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Elite Women

24.02.2024 Napier NZL
Race information and calculation basis
2024 World Triathlon Cup Napier

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 24.02.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 69/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 97.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error7.6
Mean swim error11.2 s
Mean bike-speed error1.74 km/h
Correct bike groups25/38
No history0
Within the 80% range68.4 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 3 Olivia Mathias
GBR
+14 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:01
16:46
 48:07
Show details
Prediction details: Olivia Mathias

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–7
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 10.5 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 3.8 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:01 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 94 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:46 (3:21 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 48:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 17:01 (3:24 / km)
Total: 48:07
2 / 24 Maria Carolina Velasquez Soto
COL
+40 s
+44 s
G2 / G3
 16:57
16:35
 48:15
Show details
Prediction details: Maria Carolina Velasquez Soto

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 4–19
Top-10 probability: 49 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: -4.4 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:57 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 94 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:35 (3:19 / km)
Error: +0:22 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 48:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:41 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:38 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 16:57 (3:23 / km)
Total: 48:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 13.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 31 Natalie Van Coevorden
AUS
+32 s
+31 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:58
18:48
 48:16
Show details
Prediction details: Natalie Van Coevorden

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–15
Top-10 probability: 80 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -28

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 0.6 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:58 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Error: −1:50 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 48:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:38 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 16:58 (3:24 / km)
Total: 48:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 5.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 10 Jolanda Annen
SUI
+7 s
+28 s
G1 / G2
 17:13
16:32
 48:19
Show details
Prediction details: Jolanda Annen

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–8
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: -21.0 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 1.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 5.9 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:13 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 98 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:32 (3:18 / km)
Error: +0:41 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 48:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 17:13 (3:27 / km)
Total: 48:19
5 / 12 Erica Hawley
BER
+40 s
+29 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:09
16:45
 48:27
Show details
Prediction details: Erica Hawley

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–24
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 11.1 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 95 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:09 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:45 (3:21 / km)
Error: +0:24 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 48:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:41 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:38 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 17:09 (3:26 / km)
Total: 48:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 13.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 19 Cecilia Santamaria Surroca
ESP
+33 s
+11 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:10
17:15
 48:28
Show details
Prediction details: Cecilia Santamaria Surroca

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–17
Top-10 probability: 50 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:34
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 21.7 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur -0.90 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:15 (3:27 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 48:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:34 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:38 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Total: 48:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 6.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 8 Ainsley Thorpe
NZL
+31 s
+25 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:15
16:32
 48:33
Show details
Prediction details: Ainsley Thorpe

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 1–20
Top-10 probability: 53 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 6.0 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 139 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:15 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:32 (3:18 / km)
Error: +0:43 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 48:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:38 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 17:15 (3:27 / km)
Total: 48:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 4.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 35 Niina Kishimoto
JPN
+27 s
+16 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:16
19:45
 48:34
Show details
Prediction details: Niina Kishimoto

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 4–16
Top-10 probability: 59 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -27

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 11.1 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.5 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 84 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:45 (3:57 / km)
Error: −2:29 / −0:30 / km
Overall prediction: 48:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:38 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Total: 48:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 0.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 4 Melanie Santos
POR
+30 s
+9 s
G2 / G1
 17:16
17:04
 48:34
Show details
Prediction details: Melanie Santos

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 3–20
Top-10 probability: 45 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 21.4 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:04 (3:25 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 48:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:38 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Total: 48:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 3.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 22 Zuzana Michalickova
SVK
+40 s
+34 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:16
17:41
 48:34
Show details
Prediction details: Zuzana Michalickova

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 9–22
Top-10 probability: 20 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: 6.4 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 160 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 124 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 48:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:41 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:38 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Total: 48:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 13.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 5 Zsanett Kuttor-Bragmayer
HUN
+17 s
+5 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:30
17:19
 48:36
Show details
Prediction details: Zsanett Kuttor-Bragmayer

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 4–14
Top-10 probability: 75 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 9:18
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 12.3 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 129 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 112 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Error: +0:11 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 48:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Total: 48:36
12 / 6 Ilaria Zane
ITA
+34 s
+25 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:19
16:23
 48:37
Show details
Prediction details: Ilaria Zane

