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Semifinal 2 Elite Men

06.07.2024 Tiszaujvaros HUN
Race information and calculation basis
2024 World Triathlon Cup Tiszaujvaros

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 06.07.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 68/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 95.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 95.2 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.9
Mean swim error11.6 s
Mean bike-speed error2.42 km/h
Correct bike groups13/21
No history0
Within the 80% range61.9 %
Details
1 / 10 Brayden Mercer
AUS
+2 s
+10 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:21
17:32
 43:23
Show details
Prediction details: Brayden Mercer

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +2 s
Time: 8:40
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: -8.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 45 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 9.5 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 47.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:21 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:32 (3:24 / km)
Error: −2:11 / −0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 43:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:40 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:41 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 15:21 (2:59 / km)
Total: 43:23
2 / 2 Brandon Copeland
AUS
+13 s
+10 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:21
16:15
 43:23
Show details
Prediction details: Brandon Copeland

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 8:51
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 2.9 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 79 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 47.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:21 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:15 (3:09 / km)
Error: −0:54 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 43:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:51 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:41 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 15:21 (2:59 / km)
Total: 43:23
3 / 6 Saxon Morgan
NZL
+17 s
+10 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:39
16:28
 43:41
Show details
Prediction details: Saxon Morgan

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 6.7 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 79 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 47.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:39 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 87 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:28 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:49 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 43:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:41 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 15:39 (3:02 / km)
Total: 43:41
4 / 7 Valentin Morlec
FRA
+18 s
+4 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:47
17:05
 43:49
Show details
Prediction details: Valentin Morlec

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 14.1 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 55 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 47.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:47 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:05 (3:19 / km)
Error: −1:18 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 43:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:56 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:41 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 15:47 (3:03 / km)
Total: 43:49
5 / 3 Hamish Reilly
GBR
+16 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:51
16:24
 43:53
Show details
Prediction details: Hamish Reilly

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–11
Top-10 probability: 84 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 7.7 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 45 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 93 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 47.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:51 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:24 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:54 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:41 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 15:51 (3:04 / km)
Total: 43:53
6 / 9 Daniel Damian
CAN
+28 s
+46 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:22
15:32
 43:56
Show details
Prediction details: Daniel Damian

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 3–13
Top-10 probability: 78 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: -18.4 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 65 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:22 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 53 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:32 (3:01 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 43:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:01 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 15:22 (2:59 / km)
Total: 43:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 3.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 4 Jack Willis
GBR
+16 s
+5 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:54
16:27
 43:56
Show details
Prediction details: Jack Willis

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–12
Top-10 probability: 68 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 10.8 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 96 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 47.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:54 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:27 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:54 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:41 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 15:54 (3:05 / km)
Total: 43:56
8 / 1 Gergő Dobi
HUN
+12 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:58
16:00
 44:00
Show details
Prediction details: Gergő Dobi

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 6–12
Top-10 probability: 69 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 8:50
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 10.5 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.5 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 46.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:58 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 78 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:00 (3:06 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 44:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:50 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:41 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 15:58 (3:06 / km)
Total: 44:00
9 / 12 Paul Georgenthum
FRA
+20 s
+16 s
G1 / G2
 16:01
16:05
 44:03
Show details
Prediction details: Paul Georgenthum

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 6–14
Top-10 probability: 49 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 8:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 4.4 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 82 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 4.6 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:01 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:05 (3:07 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 44:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:41 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 16:01 (3:06 / km)
Total: 44:03
10 / 14 Bradley Course
AUS
+31 s
+39 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:35
17:02
 44:09
Show details
Prediction details: Bradley Course

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 4–14
Top-10 probability: 43 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: -8.4 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 68 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:35 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 49 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:02 (3:18 / km)
Error: −1:27 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 44:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:01 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 15:35 (3:01 / km)
Total: 44:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 6.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 5 Chase McQueen
USA
+17 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:14
16:28
 44:16
Show details
Prediction details: Chase McQueen

