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Elite Men

05.10.2024 Rome ITA
Race information and calculation basis
2024 World Triathlon Cup Rome

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 05.10.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 63/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 86.8 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error9.6
Mean swim error10.8 s
Mean bike-speed error6.48 km/h
Correct bike groups19/53
No history0
Within the 80% range60.4 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Luke Willian
AUS
+18 s
+21 s
G2 / G1
 14:26
14:24
 41:20
Show details
Prediction details: Luke Willian

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–8
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: -3.0 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 131 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:26 (2:53 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 131 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:24 (2:53 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 41:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.1 km/h)
Run: 14:26 (2:53 / km)
Total: 41:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 12.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 10 Callum McClusky
AUS
+28 s
+41 s
G3 / G3
correct 		14:38
14:18
 41:40
Show details
Prediction details: Callum McClusky

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–13
Top-10 probability: 81 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: -13.3 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 134 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:38 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 123 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:18 (2:52 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 41:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:30 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 14:38 (2:56 / km)
Total: 41:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 7.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 34 Mitch Kolkman
NED
+11 s
+17 s
G2 / G4
 14:54
15:04
 41:48
Show details
Prediction details: Mitch Kolkman

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–12
Top-10 probability: 80 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -31

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: -5.8 s
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 124 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 79 %
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 4 (11 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:54 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 124 Duelle, Korrektur 0.62 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:04 (3:01 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 41:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:54 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.1 km/h)
Run: 14:54 (2:59 / km)
Total: 41:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 5.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 8 Valentin Morlec
FRA
+2 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:00
14:50
 41:53
Show details
Prediction details: Valentin Morlec

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–16
Top-10 probability: 64 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +2 s
Time: 8:45
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: -6.3 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 148 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 4.5 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:00 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 137 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:50 (2:58 / km)
Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 41:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:45 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:51 (44.7 km/h)
Run: 15:00 (3:00 / km)
Total: 41:53
5 / 4 Henry Graf
GER
+12 s
+13 s
G2 / G1
 15:00
14:42
 41:54
Show details
Prediction details: Henry Graf

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–14
Top-10 probability: 69 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: -1.0 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:00 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:42 (2:56 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 41:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.1 km/h)
Run: 15:00 (3:00 / km)
Total: 41:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 6.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 5 Tayler Reid
NZL
+9 s
+15 s
G2 / G1
 15:01
14:42
 41:55
Show details
Prediction details: Tayler Reid

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–14
Top-10 probability: 70 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: -5.9 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:01 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:42 (2:56 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 41:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:52 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.1 km/h)
Run: 15:01 (3:00 / km)
Total: 41:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 3.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 9 Euan De Nigro
ITA
+19 s
+26 s
G2 / G1
 15:02
14:55
 41:56
Show details
Prediction details: Euan De Nigro

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–19
Top-10 probability: 45 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: -7.2 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:02 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:55 (2:59 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 41:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.1 km/h)
Run: 15:02 (3:00 / km)
Total: 41:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 13.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 28 Nathan Grayel
FRA
+41 s
+32 s
G4 / G3
 14:18
15:31
 41:58
Show details
Prediction details: Nathan Grayel

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 2–21
Top-10 probability: 54 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 9:24
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 9.3 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:18 (2:52 / km)
Historical basis: 2:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur 0.82 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:31 (3:06 / km)
Error: −1:13 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 41:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:52 (44.7 km/h)
Run: 14:18 (2:52 / km)
Total: 41:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 35.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 14 Pietro Giovannini
ITA
+7 s
+4 s
G2 / G1
 15:06
15:17
 42:00
Show details
Prediction details: Pietro Giovannini

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 4–16
Top-10 probability: 61 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 8:50
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 2.9 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 91 %
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:06 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:17 (3:03 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 42:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:50 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.1 km/h)
Run: 15:06 (3:01 / km)
Total: 42:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 1.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 1 Yanis Seguin
FRA
+23 s
+31 s
G3 / G1
 14:59
14:23
 42:01
Show details
Prediction details: Yanis Seguin

