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Elite Women

09.11.2024 Brasilia BRA
Race information and calculation basis
2024 World Triathlon Cup Brasilia

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 09.11.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 66/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 92.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 92.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.5
Mean swim error13.5 s
Mean bike-speed error1.85 km/h
Correct bike groups10/25
No history0
Within the 80% range72.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 8 Vittoria Lopes
BRA
+1 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:33
19:03
 48:43
Show details
Prediction details: Vittoria Lopes

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–9
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +1 s
Time: 9:24
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 1.0 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.75 %, Sicherheit 57 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 8.2 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:33 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:03 (3:49 / km)
Error: −1:30 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 48:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:09 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 17:33 (3:31 / km)
Total: 48:43
2 / 1 Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal
MEX
+37 s
+24 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:18
17:41
 48:55
Show details
Prediction details: Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–8
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 10:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 12.6 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur -1.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:18 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Error: −1:23 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 48:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:51 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 16:18 (3:16 / km)
Total: 48:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 31.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 5 Verena Steinhauser
ITA
+45 s
+28 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:32
18:14
 49:09
Show details
Prediction details: Verena Steinhauser

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 4–14
Top-10 probability: 74 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 17.1 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 75 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:32 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 61 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:14 (3:39 / km)
Error: −1:42 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 49:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:51 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 16:32 (3:18 / km)
Total: 49:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 40.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 2 Sandra Dodet
FRA
+21 s
+31 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:38
17:49
 49:15
Show details
Prediction details: Sandra Dodet

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–9
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: -10.0 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.8 s
Gap behind: 7.9 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:49 (3:34 / km)
Error: −1:11 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 49:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:51 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Total: 49:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 16.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 12 Gina Sereno
USA
+29 s
+43 s
G2 / G3
 16:42
18:25
 49:19
Show details
Prediction details: Gina Sereno

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–13
Top-10 probability: 79 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:52
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: -14.0 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 4.1 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:42 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Error: −1:43 / −0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 49:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:52 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:51 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 16:42 (3:20 / km)
Total: 49:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 24.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 16 Eleanor Beveridge
USA
+42 s
+60 s
G2 / G5
 16:46
18:02
 49:23
Show details
Prediction details: Eleanor Beveridge

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–18
Top-10 probability: 65 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: -17.7 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 65 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:46 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 65 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Error: −1:16 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 49:23
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:51 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 16:46 (3:21 / km)
Total: 49:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 37.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 4 Summer Rappaport
USA
+9 s
+2 s
G2 / G1
 16:52
18:19
 49:29
Show details
Prediction details: Summer Rappaport

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 2–13
Top-10 probability: 85 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 7.2 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 96 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.2 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:52 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:19 (3:40 / km)
Error: −1:27 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 49:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:51 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 16:52 (3:22 / km)
Total: 49:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 4.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 7 Maria Carolina Velasquez Soto
COL
+38 s
+32 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:52
18:31
 49:29
Show details
Prediction details: Maria Carolina Velasquez Soto

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–14
Top-10 probability: 76 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 6.4 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:52 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 84 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:31 (3:42 / km)
Error: −1:39 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 49:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:51 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 16:52 (3:22 / km)
Total: 49:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 33.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 14 Ana Maria Valentina Torres Gomez
MEX
+35 s
+30 s
G2 / G3
 17:19
19:04
 49:56
Show details
Prediction details: Ana Maria Valentina Torres Gomez

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 8–16
Top-10 probability: 40 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 4.6 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.92 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 89 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:04 (3:49 / km)
Error: −1:45 / −0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 49:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:51 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Total: 49:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 29.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 17 Dominika Jamnicky
CAN
+33 s
+52 s
G2 / G4
 17:22
19:54
 49:59
Show details
Prediction details: Dominika Jamnicky

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 6–16
Top-10 probability: 49 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: -18.9 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.1 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:22 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 79 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:54 (3:59 / km)
Error: −2:32 / −0:30 / km
Overall prediction: 49:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:51 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 17:22 (3:28 / km)
Total: 49:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 28.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 9 Marcela Alvarez Solis
MEX
+29 s
+28 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:34
18:52
 50:11
Show details
Prediction details: Marcela Alvarez Solis

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 6–17
Top-10 probability: 36 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:52
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 0.9 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.9 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:52 (3:46 / km)
Error: −1:18 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 50:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:52 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:51 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Total: 50:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 24 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 15 María Casals Mojica
ESP
+46 s
+42 s
G2 / G4
 17:34
18:43
 50:11
Show details
Prediction details: María Casals Mojica

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 10–20
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 3.7 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 4.5 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:43 (3:45 / km)
Error: −1:09 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 50:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:51 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Total: 50:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 40.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 3 Tamara Gorman
USA
+13 s
+26 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:46
17:59
 50:23
Show details
Prediction details: Tamara Gorman

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 9–14
Top-10 probability: 25 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: -12.8 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 7.8 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:46 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 63 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 50:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:51 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 17:46 (3:33 / km)
Total: 50:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 8.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 10 Shanae Williams
RSA
+38 s
+28 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:50
19:37
 50:27
Show details
Prediction details: Shanae Williams