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 6–14
Top-10 probability: 48 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 17.0 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 49 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 93 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (8 people)
Speed: 46.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:14 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 31 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:28 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 44:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:41 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 16:14 (3:09 / km)
Total: 44:16
12 / 11 Erwin Vanderplancke
BEL
+28 s
+38 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:55
15:51
 44:29
Show details
Prediction details: Erwin Vanderplancke

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 5–16
Top-10 probability: 31 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: -10.1 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.67 %, Sicherheit 22 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:55 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:51 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 44:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:01 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 15:55 (3:05 / km)
Total: 44:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 3.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 18 Maayan Glantz
ISR
+32 s
+42 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:29
18:06
 45:03
Show details
Prediction details: Maayan Glantz

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 14–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -9.7 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 72 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 4.6 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:29 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:06 (3:30 / km)
Error: −1:37 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 45:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:01 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 16:29 (3:12 / km)
Total: 45:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 8 Genis Grau
ESP
+37 s
+18 s
G3 / G2
 16:25
15:27
 45:14
Show details
Prediction details: Genis Grau

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 11–18
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 18.9 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 42.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.6 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:25 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 36 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:27 (3:00 / km)
Error: +0:58 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 45:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:12 (42.6 km/h)
Run: 16:25 (3:11 / km)
Total: 45:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 12.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 16 Aurél Sinkó-Uribe
COL
+17 s
+33 s
G1 / G2
 17:20
17:21
 45:22
Show details
Prediction details: Aurél Sinkó-Uribe

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 10–19
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: -16.4 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 63 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:20 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 58 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:21 (3:22 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 45:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:41 (43.3 km/h)
Run: 17:20 (3:22 / km)
Total: 45:22
16 / 19 Pavlos Antoniades
CAN
+46 s
+61 s
G4 / G3
 15:22
16:58
 45:49
Show details
Prediction details: Pavlos Antoniades

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 3–17
Top-10 probability: 36 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 9:24
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: -14.8 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.01 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.0 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:22 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 1.03 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:58 (3:17 / km)
Error: −1:36 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 45:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:38 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 15:22 (2:59 / km)
Total: 45:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 21.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 13 Jesus Gildardo Espiritu
MEX
+37 s
+14 s
G3 / G2
 17:20
16:16
 46:09
Show details
Prediction details: Jesus Gildardo Espiritu

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 16–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 23.2 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 31 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 42.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 9.0 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:20 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:16 (3:09 / km)
Error: +1:04 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 46:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:12 (42.6 km/h)
Run: 17:20 (3:22 / km)
Total: 46:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 12.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 17 Gabriel Barac
CRO
+49 s
+43 s
G4 / G2
 16:20
17:52
 46:47
Show details
Prediction details: Gabriel Barac

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 16–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 5.7 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 13.6 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:20 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:52 (3:28 / km)
Error: −1:32 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 46:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:38 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 16:20 (3:10 / km)
Total: 46:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 24.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 21 Boris Andreev
BUL
+25 s
+51 s
G2 / G3
 18:39
18:44
 47:13
Show details
Prediction details: Boris Andreev

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 18–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: -26.0 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 60 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.6 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:39 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:44 (3:38 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 47:13
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:01 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 18:39 (3:37 / km)
Total: 47:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 0.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 20 Benedek Peter
HUN
+62 s
+62 s
G5 / G3
 16:44
18:10
 47:22
Show details
Prediction details: Benedek Peter

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 19–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +62 s
Fehler: 0.3 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 13.6 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:44 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 40 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:10 (3:31 / km)
Error: −1:26 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 47:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:36 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 16:44 (3:15 / km)
Total: 47:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 38 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 15 Georgiy Klimenko
AIN
+26 s
+35 s
G2 / G2
correct
17:06
Show details
Prediction details: Georgiy Klimenko

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -9.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:06 (3:19 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:01 (42.8 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 1.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.