13 34:01	1:34:21	Show details Prediction details: Hinata Oyama Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 4–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +123 s Time: 20:42 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +112 s Fehler: 10.8 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 69 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 49.7 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (6 people) Speed: 41.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.65 km/h Running and total Run: 34:13 (3:25 / km) Historical basis: 3:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 63 % Ergebnis Lauf: 34:01 (3:24 / km) Error: +0:12 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 1:34:21 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 20:42 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 58:05 (40.8 km/h) Run: 34:13 (3:25 / km) Total: 1:34:21 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 19:30 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 72 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +50.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 11	Sho Tachibana JPN	+73 s +84 s	G3 / G4	36:20 36:25	1:36:28	Show details Prediction details: Sho Tachibana Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 9–10 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 11 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +73 s Time: 19:52 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +84 s Fehler: -10.9 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 70 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.7 s Gap behind: 49.7 s Result: Group 4 (6 people) Speed: 41.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.30 km/h Running and total Run: 36:20 (3:38 / km) Historical basis: 3:38 / km Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 56 % Ergebnis Lauf: 36:25 (3:39 / km) Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 1:36:28 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 19:52 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 58:05 (40.8 km/h) Run: 36:20 (3:38 / km) Total: 1:36:28 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 19:30 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 22.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +50.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 5	Yuji Iwai JPN	+0 s +102 s	G0 / G4	33:14		Show details Prediction details: Yuji Iwai Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 11–11 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 18:39 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +102 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (6 people) Speed: 41.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 33:14 (3:19 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 18:39 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Syota Nakajima JPN	+0 s +68 s	G0 / G4	33:28		Show details Prediction details: Syota Nakajima Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 12–12 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 18:39 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +68 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (6 people) Speed: 41.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 33:28 (3:21 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 18:39 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13	Kouta Nagira JPN	+0 s +60 s	G0 / G2	39:58		Show details Prediction details: Kouta Nagira Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 13–13 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 18:39 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +60 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 42.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 39:58 (4:00 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 18:39 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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