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 5–19
Top-10 probability: 50 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: -7.9 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:59 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:23 (2:53 / km)
Error: +0:36 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 42:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:30 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 14:59 (3:00 / km)
Total: 42:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 6 Genis Grau
ESP
+31 s
+17 s
G3 / G2
 15:02
14:43
 42:04
Show details
Prediction details: Genis Grau

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 8–32
Top-10 probability: 19 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 13.6 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 147 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:02 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 136 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:43 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 42:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:30 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 15:02 (3:00 / km)
Total: 42:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 10.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 41 Ka'eo Kruse
USA
+19 s
+53 s
G2 / G6
 15:11
14:37
 42:05
Show details
Prediction details: Ka'eo Kruse

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 2–38
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 41
Deviation: -29

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +53 s
Fehler: -34.5 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:11 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:37 (2:55 / km)
Error: +0:34 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 42:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.1 km/h)
Run: 15:11 (3:02 / km)
Total: 42:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 12.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 12 Michał Oliwa
POL
+16 s
+19 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:12
15:05
 42:06
Show details
Prediction details: Michał Oliwa

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 8–28
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: -2.7 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 126 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:12 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 114 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:05 (3:01 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 42:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:59 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.1 km/h)
Run: 15:12 (3:02 / km)
Total: 42:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 10.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 7 Simon Westermann
SUI
+13 s
+24 s
G2 / G1
 15:13
14:46
 42:07
Show details
Prediction details: Simon Westermann

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 3–22
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -10.7 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 159 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:13 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 153 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:46 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 42:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:56 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.1 km/h)
Run: 15:13 (3:03 / km)
Total: 42:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 7.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 18 Nicola Azzano
ITA
+15 s
+13 s
G2 / G3
 15:14
14:47
 42:08
Show details
Prediction details: Nicola Azzano

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 4–28
Top-10 probability: 34 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 8:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 1.8 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 193 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:14 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 182 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:47 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 42:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.1 km/h)
Run: 15:14 (3:03 / km)
Total: 42:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 9.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 11 Valentin Wernz
GER
+25 s
+22 s
G3 / G2
 15:07
14:58
 42:09
Show details
Prediction details: Valentin Wernz

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 7–26
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 3.1 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 161 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:07 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 148 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:58 (3:00 / km)
Error: +0:09 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 42:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:30 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 15:07 (3:01 / km)
Total: 42:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 35 Sergiy Polikarpenko
ITA
+31 s
+46 s
G3 / G4
 15:07
15:08
 42:09
Show details
Prediction details: Sergiy Polikarpenko

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 8–39
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: -15.3 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 4 (11 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:07 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:08 (3:02 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 42:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:30 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 15:07 (3:01 / km)
Total: 42:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 25.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 48 Louis Vitiello
FRA
+26 s
+34 s
G3 / G5
 15:11
16:00
 42:13
Show details
Prediction details: Louis Vitiello

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 10–25
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 48
Deviation: -30

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: -8.0 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:11 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:00 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:49 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 42:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:30 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 15:11 (3:02 / km)
Total: 42:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 5.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 17 Maxime Fluri
SUI
+27 s
+41 s
G3 / G3
correct 		15:13
14:43
 42:15
Show details
Prediction details: Maxime Fluri

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 3–34
Top-10 probability: 30 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: -14.5 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 146 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:13 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 135 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:43 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 42:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:30 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 15:13 (3:03 / km)
Total: 42:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 6.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 29 Zsombor Dévay
HUN
+32 s
+37 s
G3 / G3
correct 		15:17
15:31
 42:19
Show details
Prediction details: Zsombor Dévay

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 13–36
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: -5.3 s
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 141 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:17 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 129 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:31 (3:06 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 42:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:30 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 15:17 (3:03 / km)
Total: 42:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 11.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 25 Shachar Sagiv
ISR
+26 s
+35 s
G3 / G3
correct 		15:18
15:18
 42:20
Show details
Prediction details: Shachar Sagiv

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 14–31
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -9.2 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 118 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:18 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur -0.67 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:18 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:00 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 42:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:30 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 15:18 (3:04 / km)
Total: 42:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 5.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 15 Kevin Tarek Viñuela Gonzalez
ESP
+12 s
+11 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:29
15:15
 42:23
Show details
Prediction details: Kevin Tarek Viñuela Gonzalez

