Prediction comparison

Junior Women

23.08.2024 Townsville AUS

Race information and calculation basis

2024 World Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Townsville

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 23.08.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 10/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 20.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 40.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error6.0

Mean swim error117.3 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history4

					Details
0 / 1	Claire Spicknall AUS	+0 s +0 s	Bike DNF		Show details Prediction details: Claire Spicknall Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:33 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 9:02 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:33 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Kiara Mooney AUS	+34 s +4 s	Bike DNF	10:08	Show details Prediction details: Kiara Mooney Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +34 s Time: 13:07 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +4 s Fehler: 30.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.41 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 10:08 (4:03 / km) Historical basis: 4:02 / km Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 9:25 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 13:07 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 10:08 (4:03 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Gwen Watson AUS	+12 s +68 s	Bike DNF	9:30	Show details Prediction details: Gwen Watson Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +12 s Time: 12:45 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +68 s Fehler: -56.2 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 1.16 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 9:30 (3:48 / km) Historical basis: 3:53 / km Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 9:29 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:45 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 9:30 (3:48 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Abbey Hickey AUS	+76 s +131 s	Bike DNF	9:15	Show details Prediction details: Abbey Hickey Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +76 s Time: 13:49 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +131 s Fehler: -55.4 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.41 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 9:15 (3:42 / km) Historical basis: 3:41 / km Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 9:13 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 13:49 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 9:15 (3:42 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Ella Hardie AUS	+0 s +124 s	Bike DNF		Show details Prediction details: Ella Hardie Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:33 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +124 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 9:31 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:33 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Zali Bowden AUS	+0 s +96 s	Bike DNF		Show details Prediction details: Zali Bowden Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:33 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +96 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 10:06 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:33 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Deja Rochford AUS	+0 s +135 s	Bike DNF		Show details Prediction details: Deja Rochford Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:33 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +135 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 10:07 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:33 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Zoe Billings AUS	+0 s +170 s	Bike DNF		Show details Prediction details: Zoe Billings Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:33 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +170 s Fehler: -170.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 10:26 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 12:33 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Hannah Stevenson AUS	+0 s +176 s	Bike DNF	12:05	Show details Prediction details: Hannah Stevenson Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:33 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +176 s Fehler: -176.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 1.69 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 12:05 (4:50 / km) Historical basis: 4:51 / km Best comparable pace: 4:36 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 11:46 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:33 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 12:05 (4:50 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Madison Rae AUS	+0 s +216 s	Bike DNF		Show details Prediction details: Madison Rae Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:33 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +216 s Fehler: -216.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 11:31 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 12:33 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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