Prediction comparison

45-49 Female AG

22.08.2024 Townsville AUS

Race information and calculation basis

2024 World Triathlon Cross Duathlon Championships Townsville

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 22.08.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 20/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 40.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 60.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.0

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

					Details
0 / 1	Karen Heppenstall GBR	+89 s	G0 / G2	34:31	Show details Prediction details: Karen Heppenstall Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +89 s Time: Pace: 1:53 / 100 m H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 34:31 (5:45 / km) Historical basis: 5:50 / km Best comparable pace: 4:22 / km Trend: −0:05 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 17 % Ergebnis Lauf: 31:46 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 34:31 (5:45 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Jayne Rutter AUS	+409 s	G0 / G1	41:00	Show details Prediction details: Jayne Rutter Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +409 s Time: Pace: 2:24 / 100 m H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 41:00 (6:50 / km) Historical basis: 6:51 / km Best comparable pace: 6:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 15 % Ergebnis Lauf: 34:56 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 41:00 (6:50 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Melanie Kelly AUS	+0 s	G0 / G3		Show details Prediction details: Melanie Kelly Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 32:10 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Josie Mulcahy AUS	+435 s	G0 / G4	40:09	Show details Prediction details: Josie Mulcahy Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +435 s Time: Pace: 2:27 / 100 m H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 40:09 (6:41 / km) Historical basis: 6:42 / km Best comparable pace: 5:59 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 17 % Ergebnis Lauf: 36:57 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 40:09 (6:41 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Helen Napier AUS	+0 s	G0 / G5		Show details Prediction details: Helen Napier Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 36:42 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

Placement

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Cycling

Running and total

Placement

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Placement

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Running and total

Placement

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Running and total