Prediction comparison

Elite Men

07.07.2024 Säter SWE

Race information and calculation basis

2024 SWE Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 07.07.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 41/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 41.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 64.7 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.5

Mean swim error29.6 s

Mean bike-speed error3.31 km/h

Correct bike groups1/13

No history4

Within the 80% range29.4 %

						Details
1 / 5	Paul Frayon SWE	+15 s +3 s	G1 / G4	34:43 34:21	1:33:15	Show details Prediction details: Paul Frayon Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 3–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +15 s Time: 9:48 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +3 s Fehler: 12.0 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 86 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 76 % Speed: 41.2 km/h Gap ahead: 3.3 s Gap behind: 3.7 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 36.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.22 km/h Running and total Run: 34:43 (3:28 / km) Historical basis: 3:32 / km Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 9 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 27 % Ergebnis Lauf: 34:21 (3:26 / km) Error: +0:22 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 1:33:15 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 58:14 (41.2 km/h) Run: 34:43 (3:28 / km) Total: 1:33:15
2 / 2	Oscar Lilja SWE	+19 s +0 s	G1 / G2	35:03 34:24	1:33:35	Show details Prediction details: Oscar Lilja Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 3–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +19 s Time: 9:52 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 18.7 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 86 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 85 % Speed: 41.2 km/h Gap ahead: 3.7 s Gap behind: 9.5 s Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 37.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.18 km/h Running and total Run: 35:03 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:32 / km Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 9 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.95 %, Sicherheit 23 % Ergebnis Lauf: 34:24 (3:26 / km) Error: +0:39 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 1:33:35 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:52 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 58:14 (41.2 km/h) Run: 35:03 (3:30 / km) Total: 1:33:35
3 / 1	Gabriel Sandör SWE	+28 s +16 s	G2 / G1	35:01 33:25	1:34:19	Show details Prediction details: Gabriel Sandör Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 3–6 Top-10 probability: 99 % Result: 1 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 10:01 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +16 s Fehler: 12.2 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 1.20 %, Sicherheit 73 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 49 % Speed: 40.8 km/h Gap ahead: 9.5 s Gap behind: 5.8 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 38.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.48 km/h Running and total Run: 35:01 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:33 / km Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -1.28 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 33:25 (3:21 / km) Error: +1:36 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: 1:34:19 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 58:49 (40.8 km/h) Run: 35:01 (3:30 / km) Total: 1:34:19 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:55 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 5.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 4	Daniel Nou SWE	+34 s +19 s	G3 / G3 correct	34:32 35:04	1:35:17	Show details Prediction details: Daniel Nou Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 4–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +34 s Time: 10:07 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +19 s Fehler: 15.0 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.82 %, Sicherheit 15 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 15 % Speed: 39.9 km/h Gap ahead: 5.8 s Gap behind: 4.7 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 36.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.17 km/h Running and total Run: 34:32 (3:27 / km) Historical basis: 3:29 / km Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.06 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 35:04 (3:30 / km) Error: −0:32 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 1:35:17 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:11 (39.9 km/h) Run: 34:32 (3:27 / km) Total: 1:35:17 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:56 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 11.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 7	Gustav Bach SWE	+12 s +20 s	G1 / G5	39:27 38:28	1:37:59	Show details Prediction details: Gustav Bach Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 6–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +12 s Time: 9:45 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +20 s Fehler: -8.3 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 85 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 64 % Speed: 41.2 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 3.3 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 35.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.31 km/h Running and total Run: 39:27 (3:57 / km) Historical basis: 4:00 / km Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 29 % Ergebnis Lauf: 38:28 (3:51 / km) Error: +0:59 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 1:37:59 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 58:14 (41.2 km/h) Run: 39:27 (3:57 / km) Total: 1:37:59
6 / 6	Leon Dahlin SWE	+84 s +80 s	G5 / G6	35:45 36:49	1:42:13	Show details Prediction details: Leon Dahlin Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 7–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +84 s Time: 10:57 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +80 s Fehler: 3.5 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 84 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 16.8 s Gap behind: 11.5 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 36.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.84 km/h Running and total Run: 35:45 (3:35 / km) Historical basis: 3:38 / km Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 27 % Ergebnis Lauf: 36:49 (3:41 / km) Error: −1:04 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: 1:42:13 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:57 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:53 (36.9 km/h) Run: 35:45 (3:35 / km) Total: 1:42:13 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:56 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 60.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 8	Emil Frayon SWE	+39 s +8 s	G4 / G7	37:33 37:27	1:43:17	Show details Prediction details: Emil Frayon Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 7–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +39 s Time: 10:12 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +8 s Fehler: 30.7 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 62 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 36.9 km/h Gap ahead: 4.7 s Gap behind: 22.5 s Result: Group 7 (2 people) Speed: 34.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.11 km/h Running and total Run: 37:33 (3:45 / km) Historical basis: 3:46 / km Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:27 (3:45 / km) Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 1:43:17 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:12 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:06 (36.9 km/h) Run: 37:33 (3:45 / km) Total: 1:43:17 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:56 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 16.