Prediction comparison

U23 Women

17.11.2024 Daiba JPN

Race information and calculation basis

2024 JPN Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 17.11.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 32/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 23.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 94.1 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error2.3

Mean swim error25.4 s

Mean bike-speed error1.26 km/h

Correct bike groups3/16

No history1

Within the 80% range47.1 %

						Details
1 / 1	Manami Hayashi JPN	+41 s +13 s	G2 / G2 correct	36:23 36:06	1:41:29	Show details Prediction details: Manami Hayashi Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +41 s Time: 21:09 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: 28.4 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 37.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.4 s Gap behind: 4.2 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 37.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.44 km/h Running and total Run: 36:23 (3:38 / km) Historical basis: 3:42 / km Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 88 % Ergebnis Lauf: 36:06 (3:37 / km) Error: +0:17 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 1:41:29 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:09 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:01 (37.5 km/h) Run: 36:23 (3:38 / km) Total: 1:41:29 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:45 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 23.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 2	Kanae Takenaka JPN	+14 s +16 s	G1 / G1 correct	39:19 39:05	1:43:24	Show details Prediction details: Kanae Takenaka Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: 20:42 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +16 s Fehler: -2.4 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 66 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 99 % Speed: 37.6 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 17.4 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.19 km/h Running and total Run: 39:19 (3:56 / km) Historical basis: 3:56 / km Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 66 % Ergebnis Lauf: 39:05 (3:55 / km) Error: +0:14 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 1:43:24 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 20:42 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:51 (37.6 km/h) Run: 39:19 (3:56 / km) Total: 1:43:24
3 / 6	Himeka Sato JPN	+37 s +26 s	G2 / G3	39:24 38:16	1:44:30	Show details Prediction details: Himeka Sato Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 3–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 21:05 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: 11.0 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 56 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 13 % Speed: 37.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.0 s Gap behind: 4.4 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 36.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.78 km/h Running and total Run: 39:24 (3:56 / km) Historical basis: 3:55 / km Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 51 % Ergebnis Lauf: 38:16 (3:50 / km) Error: +1:08 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 1:44:30 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:05 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:01 (37.5 km/h) Run: 39:24 (3:56 / km) Total: 1:44:30 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:46 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 19.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 4	Mako Hiraizumi JPN	+46 s +33 s	G2 / G3	39:30 37:59	1:44:36	Show details Prediction details: Mako Hiraizumi Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 3–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +46 s Time: 21:14 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +33 s Fehler: 12.6 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 8 % Speed: 37.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.2 s Gap behind: 3.3 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 36.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.63 km/h Running and total Run: 39:30 (3:57 / km) Historical basis: 3:57 / km Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 96 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:59 (3:48 / km) Error: +1:31 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 1:44:36 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:14 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:01 (37.5 km/h) Run: 39:30 (3:57 / km) Total: 1:44:36 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:46 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 28.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 5	Ayame Hayashi JPN	+49 s +80 s	G2 / G4	39:51 37:07	1:44:57	Show details Prediction details: Ayame Hayashi Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 4–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +49 s Time: 21:17 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +80 s Fehler: -31.1 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 37.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.3 s Gap behind: 1.7 s Result: Group 4 (7 people) Speed: 36.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.80 km/h Running and total Run: 39:51 (3:59 / km) Historical basis: 3:59 / km Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 89 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:07 (3:43 / km) Error: +2:44 / +0:16 / km Overall prediction: 1:44:57 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:17 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:01 (37.5 km/h) Run: 39:51 (3:59 / km) Total: 1:44:57 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
