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Qualifier 1 Elite Women

05.04.2024 Gold Coast AUS
Race information and calculation basis
2024 Oceania Triathlon Super-Sprint Championships Gold Coast

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 05.04.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 38/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 36.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 18.2 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.4
Mean swim error17.3 s
Mean bike-speed error7.06 km/h
Correct bike groups5/9
No history2
Within the 80% range45.5 %
Details
1 / 1 Emma Jeffcoat
AUS
+4 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		3:34
3:56
 10:21
Show details
Prediction details: Emma Jeffcoat

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +4 s
Time: 2:03
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 4.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 31.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 3:34 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:56 (3:35 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 10:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 2:03 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 6:22 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 3:34 (3:14 / km)
Total: 10:21
2 / 2 Charlotte McShane
AUS
+25 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		3:34
3:59
 10:21
Show details
Prediction details: Charlotte McShane

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 2:24
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 16.7 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 14.8 s
Gap behind: 28.8 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 3:34 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:59 (3:37 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 10:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 2:24 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 6:22 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 3:34 (3:14 / km)
Total: 10:21
3 / 3 Aspen Anderson
AUS
+9 s
+7 s
G1 / G1
correct 		3:44
4:10
 10:31
Show details
Prediction details: Aspen Anderson

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 2:08
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 1.5 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 79 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 3:44 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:10 (3:47 / km)
Error: −0:26 / −0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 10:31
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 2:08 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 6:22 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 3:44 (3:23 / km)
Total: 10:31
4 / 6 Gwen Watson
AUS
+8 s
+8 s
G1 / G3
 3:45
4:28
 10:32
Show details
Prediction details: Gwen Watson

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 2:07
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: -0.2 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 28.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 9.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 3:45 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:28 (4:04 / km)
Error: −0:43 / −0:39 / km
Overall prediction: 10:32
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 2:07 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 6:22 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 3:45 (3:25 / km)
Total: 10:32
5 / 4 Jessica Ewart-Mctigue
AUS
+54 s
+11 s
G2 / G2
correct 		3:32
4:12
 10:51
Show details
Prediction details: Jessica Ewart-Mctigue

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 2–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 2:53
Pace: 1:55 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 42.5 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 28.8 s
Gap behind: 38.3 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 29.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 3:32 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:12 (3:49 / km)
Error: −0:40 / −0:37 / km
Overall prediction: 10:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 2:53 (1:55 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 6:26 (37.3 km/h)
Run: 3:32 (3:12 / km)
Total: 10:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 2:28
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
About 24.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 8 Hayley Cornwall
NZL
+9 s
+8 s
G1 / G3
 4:05
4:46
 10:52
Show details
Prediction details: Hayley Cornwall

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 2:08
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 1.2 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 74 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 28.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:05 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:46 (4:20 / km)
Error: −0:41 / −0:37 / km
Overall prediction: 10:52
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 2:08 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 6:22 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 4:05 (3:43 / km)
Total: 10:52
7 / 10 Isabelle Bannister
NZL
+10 s
+4 s
G1 / G3
 4:15
5:14
 11:02
Show details
Prediction details: Isabelle Bannister

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 6–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 2:09
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 5.9 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 14.8 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 28.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:15 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:14 (4:45 / km)
Error: −0:59 / −0:54 / km
Overall prediction: 11:02
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 2:09 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 6:22 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 4:15 (3:51 / km)
Total: 11:02
8 / 5 Lulu Johnson
NZL
+6 s
+5 s
G1 / G2
 4:20
4:34
 11:07
Show details
Prediction details: Lulu Johnson

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 6–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 2:05
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 1.1 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 29.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:20 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:34 (4:09 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 11:07
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 2:05 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 6:22 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 4:20 (3:57 / km)
Total: 11:07
9 / 7 Grace Kells
AUS
+92 s
+9 s
G3 / G3
correct 		3:43
4:40
 12:26
Show details
Prediction details: Grace Kells

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +92 s
Time: 3:31
Pace: 2:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 82.8 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 38.3 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 28.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 3:43 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:40 (4:15 / km)
Error: −0:57 / −0:52 / km
Overall prediction: 12:26
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 3:31 (2:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 7:12 (33.4 km/h)
Run: 3:43 (3:22 / km)
Total: 12:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 2:13
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
About 78 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 9 Tully Schweitzer
AUS
+0 s
+12 s
G0 / G3
4:50
Show details
Prediction details: Tully Schweitzer

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 1:59
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 29.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:50 (4:24 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 1:59 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Emily Rice
AUS
+0 s
+17 s
G0 / G4
4:51
Show details
Prediction details: Emily Rice

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 1:59
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 27.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:51 (4:25 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 1:59 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.