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 12	Noah Petersson SWE	+61 s +42 s	G5 / G7	38:38 40:25	1:45:06	Show details Prediction details: Noah Petersson Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 10–11 Top-10 probability: 66 % Result: 12 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +61 s Time: 10:34 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +42 s Fehler: 19.2 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 79 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 22.5 s Gap behind: 5.5 s Result: Group 7 (2 people) Speed: 35.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.77 km/h Running and total Run: 38:38 (3:52 / km) Historical basis: 3:54 / km Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 27 % Ergebnis Lauf: 40:25 (4:03 / km) Error: −1:47 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: 1:45:06 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:34 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:53 (36.9 km/h) Run: 38:38 (3:52 / km) Total: 1:45:06 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:55 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 38.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 11	Oskar Arvidsson SWE	+67 s +39 s	G5 / G8	39:06 37:18	1:45:34	Show details Prediction details: Oskar Arvidsson Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 10–11 Top-10 probability: 35 % Result: 11 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +67 s Time: 10:40 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: 27.7 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 62 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.5 s Gap behind: 16.8 s Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 34.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.67 km/h Running and total Run: 39:06 (3:55 / km) Historical basis: 3:55 / km Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:18 (3:44 / km) Error: +1:48 / +0:11 / km Overall prediction: 1:45:34 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:40 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:53 (36.9 km/h) Run: 39:06 (3:55 / km) Total: 1:45:34 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:56 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 44.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 17	Jakob Nyström SWE	+114 s +113 s	G6 / G11	56:02 1:01	2:04:09	Show details Prediction details: Jakob Nyström Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 12–12 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 17 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +114 s Time: 11:27 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +113 s Fehler: 1.4 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 62 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 19.4 s Gap behind: 102.6 s Result: Group 11 (1 people) Speed: 31.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.43 km/h Running and total Run: 56:02 (5:36 / km) Historical basis: 5:37 / km Best comparable pace: 5:37 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 1:01 (0:06 / km) Error: +55:01 / +5:30 / km Overall prediction: 2:04:09 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 11:27 (1:32 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:30 (36.3 km/h) Run: 56:02 (5:36 / km) Total: 2:04:09 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:55 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 91.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 16	Max Rundström SWE	+299 s +260 s	G7 / G13	49:14 50:42	2:11:30	Show details Prediction details: Max Rundström Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 13–13 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 16 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +299 s Time: 14:32 Pace: 1:56 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +260 s Fehler: 39.4 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 62 % Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 31.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 82.4 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 13 (1 people) Speed: 30.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.95 km/h Running and total Run: 49:14 (4:55 / km) Historical basis: 4:56 / km Best comparable pace: 4:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 50:42 (5:04 / km) Error: −1:28 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: 2:11:30 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 14:32 (1:56 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:17:16 (31.1 km/h) Run: 49:14 (4:55 / km) Total: 2:11:30 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:55 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 276.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3	Albert Askengren SWE	+217 s +80 s	G6 / G2	35:05		Show details Prediction details: Albert Askengren Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +217 s Time: 13:10 Pace: 1:45 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +80 s Fehler: 137.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 102.6 s Gap behind: 82.4 s Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.59 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 35:05 (3:31 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 13:10 (1:45 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:30 (36.3 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:56 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 194.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 9	Joakim Frisk SWE	+0 s +254 s	G0 / G9	35:39		Show details Prediction details: Joakim Frisk Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 14–14 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:33 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +254 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 36.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 35:39 (3:34 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Kim Andersson SWE	+0 s +211 s	G0 / G10	35:50		Show details Prediction details: Kim Andersson Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 15–15 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:33 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +211 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 10 (2 people) Speed: 35.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 35:50 (3:35 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13	Alfred Viktorsson SWE	+0 s +162 s	G0 / G10	45:59		Show details Prediction details: Alfred Viktorsson Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 16–16 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:33 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +162 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 10 (2 people) Speed: 35.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 45:59 (4:36 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14	Anton Arvidson SWE	+0 s +210 s	G0 / G12	39:57		Show details Prediction details: Anton Arvidson Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 17–17 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 14 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:33 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +210 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 12 (1 people) Speed: 31.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 39:57 (4:00 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15	Robin Andersson SWE	+95 s +155 s	G5 / G14	46:23		Show details Prediction details: Robin Andersson Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 15 Deviation: -15 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +95 s Time: 11:08 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +155 s Fehler: -60.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 11.5 s Gap behind: 19.4 s Result: Group 14 (1 people) Speed: 28.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 8.30 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 46:23 (4:38 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 11:08 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:04:53 (36.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:56 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 72.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

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