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 16–26
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 1.3 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 115 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:15 (3:03 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 42:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.1 km/h)
Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Total: 42:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 6.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 37 Lukas Pertl
AUT
+39 s
+57 s
G4 / G4
correct 		14:47
15:21
 42:27
Show details
Prediction details: Lukas Pertl

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 7–31
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 37
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:22
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: -17.8 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 121 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 4 (11 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:47 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 114 Duelle, Korrektur 0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Error: −0:34 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 42:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:52 (44.7 km/h)
Run: 14:47 (2:57 / km)
Total: 42:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 33.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 19 Paul Georgenthum
FRA
+19 s
+18 s
G2 / G3
 15:35
14:48
 42:29
Show details
Prediction details: Paul Georgenthum

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 19–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 1.4 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 156 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:35 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 142 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:48 (2:58 / km)
Error: +0:47 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 42:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.1 km/h)
Run: 15:35 (3:07 / km)
Total: 42:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 13.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 13 Jimmy Lund
GBR
+7 s
+17 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:38
15:09
 42:32
Show details
Prediction details: Jimmy Lund

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 10–29
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 8:50
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: -10.5 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:38 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:09 (3:02 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 42:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:50 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.1 km/h)
Run: 15:38 (3:08 / km)
Total: 42:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 0.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 33 Ian Pennekamp
NED
+19 s
+50 s
G2 / G4
 15:38
14:59
 42:32
Show details
Prediction details: Ian Pennekamp

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 18–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: -31.0 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 4 (11 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:38 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:59 (3:00 / km)
Error: +0:39 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 42:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.1 km/h)
Run: 15:38 (3:08 / km)
Total: 42:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 13.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 30 Gjalt Panjer
NED
+20 s
+51 s
G3 / G3
correct 		15:38
15:37
 42:40
Show details
Prediction details: Gjalt Panjer

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 19–40
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: -30.7 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:38 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:37 (3:07 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 42:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:30 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 15:38 (3:08 / km)
Total: 42:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 14.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 22 Aurelien Jem
FRA
+29 s
+38 s
G3 / G3
correct 		15:38
15:01
 42:40
Show details
Prediction details: Aurelien Jem

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 18–44
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: -8.9 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:38 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:01 (3:00 / km)
Error: +0:37 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 42:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:30 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 15:38 (3:08 / km)
Total: 42:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 23.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 44 Blake Harris
CAN
+33 s
+47 s
G3 / G4
 15:42
16:08
 42:44
Show details
Prediction details: Blake Harris

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 18–48
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 44
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: -14.5 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 85 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 4 (11 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:42 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 56 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:08 (3:14 / km)
Error: −0:26 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 42:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:30 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 15:42 (3:08 / km)
Total: 42:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 12.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 27 Kyotaro Yoshikawa
JPN
+8 s
+8 s
G2 / G1
 15:52
16:04
 42:46
Show details
Prediction details: Kyotaro Yoshikawa

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 15–40
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 27
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 8:51
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: -0.4 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 138 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:52 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 137 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:04 (3:13 / km)
Error: −0:12 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 42:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:51 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.1 km/h)
Run: 15:52 (3:10 / km)
Total: 42:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 16 Jan Diener
GER
+18 s
+24 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:52
15:18
 42:46
Show details
Prediction details: Jan Diener

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 24–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -6.3 s
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:52 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 120 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:18 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:34 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 42:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.1 km/h)
Run: 15:52 (3:10 / km)
Total: 42:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 12.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 32 Tomas Zikmund
CZE
+22 s
+25 s
G3 / G3
correct 		15:48
15:40
 42:50
Show details
Prediction details: Tomas Zikmund

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 25–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: -2.6 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 142 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 135 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:40 (3:08 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 42:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:30 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km)
Total: 42:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 16.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 40 Peter Rojtas
SVK
+18 s
+28 s
G2 / G3
 16:03
16:34
 42:57
Show details
Prediction details: Peter Rojtas

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 27–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 40
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: -10.3 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 102 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:03 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 102 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:34 (3:19 / km)
Error: −0:31 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 42:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.1 km/h)
Run: 16:03 (3:13 / km)
Total: 42:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 12.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 36 Pavlos Antoniades
CAN
+40 s
+51 s
G4 / G4
correct 		15:23
15:11
 43:03
Show details
Prediction details: Pavlos Antoniades

