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Semifinal 1 Elite Men

06.07.2024 Tiszaujvaros HUN
Race information and calculation basis
2024 World Triathlon Cup Tiszaujvaros

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 06.07.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 62/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 84.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 94.7 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.8
Mean swim error9.4 s
Mean bike-speed error1.96 km/h
Correct bike groups8/19
No history0
Within the 80% range63.2 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 9 Cameron Main
GBR
+13 s
+6 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:27
15:33
 43:46
Show details
Prediction details: Cameron Main

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–8
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 6.7 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 50 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:27 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:33 (3:01 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 43:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:54 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 15:27 (3:00 / km)
Total: 43:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 4.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 1 Csongor Lehmann
HUN
+4 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:37
16:11
 43:49
Show details
Prediction details: Csongor Lehmann

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–9
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +4 s
Time: 8:51
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 3.4 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 7.5 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 46.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:37 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:11 (3:08 / km)
Error: −0:34 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 43:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:51 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 15:37 (3:02 / km)
Total: 43:49
3 / 8 Mathis Beaulieu
CAN
+28 s
+23 s
G3 / G2
 15:00
15:26
 43:54
Show details
Prediction details: Mathis Beaulieu

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–14
Top-10 probability: 71 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 5.1 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 37 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:00 (2:54 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:37 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:26 (2:59 / km)
Error: −0:26 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 43:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:22 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 15:00 (2:54 / km)
Total: 43:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 19.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 2 Baptiste Passemard
FRA
+22 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 15:35
16:39
 43:54
Show details
Prediction details: Baptiste Passemard

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 93 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 21.7 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 46.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:35 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:39 (3:14 / km)
Error: −1:04 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 43:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:54 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 15:35 (3:01 / km)
Total: 43:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 13.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 11 Luke Schofield
AUS
+20 s
+28 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:36
15:49
 43:55
Show details
Prediction details: Luke Schofield

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–14
Top-10 probability: 71 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: -8.0 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 1.00 %, Sicherheit 41 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:36 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 48 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:49 (3:04 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 43:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:54 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 15:36 (3:01 / km)
Total: 43:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 11.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 5 Maxime Hueber-Moosbrugger
FRA
+21 s
+29 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:45
15:16
 44:04
Show details
Prediction details: Maxime Hueber-Moosbrugger

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–12
Top-10 probability: 75 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: -7.6 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.60 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:45 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:16 (2:58 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 44:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:54 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 15:45 (3:03 / km)
Total: 44:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
7 / 3 Callum McClusky
AUS
+29 s
+25 s
G3 / G2
 15:12
15:12
 44:06
Show details
Prediction details: Callum McClusky

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 2–8
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 3.8 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 65 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:12 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 61 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:12 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:00 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 44:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:22 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 15:12 (2:57 / km)
Total: 44:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 20.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 12 Kevin Tarek Viñuela Gonzalez
ESP
+12 s
+11 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:56
16:04
 44:15
Show details
Prediction details: Kevin Tarek Viñuela Gonzalez

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 6–13
Top-10 probability: 61 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 0.9 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 7.5 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:56 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.79 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:04 (3:07 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 44:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:59 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:54 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 15:56 (3:05 / km)
Total: 44:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 3.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 14 Cristóbal Baeza Muñoz
CHI
+16 s
+3 s
G2 / G1
 15:59
17:43
 44:18
Show details
Prediction details: Cristóbal Baeza Muñoz

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 3–17
Top-10 probability: 36 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 12.7 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 14 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 46.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:59 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:43 (3:26 / km)
Error: −1:44 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 44:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:54 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 15:59 (3:06 / km)
Total: 44:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 7.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 16 Eric Diener
GER
+37 s
+29 s
G4 / G2
 15:04
17:07
 44:20
Show details
Prediction details: Eric Diener

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 4–12
Top-10 probability: 78 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:24
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 7.6 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 61 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 5.0 s
Gap behind: 5.9 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:04 (2:55 / km)
Historical basis: 2:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 47 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:07 (3:19 / km)
Error: −2:03 / −0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 44:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:40 (41.9 km/h)
Run: 15:04 (2:55 / km)
Total: 44:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 28.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 4 Barclay Izzard
GBR
+32 s
+18 s
G3 / G2
 15:40
15:13
 44:34
Show details
Prediction details: Barclay Izzard

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 6–13
Top-10 probability: 55 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 13.6 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 5.0 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:40 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:13 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 44:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:22 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 15:40 (3:02 / km)
Total: 44:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 23.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 15 James Corbett
TRI
+23 s
+21 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:15
16:44
 44:34
Show details
Prediction details: James Corbett

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 9–18
Top-10 probability: 19 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 1.6 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 38 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:15 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:44 (3:15 / km)
Error: −0:29 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 44:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:54 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 16:15 (3:09 / km)
Total: 44:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 14.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 17 Yael Vladimir González Melendez
MEX
+26 s
+32 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:39
17:44
 44:58
Show details
Prediction details: Yael Vladimir González Melendez

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 14–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: -6.5 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:39 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 31 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:44 (3:26 / km)
Error: −1:05 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 44:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:54 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 16:39 (3:14 / km)
Total: 44:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 17.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 7 Itamar Levanon
ISR
+43 s
+37 s
G5 / G2
 15:36
15:28
 45:12
Show details
Prediction details: Itamar Levanon

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 6–18
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 9:30
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 5.5 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 81 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.9 s
Gap behind: 8.9 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:36 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 57 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:28 (3:00 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 45:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:45 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 15:36 (3:01 / km)
Total: 45:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 34.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 19 Jesús Jimenez Gimeno
ESP
+23 s
+22 s
G2 / G3
 16:55
19:07
 45:14
Show details
Prediction details: Jesús Jimenez Gimeno

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 14–19
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 1.3 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:55 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 35 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:07 (3:42 / km)
Error: −2:12 / −0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 45:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:54 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 16:55 (3:17 / km)
Total: 45:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 15 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 6 Gyula Kovács
HUN
+28 s
+4 s
G3 / G1
 16:29
16:50
 45:23
Show details
Prediction details: Gyula Kovács

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 11–19
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 23.7 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 46.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:29 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.07 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:50 (3:16 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 45:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:22 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 16:29 (3:12 / km)
Total: 45:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 19.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 13 Erik Yamir Ramos Croda
MEX
+51 s
+34 s
G5 / G2
 16:10
16:09
 45:46
Show details
Prediction details: Erik Yamir Ramos Croda

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 13–19
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: 17.4 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 61 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.9 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:10 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 1.04 %, Sicherheit 49 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:09 (3:08 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 45:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:45 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 16:10 (3:08 / km)
Total: 45:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 43.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 18 Tzu I Pan
TPE
+18 s
+31 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:30
18:11
 45:49
Show details
Prediction details: Tzu I Pan

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 16–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: -12.7 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 37 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:30 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.75 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:11 (3:31 / km)
Error: −0:41 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 45:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:54 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 17:30 (3:23 / km)
Total: 45:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 10 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 10 Denis Kolobrodov
RUS
+2 s
+20 s
G1 / G2
15:46
Show details
Prediction details: Denis Kolobrodov

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +2 s
Time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: -18.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:46 (3:03 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:49 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable