Prediction comparison
PTVI Men
22.09.2024
Enschede
NED
Race information and calculation basis
2024 NED Para Triathlon National Championships
Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 22.09.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.
Prediction model used
Modell v15
Default values
Prediction quality
37/100
sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality
Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.
Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s
Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s
Gruppeneffekt 0.65
Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h
Datenabdeckung 33.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen
Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.
Show methodology
Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.
Prediction comparison
Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.0
Mean swim error85.0 s
Mean bike-speed error3.71 km/h
Correct bike groups1/1
No history2
Within the 80% range100.0 %
| Details | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 / 1 |
Sander Koomen B3
NED
|
+85 s
+0 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
29:15
29:18
|
1:00:19 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +85 s
Time: 13:11
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 85.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.71 km/h
Running and totalRun: 29:15 (4:18 / km)
Historical basis: 4:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:18 (4:19 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:00:19
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
13:11
(1:45 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
29:39
(41.7 km/h)
Run:
29:15
(4:18 / km)
Total:
1:00:19
|
| 0 / 2 |
Roel Scheij B2
NED
|
+0 s
+75 s
|
G0 / G2
|
30:56
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation:
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:46
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +75 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:56 (4:33 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming:
11:46
(1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|
|
| 0 / 3 |
Jos Lavrijsen B2
NED
|
+0 s
+217 s
|
G0 / G3
|
41:59
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation:
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:46
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +217 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:59 (6:10 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming:
11:46
(1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|