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Prediction comparison

70-74 Female AG

19.10.2024 Torremolinos ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2024 World Triathlon Age-Group Aquabike Championships Torremolinos-Andalucia

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 19.10.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 17/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 33.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 66.7 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.0
Mean swim error95.7 s
Correct bike groups0/0
No history0
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
0 / 1 Jan Talbot
USA
+226 s
+0 s
G0 / G1
Show details
Prediction details: Jan Talbot

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +226 s
Time:
Pace: 2:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 226.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Anne Brasier
USA
+201 s
+169 s
G0 / G2
 1:13:00
Show details
Prediction details: Anne Brasier

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +201 s
Time:
Pace: 3:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +169 s
Fehler: 32.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:13:00 (7:18 / km)
Historical basis: 7:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 1:13:00 (7:18 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 María Teresa Vargas González
MEX
+223 s
+252 s
G0 / G3
 1:15:16
Show details
Prediction details: María Teresa Vargas González

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +223 s
Time:
Pace: 2:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +252 s
Fehler: -29.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 1:15:16 (7:32 / km)
Historical basis: 7:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 1:15:16 (7:32 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.