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40-44 Male AG

20.08.2024 Townsville AUS
Race information and calculation basis
2024 World Triathlon Cross Triathlon Championships Townsville

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 20.08.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 20/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 12.5 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error7.9
Mean swim error141.7 s
Correct bike groups0/11
No history5
Within the 80% range37.5 %
Details
1 / 2 Florian Labarriere
FRA
+181 s
+184 s
G1 / G2
 29:04
29:47
 1:04:48
Show details
Prediction details: Florian Labarriere

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +181 s
Time: 18:46
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +184 s
Fehler: -3.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 31.0 s
Gap behind: 19.0 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 29:04 (4:51 / km)
Historical basis: 4:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:47 (4:58 / km)
Error: −0:43 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:04:48
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 18:46 (1:53 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:00 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 29:04 (4:51 / km)
Total: 1:04:48
2 / 15 Takahiro Mishina
JPN
+387 s
+545 s
G2 / G15
 36:51
37:33
 1:26:24
Show details
Prediction details: Takahiro Mishina

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +387 s
Time: 22:12
Pace: 2:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +545 s
Fehler: -158.4 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 162.6 s
Gap behind: 281.4 s
Result: Group 15 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:51 (6:09 / km)
Historical basis: 6:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:33 (6:16 / km)
Error: −0:42 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 22:12 (2:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:57 (32.1 km/h)
Run: 36:51 (6:09 / km)
Total: 1:26:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:49
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
About 382.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 1 Samuel Parker
AUS
+0 s
+188 s
G0 / G1
29:00
Show details
Prediction details: Samuel Parker

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 12–12
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:45
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +188 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:00 (4:50 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 15:45 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 George Tamblyn
AUS
+200 s
+179 s
G1 / G4
28:19
Show details
Prediction details: George Tamblyn

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +200 s
Time: 19:05
Pace: 1:55 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +179 s
Fehler: 21.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 19.0 s
Gap behind: 24.0 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:19 (4:43 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 19:05 (1:55 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:00 (38.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 4 Damien Bulters
AUS
+0 s
+0 s
G1 / G5
29:10
Show details
Prediction details: Damien Bulters

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:45
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:10 (4:52 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 15:45 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:00 (38.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 5 Adam Chadburn
AUS
+123 s
+84 s
G1 / G3
32:16
Show details
Prediction details: Adam Chadburn

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +123 s
Time: 17:48
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +84 s
Fehler: 39.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 123.0 s
Gap behind: 27.0 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:16 (5:23 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:48 (1:47 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:00 (38.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 6 Caleb McInnes
AUS
+150 s
+146 s
G1 / G8
27:24
Show details
Prediction details: Caleb McInnes

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +150 s
Time: 18:15
Pace: 1:50 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +146 s
Fehler: 4.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 27.0 s
Gap behind: 31.0 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:24 (4:34 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:15 (1:50 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:00 (38.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 7 Mark Ewing
NZL
+0 s
+283 s
G0 / G7
30:40
Show details
Prediction details: Mark Ewing

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:45
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +283 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:40 (5:07 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 15:45 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Matthew Pooley
AUS
+0 s
+233 s
G1 / G6
31:48
Show details
Prediction details: Matthew Pooley

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:45
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +233 s
Fehler: -233.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 123.0 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:48 (5:18 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 15:45 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:00 (38.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 9 Ricardo Valverde
USA
+668 s
+280 s
G2 / G10
33:14
Show details
Prediction details: Ricardo Valverde

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +668 s
Time: 26:53
Pace: 2:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +280 s
Fehler: 388.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 281.4 s
Gap behind: 88.0 s
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:14 (5:32 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 26:53 (2:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:57 (32.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 21:18
Pace: 2:08 / 100 m
About 334.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +333.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 10 Gary Robertson
NZL
+0 s
+508 s
G0 / G11
34:51
Show details
Prediction details: Gary Robertson

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 14–14
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:45
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +508 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:51 (5:49 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 15:45 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Kephren Izzard
AUS
+756 s
+242 s
G2 / G12
33:23
Show details
Prediction details: Kephren Izzard

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +756 s
Time: 28:21
Pace: 2:50 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +242 s
Fehler: 514.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 88.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:23 (5:34 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 28:21 (2:50 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:57 (32.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 21:18
Pace: 2:08 / 100 m
About 422.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +333.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 12 Joshua Pain
AUS
+0 s
+76 s
G0 / G9
41:43
Show details
Prediction details: Joshua Pain

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 15–15
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:45
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +76 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:43 (6:57 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 15:45 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Damian Persen
AUS
+0 s
+187 s
G1 / G14
30:28
Show details
Prediction details: Damian Persen

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:45
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +187 s
Fehler: -187.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 14 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:28 (5:05 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 15:45 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:00 (38.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 14 Angelo Bonacci
AUS
+224 s
+235 s
G1 / G13
36:45
Show details
Prediction details: Angelo Bonacci

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +224 s
Time: 19:29
Pace: 1:57 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +235 s
Fehler: -11.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 24.0 s
Gap behind: 162.6 s
Result: Group 13 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:45 (6:08 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 19:29 (1:57 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:00 (38.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 16 Gregory Eakins
USA
+0 s
+1290 s
G0 / G16
41:23
Show details
Prediction details: Gregory Eakins

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 16–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:45
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1290 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 16 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:23 (6:54 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 15:45 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.