Prediction comparison

Elite Women

20.07.2025 Eğirdir TUR

Race information and calculation basis

2024 TUR Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 20.07.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 25/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 50.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 50.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error1.5

Mean swim error52.5 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history2

					Details
0 / 1	Özlenen İpek Günad TUR	+23 s +99 s	G0 / G1	42:12	Show details Prediction details: Özlenen İpek Günad Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +99 s Fehler: -76.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.78 %, Sicherheit 0 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 42:12 (4:13 / km) Historical basis: 4:07 / km Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 0 % Ergebnis Lauf: 43:35 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 42:12 (4:13 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Selinay Tuğçe Kır TUR	+29 s +0 s	G0 / G2	46:42	Show details Prediction details: Selinay Tuğçe Kır Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 29.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.77 %, Sicherheit 0 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 46:42 (4:40 / km) Historical basis: 4:52 / km Best comparable pace: 4:17 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 0 % Ergebnis Lauf: 44:24 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 46:42 (4:40 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Derya Uluçay TUR	+0 s +191 s	G0 / G3		Show details Prediction details: Derya Uluçay Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +191 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 49:23 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Elif Or TUR	+0 s +228 s	G0 / G4		Show details Prediction details: Elif Or Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +228 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 50:06 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total