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Elite Men

26.10.2024 Tongyeong KOR
Race information and calculation basis
2024 World Triathlon Cup Tongyeong

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 26.10.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 61/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 82.9 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 97.1 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error8.7
Mean swim error14.6 s
Mean bike-speed error3.27 km/h
Correct bike groups6/35
No history0
Within the 80% range37.1 %
Details
1 / 11 Igor Dupuis
FRA
+19 s
+3 s
G1 / G3
 30:49
31:45
 1:23:34
Show details
Prediction details: Igor Dupuis

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–11
Top-10 probability: 88 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 17:57
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 16.3 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.67 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 4.9 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:49 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:45 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:56 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:23:34
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 17:57 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:26 (44.7 km/h)
Run: 30:49 (3:05 / km)
Total: 1:23:34
2 / 13 Cameron Main
GBR
+17 s
+16 s
G1 / G3
 30:50
32:00
 1:23:35
Show details
Prediction details: Cameron Main

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–8
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 17:55
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 1.0 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.4 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:50 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:00 (3:12 / km)
Error: −1:10 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:23:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:55 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:26 (44.7 km/h)
Run: 30:50 (3:05 / km)
Total: 1:23:35
3 / 23 Nicola Azzano
ITA
+18 s
+3 s
G1 / G3
 31:05
33:25
 1:23:50
Show details
Prediction details: Nicola Azzano

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–13
Top-10 probability: 83 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 17:56
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 14.8 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 133 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 66 %
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:05 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 128 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:25 (3:21 / km)
Error: −2:20 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:23:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:56 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:26 (44.7 km/h)
Run: 31:05 (3:07 / km)
Total: 1:23:50
4 / 32 Takumi Hojo
JPN
+14 s
+14 s
G1 / G3
 31:07
36:32
 1:23:52
Show details
Prediction details: Takumi Hojo

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -28

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 17:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: -0.4 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.2 s
Gap behind: 3.4 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:07 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:32 (3:39 / km)
Error: −5:25 / −0:32 / km
Overall prediction: 1:23:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:52 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:26 (44.7 km/h)
Run: 31:07 (3:07 / km)
Total: 1:23:52
5 / 7 Aurelien Jem
FRA
+37 s
+44 s
G2 / G3
 29:41
31:23
 1:23:55
Show details
Prediction details: Aurelien Jem

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 1–10
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 18:15
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: -6.9 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (25 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 29:41 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.69 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:23 (3:08 / km)
Error: −1:42 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:23:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:15 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:59 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 29:41 (2:58 / km)
Total: 1:23:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 13.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 2 David Cantero Del Campo
ESP
+45 s
+52 s
G2 / G3
 29:41
30:20
 1:23:55
Show details
Prediction details: David Cantero Del Campo

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 1–8
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 18:23
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: -7.1 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (25 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 4.8 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 29:41 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:20 (3:02 / km)
Error: −0:39 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:23:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:23 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:59 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 29:41 (2:58 / km)
Total: 1:23:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 21.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 1 Dylan McCullough
NZL
+6 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		31:11
32:21
 1:23:56
Show details
Prediction details: Dylan McCullough

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 3–9
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 17:44
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 5.1 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 89 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:11 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 89 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:21 (3:14 / km)
Error: −1:10 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:23:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:44 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:26 (44.7 km/h)
Run: 31:11 (3:07 / km)
Total: 1:23:56
8 / 5 Roberto Sanchez Mantecon
ESP
+74 s
+59 s
G2 / G2
correct 		30:27
31:39
 1:24:41
Show details
Prediction details: Roberto Sanchez Mantecon

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–19
Top-10 probability: 45 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 18:52
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +59 s
Fehler: 14.5 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 98 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (25 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:27 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 79 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:39 (3:10 / km)
Error: −1:12 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:24:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:52 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:59 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 30:27 (3:03 / km)
Total: 1:24:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 50.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 14 Louis Vitiello
FRA
+43 s
+58 s
G2 / G3
 31:03
32:02
 1:25:17
Show details
Prediction details: Louis Vitiello

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 6–15
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 18:21
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: -15.0 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (25 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:03 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:02 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:59 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:21 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:59 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 31:03 (3:06 / km)
Total: 1:25:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 19.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 3 Maciej Bruzdziak
POL
+7 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		32:32
33:26
 1:25:17
Show details
Prediction details: Maciej Bruzdziak

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 8–18
Top-10 probability: 43 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 17:45
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 7.4 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 6.2 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.91 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:32 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.76 %, Sicherheit 95 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:26 (3:21 / km)
Error: −0:54 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:45 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:26 (44.7 km/h)
Run: 32:32 (3:15 / km)
Total: 1:25:17
11 / 25 Brayden Mercer
AUS
+6 s
+1 s
G1 / G3
 32:48
33:37
 1:25:33
Show details
Prediction details: Brayden Mercer

