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Elite Men

14.04.2024 Taupo NZL
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Oceania Triathlon Championships Taupo

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.04.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 68/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 96.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.7
Mean swim error19.2 s
Mean bike-speed error1.00 km/h
Correct bike groups15/27
No history0
Within the 80% range59.3 %
Details
1 / 1 Matthew Hauser
AUS
+24 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		29:53
31:33
 1:26:20
Show details
Prediction details: Matthew Hauser

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 17:07
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 23.9 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.3 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 29:53 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 31 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:33 (3:09 / km)
Error: −1:40 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:07 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:54 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 29:53 (2:59 / km)
Total: 1:26:20
2 / 5 Brayden Mercer
AUS
+14 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		31:06
32:56
 1:27:33
Show details
Prediction details: Brayden Mercer

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 16:57
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 13.6 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.6 s
Gap behind: 10.3 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:06 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 87 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:56 (3:18 / km)
Error: −1:50 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:33
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 16:57 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:54 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 31:06 (3:07 / km)
Total: 1:27:33
3 / 3 Brandon Copeland
AUS
+33 s
+17 s
G1 / G1
correct 		31:26
32:27
 1:27:53
Show details
Prediction details: Brandon Copeland

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–9
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 17:16
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 15.6 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 4.7 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:26 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 97 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:27 (3:15 / km)
Error: −1:01 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:16 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:54 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 31:26 (3:09 / km)
Total: 1:27:53
4 / 12 Kurt Wesley
AUS
+46 s
+22 s
G2 / G2
correct 		31:10
33:16
 1:28:05
Show details
Prediction details: Kurt Wesley

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–9
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 17:29
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 23.6 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:10 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:16 (3:20 / km)
Error: −2:06 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:29 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:05 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 31:10 (3:07 / km)
Total: 1:28:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:20
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 9.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 4 Jacob Birtwhistle
AUS
+59 s
+36 s
G3 / G2
 30:34
31:26
 1:28:22
Show details
Prediction details: Jacob Birtwhistle

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–17
Top-10 probability: 75 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 17:42
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 23.2 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 92 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:34 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 92 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:26 (3:09 / km)
Error: −0:52 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:42 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:42 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 30:34 (3:03 / km)
Total: 1:28:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:34
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +51.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 8 Oscar Dart
AUS
+48 s
+20 s
G2 / G1
 31:36
33:57
 1:28:31
Show details
Prediction details: Oscar Dart

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 1–13
Top-10 probability: 70 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 17:31
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 28.2 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 144 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:36 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 144 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:57 (3:24 / km)
Error: −2:21 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:31 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:05 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 31:36 (3:10 / km)
Total: 1:28:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
7 / 13 Lachlan Jones
AUS
+38 s
+9 s
G2 / G2
correct 		31:40
33:43
 1:28:35
Show details
Prediction details: Lachlan Jones

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 3–8
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 17:21
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 29.2 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:40 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur 0.62 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:43 (3:22 / km)
Error: −2:03 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:21 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:05 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 31:40 (3:10 / km)
Total: 1:28:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:19
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 1.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 2 Tayler Reid
NZL
+31 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		32:26
32:01
 1:28:53
Show details
Prediction details: Tayler Reid

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 3–13
Top-10 probability: 64 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 17:14
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 29.3 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.3 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:26 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:01 (3:12 / km)
Error: +0:25 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:14 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:54 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 32:26 (3:15 / km)
Total: 1:28:53
9 / 7 Christopher Deegan
AUS
+8 s
+3 s
G1 / G2
 32:30
32:11
 1:28:57
Show details
Prediction details: Christopher Deegan

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 6–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 16:51
Pace: 1:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 5.0 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 1.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 5.6 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:30 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.79 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:11 (3:13 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 16:51 (1:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:54 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 32:30 (3:15 / km)
Total: 1:28:57
10 / 22 Henry McMecking
NZL
+62 s
+76 s
G3 / G3
correct 		31:16
35:05
 1:29:04
Show details
Prediction details: Henry McMecking

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 5–19
Top-10 probability: 48 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 17:45
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +76 s
Fehler: -13.7 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 131 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 3.3 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:16 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur 0.76 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:05 (3:31 / km)
Error: −3:49 / −0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:45 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:42 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 31:16 (3:08 / km)
Total: 1:29:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:19
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 25.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 11 Saxon Morgan
NZL
+41 s
+20 s
G2 / G1
 32:26
34:31
 1:29:21
Show details
Prediction details: Saxon Morgan

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 6–12
Top-10 probability: 69 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 17:24
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 20.9 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 167 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:26 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 167 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:31 (3:27 / km)
Error: −2:05 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:24 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:05 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 32:26 (3:15 / km)
Total: 1:29:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:20
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 4.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 6 Janus Staufenberg
NZL
+60 s
+27 s
G3 / G2
 31:46
31:52
 1:29:34
Show details
Prediction details: Janus Staufenberg

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 6–19
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 17:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 32.6 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:46 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 86 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:52 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:43 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:42 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 31:46 (3:11 / km)
Total: 1:29:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:35
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 8.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +51.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 21 James Corbett
TRI
+48 s
+19 s
G2 / G2
correct 		32:49
36:10
 1:29:44
Show details
Prediction details: James Corbett

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 8–18
Top-10 probability: 31 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 17:31
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 28.8 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:49 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:10 (3:37 / km)
Error: −3:21 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:31 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:05 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 32:49 (3:17 / km)
Total: 1:29:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:20
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 11.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 16 Lachlan Haycock
NZL
+50 s
+39 s
G2 / G2
correct 		33:42
34:27
 1:30:37
Show details
Prediction details: Lachlan Haycock

