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Elite Women

07.07.2024 Säter SWE
Race information and calculation basis
2024 SWE Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 07.07.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 41/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 42.9 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 71.4 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.3
Mean swim error45.4 s
Mean bike-speed error3.74 km/h
Correct bike groups0/7
No history0
Within the 80% range100.0 %
Details
1 / 1 Lisa Norden
SWE
+133 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 35:55
40:59
 1:48:20
Show details
Prediction details: Lisa Norden

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +133 s
Time: 12:09
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 133.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 30.2 s
Gap behind: 40.5 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:55 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:59 (4:06 / km)
Error: −5:04 / −0:30 / km
Overall prediction: 1:48:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:09 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:10:12 (34.0 km/h)
Run: 35:55 (3:36 / km)
Total: 1:48:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:34
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
About 34.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +98.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 2 Alma Bergqvist
SWE
+65 s
+2 s
G1 / G4
 40:22
39:59
 1:49:12
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Prediction details: Alma Bergqvist

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +65 s
Time: 11:01
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 63.2 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 31 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 17.3 s
Gap behind: 32.3 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 31.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:22 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:59 (4:00 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:49:12
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:01 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:07:12 (35.7 km/h)
Run: 40:22 (4:02 / km)
Total: 1:49:12
3 / 3 Anna Söderqvist
SWE
+98 s
+107 s
G1 / G2
 44:20
44:45
 1:53:10
Show details
Prediction details: Anna Söderqvist

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +98 s
Time: 11:34
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +107 s
Fehler: -9.5 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 32.3 s
Gap behind: 5.0 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 44:20 (4:26 / km)
Historical basis: 4:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 44:45 (4:29 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:53:10
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:34 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:07:12 (35.7 km/h)
Run: 44:20 (4:26 / km)
Total: 1:53:10
4 / 4 Mathilda Nilsson
SWE
+48 s
+27 s
G1 / G3
 46:56
44:06
 1:55:46
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Prediction details: Mathilda Nilsson

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 20.9 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.12 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 17.3 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 46:56 (4:42 / km)
Historical basis: 4:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.84 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 44:06 (4:25 / km)
Error: +2:50 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 1:55:46
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:44 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:07:12 (35.7 km/h)
Run: 46:56 (4:42 / km)
Total: 1:55:46
5 / 5 Kristina Vestman
SWE
+103 s
+105 s
G2 / G5
 45:00
46:34
 1:57:25
Show details
Prediction details: Kristina Vestman

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +103 s
Time: 11:39
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +105 s
Fehler: -2.5 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.0 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 30.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 45:00 (4:30 / km)
Historical basis: 4:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 46:34 (4:39 / km)
Error: −1:34 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:57:25
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:39 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:10:12 (34.0 km/h)
Run: 45:00 (4:30 / km)
Total: 1:57:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:06
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
About 33.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 7 Sandra Trigell
SWE
+103 s
+142 s
G2 / G7
 50:50
49:22
 2:03:15
Show details
Prediction details: Sandra Trigell

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 6–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +103 s
Time: 11:39
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +142 s
Fehler: -39.2 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 30.2 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 26.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 50:50 (5:05 / km)
Historical basis: 5:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 49:22 (4:56 / km)
Error: +1:28 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 2:03:15
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 11:39 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:10:12 (34.0 km/h)
Run: 50:50 (5:05 / km)
Total: 2:03:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:05
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
About 33.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 6 Josephine Naylor
SWE
+174 s
+124 s
G3 / G6
 46:55
44:59
 2:03:30
Show details
Prediction details: Josephine Naylor

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 6–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +174 s
Time: 12:50
Pace: 1:43 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +124 s
Fehler: 49.5 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 40.5 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 28.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 46:55 (4:41 / km)
Historical basis: 4:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 44:59 (4:30 / km)
Error: +1:56 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 2:03:30
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 12:50 (1:43 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:13:41 (32.6 km/h)
Run: 46:55 (4:41 / km)
Total: 2:03:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:06
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
About 104.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +69.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.