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 9–20
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 17:44
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 5.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 83 %
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:48 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 49 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:37 (3:22 / km)
Error: −0:49 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:44 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:26 (44.7 km/h)
Run: 32:48 (3:17 / km)
Total: 1:25:33
12 / 28 Tomas Zikmund
CZE
+27 s
+55 s
G2 / G3
 31:28
34:26
 1:25:42
Show details
Prediction details: Tomas Zikmund

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 6–17
Top-10 probability: 43 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 18:05
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: -28.4 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (25 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:28 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur 0.74 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:26 (3:27 / km)
Error: −2:58 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:05 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:59 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 31:28 (3:09 / km)
Total: 1:25:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 3.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 20 Kuba Gajda
POL
+50 s
+65 s
G2 / G3
 31:32
33:04
 1:25:46
Show details
Prediction details: Kuba Gajda

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 1–30
Top-10 probability: 43 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 18:28
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: -15.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (25 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 9.0 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:32 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:04 (3:18 / km)
Error: −1:32 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:28 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:59 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 31:32 (3:09 / km)
Total: 1:25:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 26.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 4 Maxime Hueber-Moosbrugger
FRA
+43 s
+65 s
G2 / G3
 31:42
30:49
 1:25:56
Show details
Prediction details: Maxime Hueber-Moosbrugger

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 8–21
Top-10 probability: 26 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 18:21
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: -21.8 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (25 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:42 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 91 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:49 (3:05 / km)
Error: +0:53 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:21 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:59 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 31:42 (3:10 / km)
Total: 1:25:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 20 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 18 Izan Edo Aguilar
ESP
+34 s
+57 s
G2 / G3
 31:52
32:36
 1:26:06
Show details
Prediction details: Izan Edo Aguilar

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 9–22
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 18:12
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: -22.9 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (25 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.3 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:52 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:42 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:36 (3:16 / km)
Error: −0:44 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:06
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:12 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:59 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 31:52 (3:11 / km)
Total: 1:26:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 10.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 24 Ren Sato
JPN
+43 s
+52 s
G2 / G3
 31:55
33:23
 1:26:09
Show details
Prediction details: Ren Sato

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 11–22
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 18:21
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: -8.8 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 138 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (25 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:55 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:23 (3:20 / km)
Error: −1:28 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:21 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:59 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 31:55 (3:12 / km)
Total: 1:26:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 20 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 19 Luke Schofield
AUS
+38 s
+12 s
G2 / G3
 31:57
32:47
 1:26:11
Show details
Prediction details: Luke Schofield

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 10–22
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 18:16
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 26.4 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 50 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (25 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:57 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:47 (3:17 / km)
Error: −0:50 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:16 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:59 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 31:57 (3:12 / km)
Total: 1:26:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 15.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 6 Ben Dijkstra
TRI
+38 s
+18 s
G2 / G3
 31:58
31:20
 1:26:12
Show details
Prediction details: Ben Dijkstra

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 8–24
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 18:16
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 19.7 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 78 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (25 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:58 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:20 (3:08 / km)
Error: +0:38 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:16 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:59 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 31:58 (3:12 / km)
Total: 1:26:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 14.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 15 Pavlos Antoniades
CAN
+59 s
+72 s
G2 / G3
 32:04
32:13
 1:26:18
Show details
Prediction details: Pavlos Antoniades

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 12–27
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 18:37
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +72 s
Fehler: -13.0 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 74 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (25 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.0 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:04 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:13 (3:13 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:37 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:59 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 32:04 (3:12 / km)
Total: 1:26:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 35.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 34 Kamil Kulik
POL
+61 s
+104 s
G2 / G4
 32:14
33:56
 1:26:28
Show details
Prediction details: Kamil Kulik

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 15–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 18:39
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +104 s
Fehler: -43.4 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 41 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (25 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:14 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 35 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:56 (3:24 / km)
Error: −1:42 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:39 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:59 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 32:14 (3:13 / km)
Total: 1:26:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 37.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 8 Nathan Grayel
FRA
+41 s
+57 s
G2 / G3
 32:18
31:33
 1:26:32
Show details
Prediction details: Nathan Grayel

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 11–26
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 18:19
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: -16.0 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 56 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (25 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:18 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:33 (3:09 / km)
Error: +0:45 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:19 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:59 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 32:18 (3:14 / km)
Total: 1:26:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 17.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 21 Jan Diener
GER
+30 s
+39 s
G2 / G3
 32:29
33:16
 1:26:43
Show details
Prediction details: Jan Diener

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 9–22
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 18:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: -8.6 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (25 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:29 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:16 (3:20 / km)
Error: −0:47 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:08 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:59 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 32:29 (3:15 / km)
Total: 1:26:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 7.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 26 Kyotaro Yoshikawa
JPN
+7 s
+12 s
G1 / G3
 34:07
33:49
 1:26:52
Show details
Prediction details: Kyotaro Yoshikawa

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 12–29
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 17:45
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: -5.0 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 79 %
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:07 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 113 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:49 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:45 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:26 (44.7 km/h)
Run: 34:07 (3:25 / km)
Total: 1:26:52
24 / 10 Liam Donnelly
CAN
+64 s
+68 s
G2 / G3
 32:49
31:42
 1:27:03
Show details
Prediction details: Liam Donnelly