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 12–20
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 17:33
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 11.2 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 141 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 3.7 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:42 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 141 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:27 (3:27 / km)
Error: −0:45 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:33 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:05 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 33:42 (3:22 / km)
Total: 1:30:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:19
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 13.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 17 Kye Wylde
AUS
+45 s
+72 s
G2 / G3
 33:54
33:45
 1:30:49
Show details
Prediction details: Kye Wylde

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 11–20
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 17:28
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +72 s
Fehler: -26.9 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 31 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:54 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.90 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:45 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:09 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:28 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:05 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 33:54 (3:23 / km)
Total: 1:30:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:19
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 8.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 20 Rory Thornhill
AUS
+49 s
+30 s
G2 / G2
correct 		34:06
35:56
 1:31:01
Show details
Prediction details: Rory Thornhill

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 13–20
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 17:32
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 19.4 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:06 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:56 (3:36 / km)
Error: −1:50 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:32 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:05 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 34:06 (3:25 / km)
Total: 1:31:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:19
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 12.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 10 Luke Bate
AUS
+48 s
+24 s
G2 / G2
correct 		34:13
32:58
 1:31:08
Show details
Prediction details: Luke Bate

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 14–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 17:31
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 23.9 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 81 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:13 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -1.34 %, Sicherheit 64 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:58 (3:18 / km)
Error: +1:15 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:31 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:05 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 34:13 (3:25 / km)
Total: 1:31:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:20
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 11.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 26 Benjamin Airey
NZL
+42 s
+40 s
G2 / G3
 34:37
40:50
 1:31:32
Show details
Prediction details: Benjamin Airey

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 14–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 17:25
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 1.9 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:37 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 93 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:50 (4:05 / km)
Error: −6:13 / −0:37 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:25 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:05 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 34:37 (3:28 / km)
Total: 1:31:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:20
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 5.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 24 Lleyton Wall
AUS
+42 s
+29 s
G2 / G2
correct 		34:38
37:31
 1:31:33
Show details
Prediction details: Lleyton Wall

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 14–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 17:25
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 13.2 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:38 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:31 (3:45 / km)
Error: −2:53 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:25 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:05 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 34:38 (3:28 / km)
Total: 1:31:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:19
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 5.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 9 Bradley Course
AUS
+54 s
+33 s
G3 / G2
 33:58
32:55
 1:31:46
Show details
Prediction details: Bradley Course

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 12–22
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 17:37
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 20.9 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 113 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.7 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:58 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur -1.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:55 (3:18 / km)
Error: +1:03 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:37 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:42 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 33:58 (3:24 / km)
Total: 1:31:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:34
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 2.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +51.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 18 Jack Crome
AUS
+27 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		35:38
37:09
 1:32:05
Show details
Prediction details: Jack Crome

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 17–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 17:10
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 24.0 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 4.3 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:38 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:09 (3:43 / km)
Error: −1:31 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:32:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:10 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 55:54 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 35:38 (3:34 / km)
Total: 1:32:05
22 / 25 Grayson Westgate
NZL
+66 s
+42 s
G3 / G2
 34:51
38:37
 1:32:39
Show details
Prediction details: Grayson Westgate

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 19–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +66 s
Time: 17:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 23.6 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.3 s
Gap behind: 13.0 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:51 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:37 (3:52 / km)
Error: −3:46 / −0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 1:32:39
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:49 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:42 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 34:51 (3:29 / km)
Total: 1:32:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:20
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 29.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 23 Jack Staples
NZL
+37 s
+40 s
G2 / G2
correct 		37:17
36:46
 1:34:12
Show details
Prediction details: Jack Staples

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 22–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 17:20
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: -2.7 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 98 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.7 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:17 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 74 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:46 (3:41 / km)
Error: +0:31 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:12
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:20 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:05 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 37:17 (3:44 / km)
Total: 1:34:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:19
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 0.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 19 Gus Marfell
NZL
+79 s
+79 s
G4 / G3
 33:13
34:45
 1:34:19
Show details
Prediction details: Gus Marfell

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 13–27
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +79 s
Time: 18:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +79 s
Fehler: -0.4 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 13.0 s
Gap behind: 4.8 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:13 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:45 (3:29 / km)
Error: −1:32 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:19
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:40 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 33:13 (3:19 / km)
Total: 1:34:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:20
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 42.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 14 Toby Powers
AUS
+83 s
+77 s
G4 / G3
 33:50
32:34
 1:34:56
Show details
Prediction details: Toby Powers

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 22–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +83 s
Time: 18:06
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +77 s
Fehler: 6.4 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 63 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.8 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:50 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 48 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:34 (3:15 / km)
Error: +1:16 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:06 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:40 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 33:50 (3:23 / km)
Total: 1:34:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:19
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 46.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 15 David Martin
CZE
+57 s
+8 s
G3 / G1
 37:09
35:31
 1:34:57
Show details
Prediction details: David Martin

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 22–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 17:40
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 48.5 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 41 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:09 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.92 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:31 (3:33 / km)
Error: +1:38 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:40 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:42 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 37:09 (3:43 / km)
Total: 1:34:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:20
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 20 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 27 Oliver Larcombe
NZL
+87 s
+79 s
G4 / G4
correct 		34:51
38:37
 1:35:57
Show details
Prediction details: Oliver Larcombe

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 23–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +87 s
Time: 18:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +79 s
Fehler: 7.5 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:51 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:37 (3:52 / km)
Error: −3:46 / −0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:10 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:40 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 34:51 (3:29 / km)
Total: 1:35:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:20
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 50 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.