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Prediction comparison

30-34 Female AG

19.10.2024 Torremolinos ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2024 World Triathlon Age-Group Aquabike Championships Torremolinos-Andalucia

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 19.10.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 0/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 26.3 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error8.8
Mean swim error65.9 s
Correct bike groups0/0
No history5
Details
0 / 1 Hannah Potter
GBR
+30 s
+21 s
G0 / G1
Show details
Prediction details: Hannah Potter

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 9.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Victoria Rothwell
GBR
+245 s
+194 s
G0 / G1
Show details
Prediction details: Victoria Rothwell

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +245 s
Time:
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +194 s
Fehler: 51.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Ashleigh McManus
GBR
+64 s
+46 s
G0 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Ashleigh McManus

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time:
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: 18.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Petra Autengruber
AUT
+219 s
+331 s
G0 / G3
Show details
Prediction details: Petra Autengruber

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +219 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +331 s
Fehler: -112.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Ella Carter
GBR
+76 s
+0 s
G0 / G4
Show details
Prediction details: Ella Carter

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +76 s
Time:
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 76.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Amelie Roland
IRL
+0 s
+202 s
G0 / G5
Show details
Prediction details: Amelie Roland

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +202 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Sybilla Merian
SUI
+194 s
+228 s
G0 / G6
 53:50
Show details
Prediction details: Sybilla Merian

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +194 s
Time:
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +228 s
Fehler: -34.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 53:50 (5:23 / km)
Historical basis: 5:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 53:50 (5:23 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Florence Carruthers
GBR
+217 s
+261 s
G0 / G7
Show details
Prediction details: Florence Carruthers

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +217 s
Time:
Pace: 2:06 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +261 s
Fehler: -44.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Elisa Martinez
MEX
+115 s
+60 s
G0 / G8
 47:38
Show details
Prediction details: Elisa Martinez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +115 s
Time:
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: 55.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 47:38 (4:46 / km)
Historical basis: 4:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 47:38 (4:46 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Klaudia Balvanová
SVK
+269 s
+308 s
G0 / G9
Show details
Prediction details: Klaudia Balvanová

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +269 s
Time:
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +308 s
Fehler: -39.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Maria De La Soledad Zurita Lozano
ESP
+0 s
+15 s
G0 / G10
Show details
Prediction details: Maria De La Soledad Zurita Lozano

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Elanor Cadzow
GBR
+201 s
+239 s
G0 / G11
Show details
Prediction details: Elanor Cadzow

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +201 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +239 s
Fehler: -38.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Rachel Gilbert
GBR
+0 s
+304 s
G0 / G12
Show details
Prediction details: Rachel Gilbert

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +304 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 12 (2 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Elizabeth Longinotti
GBR
+450 s
+213 s
G0 / G12
 1:01:48
Show details
Prediction details: Elizabeth Longinotti

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +450 s
Time:
Pace: 1:50 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +213 s
Fehler: 237.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 12 (2 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:01:48 (6:11 / km)
Historical basis: 6:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 1:01:48 (6:11 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15 Eleanor Perkins
GBR
+337 s
+381 s
G0 / G13
Show details
Prediction details: Eleanor Perkins

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +337 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +381 s
Fehler: -44.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 13 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 16 Mariana Guerrero Sánchez
MEX
+237 s
+327 s
G0 / G14
 44:47
Show details
Prediction details: Mariana Guerrero Sánchez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +237 s
Time:
Pace: 2:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +327 s
Fehler: -90.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 14 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 44:47 (4:29 / km)
Historical basis: 4:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 44:47 (4:29 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 17 Heather Noble
CAN
+369 s
+293 s
G0 / G15
Show details
Prediction details: Heather Noble

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +369 s
Time:
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +293 s
Fehler: 76.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 15 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 18 Emma Lewis
GBR
+0 s
+574 s
G0 / G16
Show details
Prediction details: Emma Lewis

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +574 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 16 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 19 Sara McFadden
USA
+0 s
+163 s
G0 / G17
Show details
Prediction details: Sara McFadden

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +163 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 17 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.