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 10–19
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 9.7 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 80 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 40 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:37 (3:55 / km)
Error: −1:47 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 50:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:51 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Total: 50:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 32.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 13 Luisa Daniela Baca Vargas
MEX
+40 s
+44 s
G2 / G4
 17:52
18:22
 50:29
Show details
Prediction details: Luisa Daniela Baca Vargas

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 12–19
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: -3.8 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 53 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -1.23 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:22 (3:40 / km)
Error: −0:30 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 50:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:51 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Total: 50:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 35.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 11 Mercedes Romero Orozco
MEX
+40 s
+32 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:15
20:07
 50:52
Show details
Prediction details: Mercedes Romero Orozco

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 11–20
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 7.7 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur -0.69 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:07 (4:01 / km)
Error: −1:52 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 50:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:51 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Total: 50:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 34.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 6 Sofia Rodriguez Moreno
MEX
+50 s
+31 s
G3 / G2
 17:11
18:17
 52:04
Show details
Prediction details: Sofia Rodriguez Moreno

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 8–19
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 10:13
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 19.4 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:11 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 99 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:17 (3:39 / km)
Error: −1:06 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 52:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:13 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:59 (35.3 km/h)
Run: 17:11 (3:26 / km)
Total: 52:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 45.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 18 Giovanna Lacerda
BRA
+50 s
+44 s
G3 / G4
 17:13
20:27
 52:06
Show details
Prediction details: Giovanna Lacerda

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 9–19
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 10:13
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: 6.2 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.5 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:13 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.92 %, Sicherheit 77 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:27 (4:05 / km)
Error: −3:14 / −0:39 / km
Overall prediction: 52:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:13 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:59 (35.3 km/h)
Run: 17:13 (3:27 / km)
Total: 52:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 45.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 20 Michelle Stratton
USA
+60 s
+52 s
G4 / G6
 18:40
20:30
 54:40
Show details
Prediction details: Michelle Stratton

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 18–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: 8.3 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 6.0 s
Result: Group 6 (6 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:40 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 86 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:30 (4:06 / km)
Error: −1:50 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 54:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:00 (34.3 km/h)
Run: 18:40 (3:44 / km)
Total: 54:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 55.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 19 Genesis Carolina Ruiz Volcan
VEN
+77 s
+75 s
G6 / G6
correct 		17:31
19:39
 54:41
Show details
Prediction details: Genesis Carolina Ruiz Volcan

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 16–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +77 s
Time: 10:40
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +75 s
Fehler: 2.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 87 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.7 s
Gap behind: 7.8 s
Result: Group 6 (6 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:31 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.78 %, Sicherheit 77 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:39 (3:56 / km)
Error: −2:08 / −0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 54:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:40 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:53 (33.4 km/h)
Run: 17:31 (3:30 / km)
Total: 54:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 72.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 25 Maria Clara Abreu Borges Cunha
BRA
+54 s
+89 s
G3 / G7
 20:39
24:16
 55:32
Show details
Prediction details: Maria Clara Abreu Borges Cunha

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 21–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +89 s
Fehler: -35.5 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 6.7 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:39 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:16 (4:51 / km)
Error: −3:37 / −0:43 / km
Overall prediction: 55:32
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:59 (35.3 km/h)
Run: 20:39 (4:08 / km)
Total: 55:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 48.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 23 Marion Kim Mangrobang
PHI
+66 s
+88 s
G5 / G6
 20:01
21:09
 56:16
Show details
Prediction details: Marion Kim Mangrobang

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 20–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +66 s
Time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +88 s
Fehler: -21.7 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.70 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.0 s
Gap behind: 10.7 s
Result: Group 6 (6 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:01 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.91 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:09 (4:14 / km)
Error: −1:08 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 56:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:29 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:09 (34.1 km/h)
Run: 20:01 (4:00 / km)
Total: 56:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 61.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 24 Lizeth Lopez Ortega
MEX
+85 s
+86 s
G7 / G6
 19:10
21:53
 56:27
Show details
Prediction details: Lizeth Lopez Ortega

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 21–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +85 s
Time: 10:48
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +86 s
Fehler: -1.2 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.8 s
Gap behind: 87.3 s
Result: Group 6 (6 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:10 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:53 (4:23 / km)
Error: −2:43 / −0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 56:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:48 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:25 (33.5 km/h)
Run: 19:10 (3:50 / km)
Total: 56:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 79.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 22 Gabriela Machado Penteado
BRA
+60 s
+73 s
G4 / G6
 22:03
21:00
 58:03
Show details
Prediction details: Gabriela Machado Penteado

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 23–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +73 s
Fehler: -12.8 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.7 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 6 (6 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:03 (4:25 / km)
Historical basis: 4:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:00 (4:12 / km)
Error: +1:03 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 58:03
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:00 (34.3 km/h)
Run: 22:03 (4:25 / km)
Total: 58:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 55.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 21 Sofia Gelati
BRA
+172 s
+89 s
G7 / G6
20:51
Show details
Prediction details: Sofia Gelati

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +172 s
Time: 12:15
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +89 s
Fehler: 83.1 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 87.3 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (6 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:51 (4:10 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 12:15 (1:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:25 (33.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 167 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.