Prediction comparison

70-74 Male AG

23.08.2024 Townsville AUS

Race information and calculation basis

2024 World Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Townsville

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 23.08.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 22/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 44.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 22.2 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error4.9

Mean swim error198.4 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history1

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Greg Salter AUS	+96 s +0 s	Bike DNF		Show details Prediction details: Greg Salter Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +96 s Time: 18:51 Pace: 1:53 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 96.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 10:31 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:51 (1:53 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	James Huguenard USA	+222 s +112 s	Bike DNF	11:55	Show details Prediction details: James Huguenard Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +222 s Time: 20:57 Pace: 2:06 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +112 s Fehler: 110.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 11:55 (4:46 / km) Historical basis: 4:46 / km Best comparable pace: 4:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 11:11 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 20:57 (2:06 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 11:55 (4:46 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Rod Rose AUS	+330 s +363 s	Bike DNF		Show details Prediction details: Rod Rose Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +330 s Time: 22:45 Pace: 2:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +363 s Fehler: -33.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 11:37 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 22:45 (2:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Philip Kidd GBR	+274 s +372 s	Bike DNF	11:37	Show details Prediction details: Philip Kidd Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +274 s Time: 21:49 Pace: 2:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +372 s Fehler: -97.9 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 11:37 (4:39 / km) Historical basis: 4:32 / km Best comparable pace: 4:18 / km Trend: −0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 11:16 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:49 (2:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 11:37 (4:39 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Pat Brooks USA	+169 s +287 s	Bike DNF	13:49	Show details Prediction details: Pat Brooks Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +169 s Time: 20:04 Pace: 2:00 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +287 s Fehler: -118.1 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 13:49 (5:32 / km) Historical basis: 5:32 / km Best comparable pace: 5:28 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 13:33 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:04 (2:00 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 13:49 (5:32 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	William Smith USA	+0 s +482 s	Bike DNF		Show details Prediction details: William Smith Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 17:15 Pace: 1:44 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +482 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 13:18 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 17:15 (1:44 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Richard Bedford AUS	+209 s +440 s	Bike DNF		Show details Prediction details: Richard Bedford Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +209 s Time: 20:44 Pace: 2:04 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +440 s Fehler: -231.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:45 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 20:44 (2:04 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Francisco Gala Pla ESP	+410 s +816 s	Bike DNF	20:30	Show details Prediction details: Francisco Gala Pla Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +410 s Time: 24:05 Pace: 2:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +816 s Fehler: -405.9 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 20:30 (8:12 / km) Historical basis: 8:24 / km Best comparable pace: 5:20 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 13:57 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 24:05 (2:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 20:30 (8:12 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Greg Lebeter AUS	+406 s +901 s	Bike DNF		Show details Prediction details: Greg Lebeter Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +406 s Time: 24:01 Pace: 2:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +901 s Fehler: -495.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 16:28 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 24:01 (2:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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