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 3–23
Top-10 probability: 41 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 8.8 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 136 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:23 (3:17 / km)
Error: +0:56 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 48:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:38 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Total: 48:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 7.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 1 Sophie Linn
AUS
+19 s
+12 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:36
16:36
 48:42
Show details
Prediction details: Sophie Linn

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 1–26
Top-10 probability: 51 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 7.4 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 93 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:36 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:36 (3:19 / km)
Error: +1:00 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 48:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:20 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 17:36 (3:31 / km)
Total: 48:42
14 / 9 Olivia Thornbury
NZL
+33 s
+27 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:28
16:29
 48:46
Show details
Prediction details: Olivia Thornbury

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 3–25
Top-10 probability: 40 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:34
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 5.6 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 82 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:28 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:29 (3:18 / km)
Error: +0:59 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 48:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:34 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:38 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 17:28 (3:30 / km)
Total: 48:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 6.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 16 Maria Tomé
POR
+34 s
+14 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:34
17:02
 48:52
Show details
Prediction details: Maria Tomé

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 10–25
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 19.8 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Error: +0:32 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 48:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:38 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Total: 48:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 7.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 2 Sophie Alden
GBR
+13 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:57
16:45
 49:03
Show details
Prediction details: Sophie Alden

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 6–24
Top-10 probability: 31 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 12.9 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 74 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 85 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.9 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 64 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:45 (3:21 / km)
Error: +1:12 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 49:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Total: 49:03
17 / 18 Desirae Ridenour
CAN
+22 s
+17 s
G1 / G2
 17:57
17:14
 49:03
Show details
Prediction details: Desirae Ridenour

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 11–24
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 4.8 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 86 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:14 (3:27 / km)
Error: +0:43 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 49:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Total: 49:03
18 / 21 Yifan Yang
CHN
+23 s
+17 s
G1 / G2
 17:57
17:22
 49:03
Show details
Prediction details: Yifan Yang

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 1–37
Top-10 probability: 29 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:24
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 5.6 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 86 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 4.5 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:22 (3:28 / km)
Error: +0:35 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 49:03
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Total: 49:03
19 / 14 Emma Jeffcoat
AUS
+5 s
+4 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:08
17:50
 49:14
Show details
Prediction details: Emma Jeffcoat

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 8–26
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +5 s
Time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 0.6 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur 0.56 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 49:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Total: 49:14
20 / 7 Gina Sereno
USA
+45 s
+35 s
G3 / G2
 17:02
16:22
 49:21
Show details
Prediction details: Gina Sereno

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 5–33
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 9:46
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 10.1 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 104 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 95 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:22 (3:16 / km)
Error: +0:40 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 49:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:23 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Total: 49:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 18.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 20 Yuka Sato
JPN
+28 s
+18 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:05
17:26
 49:23
Show details
Prediction details: Yuka Sato

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 13–29
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 10.4 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:05 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Error: +0:39 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 49:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:29 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:38 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 18:05 (3:37 / km)
Total: 49:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 1.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 13 Elizabeth Bravo
ECU
+43 s
+21 s
G3 / G2
 17:06
16:42
 49:25
Show details
Prediction details: Elizabeth Bravo

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 3–29
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 21.6 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:06 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 87 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:42 (3:20 / km)
Error: +0:24 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 49:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:23 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 17:06 (3:25 / km)
Total: 49:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 16.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 17 Brea Roderick
NZL
+29 s
+30 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:10
17:10
 49:28
Show details
Prediction details: Brea Roderick

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 14–31
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:30
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: -0.9 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:10 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Error: +1:00 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 49:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:38 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 18:10 (3:38 / km)
Total: 49:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 2.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 30 Zsófia Kovács
HUN
+44 s
+34 s
G3 / G3
correct 		17:17
17:24
 49:36
Show details
Prediction details: Zsófia Kovács

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 7–31
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: 9.6 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:17 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 104 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:24 (3:29 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 49:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:23 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 17:17 (3:27 / km)
Total: 49:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 17.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 11 Paulina Klimas
POL
+46 s
+10 s
G3 / G1
 17:30
17:31
 49:49
Show details
Prediction details: Paulina Klimas

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 16–28
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 9:47
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 36.4 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:31 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 49:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:23 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Total: 49:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 19.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 25 Valerie Barthelemy
BEL
+29 s
+16 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:35
17:58
 49:53
Show details
Prediction details: Valerie Barthelemy