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 11–46
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: -10.8 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 4 (11 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:23 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:11 (3:02 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 43:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:52 (44.7 km/h)
Run: 15:23 (3:05 / km)
Total: 43:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 20.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 50 Marcus Dey
GBR
+1 s
+2 s
G1 / G7
 16:10
15:44
 43:03
Show details
Prediction details: Marcus Dey

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 28–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 50
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +1 s
Time: 8:44
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: -1.0 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 7 (3 people)
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 9.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:10 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:44 (3:09 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 43:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:44 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:51 (44.7 km/h)
Run: 16:10 (3:14 / km)
Total: 43:03
36 / 45 Julian Birkel
RSA
+32 s
+55 s
G3 / G5
 16:02
15:32
 43:04
Show details
Prediction details: Julian Birkel

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 28–45
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 45
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: -23.4 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:02 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:32 (3:06 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:04
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:30 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 16:02 (3:12 / km)
Total: 43:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 11.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 21 Nicholas Holmes
USA
+48 s
+55 s
G4 / G3
 15:28
14:54
 43:08
Show details
Prediction details: Nicholas Holmes

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 31–44
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: -7.0 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 109 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 5.0 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:28 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 108 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:54 (2:59 / km)
Error: +0:34 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 43:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:52 (44.7 km/h)
Run: 15:28 (3:06 / km)
Total: 43:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 28 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 53 Leon Pauger
AUT
+30 s
+59 s
G3 / G7
 16:10
19:44
 43:12
Show details
Prediction details: Leon Pauger

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 16–50
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 53
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +59 s
Fehler: -28.6 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 146 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 7 (3 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 9.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:10 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 145 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:44 (3:57 / km)
Error: −3:34 / −0:43 / km
Overall prediction: 43:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:30 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 16:10 (3:14 / km)
Total: 43:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 24.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 20 Christopher Perham
GBR
+14 s
+9 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:22
15:32
 43:16
Show details
Prediction details: Christopher Perham

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 23–47
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 8:57
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 5.4 s
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:22 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:32 (3:06 / km)
Error: +0:50 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 43:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.1 km/h)
Run: 16:22 (3:16 / km)
Total: 43:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 8.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
40 / 43 Sébastien Pascal
ROU
+44 s
+52 s
G4 / G5
 15:37
15:09
 43:17
Show details
Prediction details: Sébastien Pascal

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 22–47
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 43
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: -7.9 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:37 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:09 (3:02 / km)
Error: +0:28 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:52 (44.7 km/h)
Run: 15:37 (3:07 / km)
Total: 43:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 24 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 39 Shachar Agur
ISR
+38 s
+38 s
G4 / G3
 15:39
16:14
 43:19
Show details
Prediction details: Shachar Agur

Placement

Prediction: 41
80% range: 29–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 39
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: -0.3 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur 0.73 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:14 (3:15 / km)
Error: −0:35 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 43:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:52 (44.7 km/h)
Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Total: 43:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 32.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
42 / 23 Zalán Hóbor
HUN
+6 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 16:26
15:49
 43:20
Show details
Prediction details: Zalán Hóbor

Placement

Prediction: 42
80% range: 33–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 6.2 s
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 104 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 93 %
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.5 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:26 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:37 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 43:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:49 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.1 km/h)
Run: 16:26 (3:17 / km)
Total: 43:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 0.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 38 Luke Anthony
USA
+28 s
+55 s
G3 / G4
 16:21
15:23
 43:23
Show details
Prediction details: Luke Anthony

Placement

Prediction: 43
80% range: 6–51
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 38
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: -27.0 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 71 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 4 (11 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:21 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:23 (3:05 / km)
Error: +0:58 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 43:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:30 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 16:21 (3:16 / km)
Total: 43:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 7.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 42 Adrien Deharre
BEL
+35 s
+45 s
G4 / G4
correct 		15:46
16:01
 43:26
Show details
Prediction details: Adrien Deharre

