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Elite Women

09.11.2024 Miyazaki JPN
Race information and calculation basis
2024 World Triathlon Cup Miyazaki

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 09.11.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 68/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 96.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.8
Mean swim error15.0 s
Mean bike-speed error1.34 km/h
Correct bike groups10/28
No history0
Within the 80% range67.9 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Gwen Jorgensen
USA
+22 s
+4 s
G2 / G1
 16:09
16:17
 48:28
Show details
Prediction details: Gwen Jorgensen

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 18.4 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:09 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 93 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:17 (3:15 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 48:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:48 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 16:09 (3:14 / km)
Total: 48:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 10.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 3 Jolien Vermeylen
BEL
+3 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:38
16:47
 48:40
Show details
Prediction details: Jolien Vermeylen

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 2.0 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 92 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 48:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:54 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Total: 48:40
3 / 4 Sian Rainsley
GBR
+6 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:08
16:50
 49:10
Show details
Prediction details: Sian Rainsley

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 4.1 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:08 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:50 (3:22 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 49:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:54 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 17:08 (3:26 / km)
Total: 49:10
4 / 17 Sophie Malowiecki
AUS
+18 s
+14 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:58
17:09
 49:17
Show details
Prediction details: Sophie Malowiecki

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–9
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 3.6 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.3 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:58 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:09 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 49:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:48 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 16:58 (3:24 / km)
Total: 49:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 5.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 18 Erin McConnell
IRL
+8 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:24
18:42
 49:26
Show details
Prediction details: Erin McConnell

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 7.1 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 64 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 5.2 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:24 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 1.62 %, Sicherheit 66 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:42 (3:44 / km)
Error: −1:18 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 49:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:54 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 17:24 (3:29 / km)
Total: 49:26
6 / 7 Erika Ackerlund
USA
+25 s
+1 s
G2 / G1
 17:09
17:16
 49:28
Show details
Prediction details: Erika Ackerlund

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–13
Top-10 probability: 70 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 9:57
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 23.7 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:09 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 49:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:48 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 17:09 (3:26 / km)
Total: 49:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 12.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 5 Yuko Takahashi
JPN
+30 s
+2 s
G2 / G1
 17:10
16:53
 49:29
Show details
Prediction details: Yuko Takahashi

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–17
Top-10 probability: 56 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 27.6 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 114 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 98 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:53 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 49:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:48 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Total: 49:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 17.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 11 Sara Guerrero Manso
ESP
+23 s
+5 s
G2 / G1
 17:12
17:37
 49:31
Show details
Prediction details: Sara Guerrero Manso

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 4–14
Top-10 probability: 76 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:55
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 17.7 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur -0.87 %, Sicherheit 91 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 68 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:37 (3:31 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 49:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:48 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Total: 49:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 10.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 14 Hollie Elliott
IRL
+18 s
+7 s
G2 / G1
 17:22
17:54
 49:41
Show details
Prediction details: Hollie Elliott

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 4–15
Top-10 probability: 60 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 11.1 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 98 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:22 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 85 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:54 (3:35 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 49:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:48 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 17:22 (3:28 / km)
Total: 49:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 6.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 13 Emma Jeffcoat
AUS
+3 s
+6 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:44
17:52
 49:46
Show details
Prediction details: Emma Jeffcoat

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 5–16
Top-10 probability: 61 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: -2.9 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 85 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:44 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 49:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:54 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 17:44 (3:33 / km)
Total: 49:46
11 / 2 Alissa Konig
SUI
+34 s
+2 s
G3 / G1
 16:58
16:31
 49:58
Show details
Prediction details: Alissa Konig

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 1–22
Top-10 probability: 51 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 32.1 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:58 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:31 (3:18 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 49:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:20 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 16:58 (3:24 / km)
Total: 49:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 22.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 19 Michelle Magnani
USA
+29 s
+10 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:50
17:45
 50:09
Show details
Prediction details: Michelle Magnani

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 7–22
Top-10 probability: 28 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 19.3 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 82 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.75 %, Sicherheit 78 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:45 (3:33 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 50:09
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:48 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Total: 50:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 17.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 12 Márta Kropkó
HUN
+4 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:11
17:47
 50:13
Show details
Prediction details: Márta Kropkó

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 10–15
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +4 s
Time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 4.2 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:11 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 94 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:47 (3:33 / km)
Error: +0:24 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 50:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:54 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 18:11 (3:38 / km)
Total: 50:13
14 / 16 Katie Rodda
GBR
+18 s
+9 s
G2 / G1
 17:57
18:16
 50:16
Show details
Prediction details: Katie Rodda

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 9–19
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 9.4 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 16 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:16 (3:39 / km)
Error: −0:19 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 50:16
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:48 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Total: 50:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 6.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 10 Manami Hayashi
JPN
+20 s
+9 s
G2 / G1
 17:58
17:33
 50:17
Show details
Prediction details: Manami Hayashi