6 / 11	Rio Noda JPN	+51 s +79 s	G2 / G4	40:20 40:45	1:45:26	Show details Prediction details: Rio Noda Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 5–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 11 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +51 s Time: 21:19 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +79 s Fehler: -28.4 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 93 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 37.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.7 s Gap behind: 6.8 s Result: Group 4 (7 people) Speed: 36.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.80 km/h Running and total Run: 40:20 (4:02 / km) Historical basis: 4:01 / km Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 57 % Ergebnis Lauf: 40:45 (4:05 / km) Error: −0:25 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 1:45:26 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 21:19 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:01 (37.5 km/h) Run: 40:20 (4:02 / km) Total: 1:45:26 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:46 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 33.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 8	Narumi Kanke JPN	+60 s +100 s	G2 / G4	40:35 38:24	1:45:41	Show details Prediction details: Narumi Kanke Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 6–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +60 s Time: 21:28 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +100 s Fehler: -39.7 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 96 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 37.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.9 s Gap behind: 3.7 s Result: Group 4 (7 people) Speed: 36.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.58 km/h Running and total Run: 40:35 (4:03 / km) Historical basis: 4:04 / km Best comparable pace: 4:04 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 87 % Ergebnis Lauf: 38:24 (3:50 / km) Error: +2:11 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: 1:45:41 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:28 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:01 (37.5 km/h) Run: 40:35 (4:03 / km) Total: 1:45:41 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:45 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 42.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 7	Hinaka Masuda JPN	+64 s +24 s	G2 / G1	41:07 40:56	1:46:13	Show details Prediction details: Hinaka Masuda Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 7–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +64 s Time: 21:32 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +24 s Fehler: 40.0 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 37.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.7 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.25 km/h Running and total Run: 41:07 (4:07 / km) Historical basis: 4:06 / km Best comparable pace: 4:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 79 % Ergebnis Lauf: 40:56 (4:06 / km) Error: +0:11 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 1:46:13 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:32 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:01 (37.5 km/h) Run: 41:07 (4:07 / km) Total: 1:46:13 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:46 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 46.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 13	Karin Saito JPN	+57 s +84 s	G2 / G4	44:46 42:15	1:49:52	Show details Prediction details: Karin Saito Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 10–12 Top-10 probability: 48 % Result: 13 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +57 s Time: 21:25 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +84 s Fehler: -26.6 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 10 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 37.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.8 s Gap behind: 2.9 s Result: Group 4 (7 people) Speed: 36.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.67 km/h Running and total Run: 44:46 (4:29 / km) Historical basis: 4:28 / km Best comparable pace: 4:28 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 10 % Ergebnis Lauf: 42:15 (4:14 / km) Error: +2:31 / +0:15 / km Overall prediction: 1:49:52 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 21:25 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:01 (37.5 km/h) Run: 44:46 (4:29 / km) Total: 1:49:52 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:55 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m About 30.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 12	Saki Yanagihara JPN	+31 s +0 s	G2 / G4	45:11 42:01	1:50:17	Show details Prediction details: Saki Yanagihara Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 10–12 Top-10 probability: 41 % Result: 12 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +31 s Time: 20:59 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 31.0 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 99 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 37.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 17.4 s Gap behind: 6.0 s Result: Group 4 (7 people) Speed: 36.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.52 km/h Running and total Run: 45:11 (4:31 / km) Historical basis: 4:32 / km Best comparable pace: 4:32 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 83 % Ergebnis Lauf: 42:01 (4:12 / km) Error: +3:10 / +0:19 / km Overall prediction: 1:50:17 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 20:59 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:01 (37.5 km/h) Run: 45:11 (4:31 / km) Total: 1:50:17 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:46 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 13.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 3	Mao Shimazaki JPN	+114 s +101 s	G5 / G4	36:20 36:21	1:50:44	Show details Prediction details: Mao Shimazaki Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 9–12 Top-10 probability: 61 % Result: 3 Deviation: 8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +114 s Time: 22:22 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +101 s Fehler: 12.6 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 19 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 17.8 s Gap behind: 37.8 s Result: Group 4 (7 people) Speed: 37.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.84 km/h Running and total Run: 36:20 (3:38 / km) Historical basis: 3:36 / km Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.72 %, Sicherheit 19 % Ergebnis Lauf: 36:21 (3:38 / km) Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km Overall prediction: 1:50:44 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 22:22 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:11:52 (33.1 km/h) Run: 36:20 (3:38 / km) Total: 1:50:44 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:46 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 96.