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 21–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 18:42
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +68 s
Fehler: -3.9 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 86 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (25 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 8.9 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:49 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 70 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:42 (3:10 / km)
Error: +1:07 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:42 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:59 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 32:49 (3:17 / km)
Total: 1:27:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 40.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 27 Saxon Morgan
NZL
+27 s
+13 s
G2 / G3
 32:50
34:02
 1:27:04
Show details
Prediction details: Saxon Morgan

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 13–25
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 18:05
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 13.6 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 137 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (25 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 3.8 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:50 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 131 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:02 (3:24 / km)
Error: −1:12 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:05 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:59 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 32:50 (3:17 / km)
Total: 1:27:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 3.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 29 Juan Jose Andrade Figueroa
ECU
+50 s
+50 s
G2 / G3
 33:09
34:33
 1:27:23
Show details
Prediction details: Juan Jose Andrade Figueroa

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 22–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 18:28
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: -0.3 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 66 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (25 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.8 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:09 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 53 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:33 (3:27 / km)
Error: −1:24 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:28 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:59 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 33:09 (3:19 / km)
Total: 1:27:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 26.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 9 Sébastien Pascal
ROU
+84 s
+55 s
G3 / G3
correct 		31:34
31:35
 1:27:46
Show details
Prediction details: Sébastien Pascal

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 16–28
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +84 s
Time: 19:02
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: 28.9 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.5 s
Gap behind: 7.9 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:34 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:35 (3:10 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:02 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:41 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 31:34 (3:09 / km)
Total: 1:27:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 60.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 22 Philip Pertl
AUT
+73 s
+59 s
G2 / G3
 33:47
33:20
 1:28:01
Show details
Prediction details: Philip Pertl

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 26–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +73 s
Time: 18:51
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +59 s
Fehler: 14.0 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (25 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.9 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:47 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:20 (3:20 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:51 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:59 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 33:47 (3:23 / km)
Total: 1:28:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 49.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 17 Esteban Basanta Fouz
ESP
+31 s
+19 s
G2 / G3
 34:08
32:21
 1:28:22
Show details
Prediction details: Esteban Basanta Fouz

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 23–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 18:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 11.8 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (25 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 3.3 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:08 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:21 (3:14 / km)
Error: +1:47 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:59 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 34:08 (3:25 / km)
Total: 1:28:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 7.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 12 Ka'eo Kruse
USA
+24 s
+52 s
G2 / G3
 34:16
31:47
 1:28:30
Show details
Prediction details: Ka'eo Kruse

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 19–30
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 18:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: -27.8 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (25 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.9 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:16 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur -0.86 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:47 (3:11 / km)
Error: +2:29 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:59 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 34:16 (3:26 / km)
Total: 1:28:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 35 Sangmin Park
KOR
+41 s
+53 s
G2 / G3
 36:06
38:30
 1:30:20
Show details
Prediction details: Sangmin Park

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 30–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 18:19
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +53 s
Fehler: -12.0 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 77 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (25 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:06 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.80 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:30 (3:51 / km)
Error: −2:24 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:19 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:59 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 36:06 (3:37 / km)
Total: 1:30:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 17.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 16 Kazushi Jozuka
JPN
+92 s
+62 s
G3 / G3
correct 		34:54
32:18
 1:31:06
Show details
Prediction details: Kazushi Jozuka

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 30–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +92 s
Time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +62 s
Fehler: 29.8 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 58 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.9 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:54 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 55 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:18 (3:14 / km)
Error: +2:36 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:06
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:10 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:41 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 34:54 (3:29 / km)
Total: 1:31:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 68.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 30 Blake Harris
CAN
+74 s
+58 s
G2 / G2
correct 		37:44
36:09
 1:31:58
Show details
Prediction details: Blake Harris

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 32–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 18:52
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: 16.4 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 60 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (25 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 9.5 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:44 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -1.93 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:09 (3:37 / km)
Error: +1:35 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:52 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:59 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 37:44 (3:46 / km)
Total: 1:31:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 51.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 33 Minho Kweon
KOR
+36 s
+14 s
G2 / G3
 39:36
37:26
 1:33:50
Show details
Prediction details: Minho Kweon

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 33–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 18:14
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 21.6 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (25 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:36 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -1.06 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:26 (3:45 / km)
Error: +2:10 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:14 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:59 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 39:36 (3:58 / km)
Total: 1:33:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 12.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 31 Leon Pauger
AUT
+61 s
+69 s
G2 / G3
 40:50
36:21
 1:35:04
Show details
Prediction details: Leon Pauger

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 35–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 18:39
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +69 s
Fehler: -7.7 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (25 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 3 (33 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:50 (4:05 / km)
Historical basis: 4:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 81 Duelle, Korrektur -1.38 %, Sicherheit 65 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:21 (3:38 / km)
Error: +4:29 / +0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:39 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 52:59 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 40:50 (4:05 / km)
Total: 1:35:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 38.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.