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 10–21
Top-10 probability: 20 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:52
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 11.1 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:58 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:33 (3:31 / km)
Error: +0:25 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 50:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:52 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:48 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 17:58 (3:36 / km)
Total: 50:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 8.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 6 Jessica Fullagar
GBR
+20 s
+2 s
G2 / G1
 18:04
17:04
 50:23
Show details
Prediction details: Jessica Fullagar

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 11–20
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:52
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 18.1 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:04 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:04 (3:25 / km)
Error: +1:00 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 50:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:52 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:48 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 18:04 (3:37 / km)
Total: 50:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 8.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 9 Madalena Amaral Almeida
POR
+36 s
+11 s
G3 / G1
 17:36
17:34
 50:36
Show details
Prediction details: Madalena Amaral Almeida

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 10–25
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 25.4 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:36 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 50:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:20 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 17:36 (3:31 / km)
Total: 50:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 24.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 24 Charlotte Derbyshire
AUS
+32 s
+11 s
G3 / G2
 17:37
18:50
 50:37
Show details
Prediction details: Charlotte Derbyshire

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 8–21
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 21.3 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:37 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:50 (3:46 / km)
Error: −1:13 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 50:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:20 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 17:37 (3:31 / km)
Total: 50:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 20.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 28 Juri Ide
JPN
+31 s
+17 s
G2 / G4
 18:18
19:31
 50:37
Show details
Prediction details: Juri Ide

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 16–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 13.5 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 31.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:18 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur 1.02 %, Sicherheit 99 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:31 (3:54 / km)
Error: −1:13 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 50:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:48 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 18:18 (3:40 / km)
Total: 50:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 18.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 22 Yoshiko Sato
JPN
+28 s
+10 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:45
18:18
 51:04
Show details
Prediction details: Yoshiko Sato

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 18–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 10:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 17.8 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:45 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 91 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:18 (3:40 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 51:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:48 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 18:45 (3:45 / km)
Total: 51:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 15.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 21 Lara Thekla Ungewickell
GER
+34 s
+29 s
G3 / G2
 18:07
18:17
 51:07
Show details
Prediction details: Lara Thekla Ungewickell

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 11–25
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 4.9 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:07 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:17 (3:39 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 51:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:20 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 18:07 (3:37 / km)
Total: 51:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 21.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 20 Hye Rim Jeong
KOR
+39 s
+26 s
G3 / G2
 18:20
17:50
 51:20
Show details
Prediction details: Hye Rim Jeong

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 13–25
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 13.3 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:20 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 99 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 51:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:11 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:20 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 18:20 (3:40 / km)
Total: 51:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 27.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 8 Beatrice Mallozzi
ITA
+46 s
+12 s
G4 / G1
 17:22
17:25
 51:47
Show details
Prediction details: Beatrice Mallozzi

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 11–22
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 33.5 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 86 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 5.6 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:22 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 70 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:25 (3:29 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 51:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:40 (35.7 km/h)
Run: 17:22 (3:28 / km)
Total: 51:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 33.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 15 Sarika Nakayama
JPN
+40 s
+6 s
G3 / G1
 19:06
17:58
 52:06
Show details
Prediction details: Sarika Nakayama

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 20–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 33.6 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 133 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 4.5 s
Result: Group 1 (17 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:06 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur -0.82 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:58 (3:36 / km)
Error: +1:08 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 52:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:12 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:20 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 19:06 (3:49 / km)
Total: 52:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 27.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 26 Minori Ikeno
JPN
+13 s
+7 s
G2 / G2
correct 		19:50
20:10
 52:09
Show details
Prediction details: Minori Ikeno

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 18–27
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 6.3 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 118 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.2 s
Gap behind: 4.3 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:50 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 109 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:10 (4:02 / km)
Error: −0:20 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 52:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:48 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 19:50 (3:58 / km)
Total: 52:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 1.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 23 Ji Yeon Kim
KOR
+22 s
+23 s
G2 / G2
correct 		20:11
18:54
 52:30
Show details
Prediction details: Ji Yeon Kim

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 24–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: -0.7 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:11 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur -0.59 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:54 (3:47 / km)
Error: +1:17 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 52:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:48 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 20:11 (4:02 / km)
Total: 52:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 10.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 25 Hiraku Fukuoka
JPN
+44 s
+23 s
G4 / G2
 18:45
19:16
 53:10
Show details
Prediction details: Hiraku Fukuoka

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 22–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 21.1 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 141 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.5 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:45 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 146 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:16 (3:51 / km)
Error: −0:31 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 53:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:40 (35.7 km/h)
Run: 18:45 (3:45 / km)
Total: 53:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 32.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 27 Yan Yin Hilda Choi
HKG
+51 s
+36 s
G5 / G3
 19:05
19:21
 54:07
Show details
Prediction details: Yan Yin Hilda Choi

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 25–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 15.1 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.6 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:05 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 98 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:21 (3:52 / km)
Error: −0:16 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 54:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:11 (35.1 km/h)
Run: 19:05 (3:49 / km)
Total: 54:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 39.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.