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 21–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:30
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 12.5 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 92 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:35 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur -0.81 %, Sicherheit 87 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:58 (3:36 / km)
Error: +0:37 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 49:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:38 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 18:35 (3:43 / km)
Total: 49:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 27 Iratxe Arenal Arribas
ESP
+35 s
+33 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:38
18:08
 49:56
Show details
Prediction details: Iratxe Arenal Arribas

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 25–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 2.1 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 37 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 3.8 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:38 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 49:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:38 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 18:38 (3:44 / km)
Total: 49:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 8.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 32 Beatrice Mallozzi
ITA
+53 s
+47 s
G3 / G3
correct 		17:45
17:46
 50:04
Show details
Prediction details: Beatrice Mallozzi

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 19–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 5.9 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:45 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:46 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 50:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:23 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 17:45 (3:33 / km)
Total: 50:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 26.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 28 Ellie Hoitink
AUS
+56 s
+48 s
G3 / G3
correct 		17:52
17:02
 50:11
Show details
Prediction details: Ellie Hoitink

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 13–37
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 28
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 9:57
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: 7.7 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 4.9 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Error: +0:50 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 50:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:23 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Total: 50:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 29.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 34 Rebecca Beti
SUI
+53 s
+50 s
G3 / G3
correct 		17:53
18:21
 50:12
Show details
Prediction details: Rebecca Beti

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 17–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: 3.3 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 64 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:53 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 55 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:21 (3:40 / km)
Error: −0:28 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 50:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:23 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 17:53 (3:35 / km)
Total: 50:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 26.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 37 Manami Iijima
GUM
+45 s
+50 s
G3 / G4
 18:15
17:57
 50:34
Show details
Prediction details: Manami Iijima

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 21–37
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 37
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 9:46
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: -5.2 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 50:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:23 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Total: 50:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 18.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 23 Eva Goodisson
NZL
+29 s
+8 s
G2 / G1
 19:20
18:48
 50:38
Show details
Prediction details: Eva Goodisson

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 27–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:30
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 20.6 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 102 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:20 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur -0.76 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Error: +0:32 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 50:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:38 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 19:20 (3:52 / km)
Total: 50:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 2.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 15 Siyi Zhang
CHN
+51 s
+31 s
G3 / G2
 18:26
16:48
 50:45
Show details
Prediction details: Siyi Zhang

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 27–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 9:52
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 20.1 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.5 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:26 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 1.43 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:48 (3:22 / km)
Error: +1:38 / +0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 50:45
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:52 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:23 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 18:26 (3:41 / km)
Total: 50:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 24.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 36 Olivia Cummings
NZL
+43 s
+51 s
G3 / G3
correct 		18:27
18:30
 50:46
Show details
Prediction details: Olivia Cummings

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 25–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: -7.9 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:27 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:30 (3:42 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 50:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:23 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 18:27 (3:41 / km)
Total: 50:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 16.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 33 Hanne De Vet
BEL
+43 s
+50 s
G3 / G3
correct 		18:42
17:57
 51:01
Show details
Prediction details: Hanne De Vet

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 26–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: -7.4 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:42 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Error: +0:45 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 51:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:23 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 18:42 (3:44 / km)
Total: 51:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 16.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 26 Sarah McClure
NZL
+39 s
+31 s
G2 / G2
correct 		19:53
18:01
 51:11
Show details
Prediction details: Sarah McClure

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 32–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 7.9 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:53 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.75 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Error: +1:52 / +0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 51:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:38 (39.2 km/h)
Run: 19:53 (3:59 / km)
Total: 51:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 12.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 29 Hannah Howell
NZL
+47 s
+17 s
G3 / G2
 18:57
18:35
 51:16
Show details
Prediction details: Hannah Howell

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 32–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 9:48
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 29.6 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 4.5 s
Result: Group 2 (21 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:57 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:35 (3:43 / km)
Error: +0:22 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 51:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:23 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 18:57 (3:47 / km)
Total: 51:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 20.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 38 Natalia Casas
MEX
+61 s
+75 s
G4 / G5
 17:12
18:27
 51:40
Show details
Prediction details: Natalia Casas

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 15–38
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 38
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +75 s
Fehler: -14.4 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.9 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:27 (3:41 / km)
Error: −1:15 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 51:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:27 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Total: 51:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 34.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.