Placement

Prediction: 44
80% range: 12–46
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 42
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:18
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: -10.3 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 118 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 4 (11 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:46 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 43:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:52 (44.7 km/h)
Run: 15:46 (3:09 / km)
Total: 43:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 14.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
45 / 26 Philip Pertl
AUT
+38 s
+54 s
G4 / G3
 15:46
15:28
 43:26
Show details
Prediction details: Philip Pertl

Placement

Prediction: 45
80% range: 21–48
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: -16.0 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 131 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:46 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:28 (3:06 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 43:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:52 (44.7 km/h)
Run: 15:46 (3:09 / km)
Total: 43:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 32.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
46 / 46 Hugo Mario Ruiz Dimate
COL
+35 s
+51 s
G4 / G5
 16:11
15:33
 43:51
Show details
Prediction details: Hugo Mario Ruiz Dimate

Placement

Prediction: 46
80% range: 31–47
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 46
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:18
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: -16.0 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:11 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:33 (3:07 / km)
Error: +0:38 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 43:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:52 (44.7 km/h)
Run: 16:11 (3:14 / km)
Total: 43:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 29.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
47 / 31 Victor Goené
NED
+23 s
+44 s
G3 / G3
correct 		17:08
15:43
 44:10
Show details
Prediction details: Victor Goené

Placement

Prediction: 47
80% range: 43–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: -21.0 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 163 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:08 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 163 Duelle, Korrektur -1.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:43 (3:09 / km)
Error: +1:25 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 44:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:30 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 17:08 (3:26 / km)
Total: 44:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 2.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
48 / 24 Niels Van Lanen
NED
+25 s
+41 s
G3 / G3
correct 		17:10
15:17
 44:12
Show details
Prediction details: Niels Van Lanen

Placement

Prediction: 48
80% range: 44–49
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 24

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: -16.0 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 81 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (16 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur -1.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:17 (3:03 / km)
Error: +1:53 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 44:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:30 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Total: 44:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 4.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
49 / 3 Baptiste Passemard
FRA
+11 s
+29 s
G2 / G1
 17:59
14:33
 44:53
Show details
Prediction details: Baptiste Passemard

Placement

Prediction: 49
80% range: 41–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 46

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: -18.4 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (20 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -1.53 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:33 (2:55 / km)
Error: +3:26 / +0:41 / km
Overall prediction: 44:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:54 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.1 km/h)
Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Total: 44:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
50 / 49 Shavit Haiat
ISR
+53 s
+46 s
G5 / G4
 16:37
17:04
 44:57
Show details
Prediction details: Shavit Haiat

Placement

Prediction: 50
80% range: 45–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 49
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: 7.0 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 5.0 s
Gap behind: 9.9 s
Result: Group 4 (11 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:37 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 97 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:04 (3:25 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 44:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:27 (43.7 km/h)
Run: 16:37 (3:19 / km)
Total: 44:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 32.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
51 / 52 Andres Eduardo Diaz Marin
COL
+40 s
+49 s
G4 / G5
 17:19
17:58
 44:59
Show details
Prediction details: Andres Eduardo Diaz Marin

Placement

Prediction: 51
80% range: 47–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 52
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: -8.7 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:58 (3:36 / km)
Error: −0:39 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 44:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:52 (44.7 km/h)
Run: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Total: 44:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 20.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
52 / 47 Joaquín Mojica Baquero
COL
+63 s
+55 s
G6 / G4
 17:10
16:37
 46:33
Show details
Prediction details: Joaquín Mojica Baquero

Placement

Prediction: 52
80% range: 51–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 47
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 9:46
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: 7.9 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 9.9 s
Gap behind: 17.0 s
Result: Group 4 (11 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:37 (3:19 / km)
Error: +0:33 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 46:33
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:20 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Total: 46:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 57.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
53 / 51 Fernando José Casares Tan
PHI
+80 s
+99 s
G7 / G7
correct 		16:31
15:58
 47:38
Show details
Prediction details: Fernando José Casares Tan

Placement

Prediction: 53
80% range: 52–53
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 51
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +80 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +99 s
Fehler: -19.1 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 17.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (3 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:31 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:58 (3:12 / km)
Error: +0:33 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 47:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:47 (40.3 km/h)
Run: 16:31 (3:18 / km)
Total: 47:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 74.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.