Prediction comparison

U23 Men

23.08.2024 Townsville AUS

Race information and calculation basis

2024 World Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Townsville

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 23.08.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 25/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 50.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 25.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.7

Mean swim error47.4 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history2

					Details
0 / 1	Joel Lange NZL	+34 s +4 s	Bike DNF	7:34	Show details Prediction details: Joel Lange Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +34 s Time: 12:41 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +4 s Fehler: 29.9 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 7:34 (3:02 / km) Historical basis: 3:04 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 7 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 7:34 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:41 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 7:34 (3:02 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Mitchell Van der Westhuizen RSA	+22 s +0 s	Bike DNF	8:36	Show details Prediction details: Mitchell Van der Westhuizen Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +22 s Time: 12:29 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 22.1 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 8:36 (3:26 / km) Historical basis: 3:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 7:55 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:29 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 8:36 (3:26 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Rohan Hickey AUS	+11 s +76 s	Bike DNF	8:33	Show details Prediction details: Rohan Hickey Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +11 s Time: 12:18 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +76 s Fehler: -65.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 8:33 (3:25 / km) Historical basis: 3:29 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:25 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:18 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 8:33 (3:25 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Johnathan Dolan USA	+0 s +42 s	Bike DNF		Show details Prediction details: Johnathan Dolan Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:07 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +42 s Fehler: -42.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 7:58 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 12:07 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Murray Colbridge AUS	+10 s +64 s	Bike DNF	8:51	Show details Prediction details: Murray Colbridge Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +10 s Time: 12:17 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +64 s Fehler: -53.8 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 8:51 (3:32 / km) Historical basis: 3:32 / km Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:39 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:17 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 8:51 (3:32 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Samuel McAuliffe AUS	+0 s +57 s	Bike DNF		Show details Prediction details: Samuel McAuliffe Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:07 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +57 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 8:06 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:07 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Rowan Kerr AUS	+141 s +212 s	Bike DNF	9:44	Show details Prediction details: Rowan Kerr Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +141 s Time: 14:28 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +212 s Fehler: -71.5 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 9:44 (3:53 / km) Historical basis: 3:53 / km Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 8:58 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 14:28 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 9:44 (3:53 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Chun Sheng Max Teo SGP	+0 s +198 s	Bike DNF		Show details Prediction details: Chun Sheng Max Teo Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:07 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +198 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 9:39 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:07 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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