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 10	Momoko Seki JPN	+65 s +77 s	G2 / G4	45:55 40:19	1:51:01	Show details Prediction details: Momoko Seki Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 12–15 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +65 s Time: 21:33 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +77 s Fehler: -11.7 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 37.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 25.3 s Result: Group 4 (7 people) Speed: 36.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.79 km/h Running and total Run: 45:55 (4:35 / km) Historical basis: 4:38 / km Best comparable pace: 4:38 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.90 %, Sicherheit 61 % Ergebnis Lauf: 40:19 (4:02 / km) Error: +5:36 / +0:34 / km Overall prediction: 1:51:01 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:33 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:01 (37.5 km/h) Run: 45:55 (4:35 / km) Total: 1:51:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:45 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 47.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 9	Ikumi Seto JPN	+96 s +148 s	G4 / G5	39:28 38:15	1:51:45	Show details Prediction details: Ikumi Seto Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 8–14 Top-10 probability: 50 % Result: 9 Deviation: 4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +96 s Time: 22:04 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +148 s Fehler: -52.2 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.79 %, Sicherheit 26 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 17.8 s Result: Group 5 (5 people) Speed: 36.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.46 km/h Running and total Run: 39:28 (3:57 / km) Historical basis: 3:56 / km Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 35 % Ergebnis Lauf: 38:15 (3:50 / km) Error: +1:13 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 1:51:45 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 22:04 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:10:41 (34.0 km/h) Run: 39:28 (3:57 / km) Total: 1:51:45 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:46 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 78.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 17	Yume Obara JPN	+91 s +120 s	G3 / G5	43:34 41:54	1:52:22	Show details Prediction details: Yume Obara Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 12–15 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 17 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +91 s Time: 21:59 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +120 s Fehler: -29.4 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 25.3 s Gap behind: 4.5 s Result: Group 5 (5 people) Speed: 36.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.61 km/h Running and total Run: 43:34 (4:21 / km) Historical basis: 4:22 / km Best comparable pace: 4:22 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 92 % Ergebnis Lauf: 41:54 (4:11 / km) Error: +1:40 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: 1:52:22 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 21:59 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:07:18 (35.7 km/h) Run: 43:34 (4:21 / km) Total: 1:52:22 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:46 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 73.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 16	Nanami Ishibashi JPN	+95 s +141 s	G4 / G5	43:33 41:34	1:55:50	Show details Prediction details: Nanami Ishibashi Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 13–15 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 16 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +95 s Time: 22:03 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +141 s Fehler: -45.9 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 10 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.5 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 5 (5 people) Speed: 36.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.46 km/h Running and total Run: 43:33 (4:21 / km) Historical basis: 4:21 / km Best comparable pace: 4:21 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 10 % Ergebnis Lauf: 41:34 (4:09 / km) Error: +1:59 / +0:12 / km Overall prediction: 1:55:50 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 22:03 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:10:41 (34.0 km/h) Run: 43:33 (4:21 / km) Total: 1:55:50 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:45 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 77.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 14	Mako Sasaki JPN	+151 s +148 s	G5 / G5 correct	43:13 40:43	1:57:37	Show details Prediction details: Mako Sasaki Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 16–16 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 14 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +151 s Time: 22:59 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +148 s Fehler: 3.4 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 96 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 37.8 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (5 people) Speed: 36.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.39 km/h Running and total Run: 43:13 (4:19 / km) Historical basis: 4:20 / km Best comparable pace: 4:20 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 89 % Ergebnis Lauf: 40:43 (4:04 / km) Error: +2:30 / +0:15 / km Overall prediction: 1:57:37 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 22:59 (1:32 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:11:52 (33.1 km/h) Run: 43:13 (4:19 / km) Total: 1:57:37 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:45 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 133.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 15	Saika Kai JPN	+0 s +137 s	G0 / G5	40:55		Show details Prediction details: Saika Kai Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 17–17 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 15 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 20:28 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +137 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (5 people) Speed: 36.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 40:55 (4:06 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 20:28 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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