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Elite Women

26.10.2024 Tongyeong KOR
Race information and calculation basis
2024 World Triathlon Cup Tongyeong

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 26.10.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 60/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 80.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error5.1
Mean swim error12.9 s
Mean bike-speed error2.41 km/h
Correct bike groups17/25
No history0
Within the 80% range60.0 %
Details
1 / 9 Alissa Konig
SUI
+53 s
+36 s
G2 / G2
correct 		34:27
36:14
 1:35:26
Show details
Prediction details: Alissa Konig

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 19:33
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 17.3 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:27 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.62 %, Sicherheit 89 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:14 (3:37 / km)
Error: −1:47 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:33 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:02 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 34:27 (3:27 / km)
Total: 1:35:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:12
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 20.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 1 Jolien Vermeylen
BEL
+22 s
+5 s
G1 / G1
correct 		35:21
35:38
 1:35:58
Show details
Prediction details: Jolien Vermeylen

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 19:02
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 16.6 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 91 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 3.4 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:21 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 102 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:38 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:02 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:07 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 35:21 (3:32 / km)
Total: 1:35:58
3 / 20 Kira Hedgeland
AUS
+25 s
+39 s
G1 / G2
 35:28
38:48
 1:36:05
Show details
Prediction details: Kira Hedgeland

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 19:05
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: -14.0 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur 1.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 66 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.4 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:28 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur 0.78 %, Sicherheit 87 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:48 (3:53 / km)
Error: −3:20 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:05 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:07 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 35:28 (3:33 / km)
Total: 1:36:05
4 / 3 Sian Rainsley
GBR
+18 s
+6 s
G1 / G1
correct 		35:32
36:09
 1:36:09
Show details
Prediction details: Sian Rainsley

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 18:58
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 11.8 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 3.8 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:32 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 91 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:09 (3:37 / km)
Error: −0:37 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:58 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:07 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 35:32 (3:33 / km)
Total: 1:36:09
5 / 6 Gina Sereno
USA
+38 s
+39 s
G2 / G2
correct 		35:34
35:36
 1:36:33
Show details
Prediction details: Gina Sereno

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 2–9
Top-10 probability: 93 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 19:18
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: -1.3 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 98 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:34 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 49 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:36 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:18 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:02 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 35:34 (3:33 / km)
Total: 1:36:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:12
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 8 Costanza Arpinelli
ITA
+56 s
+67 s
G2 / G2
correct 		35:39
35:56
 1:36:38
Show details
Prediction details: Costanza Arpinelli

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 1–15
Top-10 probability: 68 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 19:36
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +67 s
Fehler: -10.7 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 57 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 7.1 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:39 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:56 (3:36 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:36 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:02 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 35:39 (3:34 / km)
Total: 1:36:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:11
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 24.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 7 Marta Pintanel Raymundo
ESP
+48 s
+36 s
G2 / G2
correct 		35:42
35:44
 1:36:41
Show details
Prediction details: Marta Pintanel Raymundo

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 19:28
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 12.0 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 123 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.9 s
Gap behind: 3.5 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:42 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:44 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:28 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:02 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 35:42 (3:34 / km)
Total: 1:36:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:12
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 16.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 13 Tamara Gorman
USA
+25 s
+33 s
G1 / G2
 36:34
36:53
 1:37:11
Show details
Prediction details: Tamara Gorman

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–9
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 19:05
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: -7.8 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 83 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:34 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:53 (3:41 / km)
Error: −0:19 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:05 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:07 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 36:34 (3:39 / km)
Total: 1:37:11
9 / 12 Erika Ackerlund
USA
+52 s
+32 s
G2 / G2
correct 		36:24
36:41
 1:37:23
Show details
Prediction details: Erika Ackerlund

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 7–15
Top-10 probability: 63 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 19:32
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 19.9 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.91 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:24 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 88 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:41 (3:40 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:32 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:02 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 36:24 (3:38 / km)
Total: 1:37:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:12
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 20.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 18 Hollie Elliott
IRL
+41 s
+35 s
G2 / G2
correct 		36:58
37:49
 1:37:57
Show details
Prediction details: Hollie Elliott

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 7–17
Top-10 probability: 45 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 19:21
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 6.0 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 85 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:58 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 55 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:49 (3:47 / km)
Error: −0:51 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:21 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:02 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 36:58 (3:42 / km)
Total: 1:37:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:12
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 9.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 17 Manami Hayashi
JPN
+52 s
+51 s
G2 / G2
correct 		37:06
37:39
 1:38:05
Show details
Prediction details: Manami Hayashi

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 9–21
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 19:32
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: 1.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 63 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:06 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 50 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:39 (3:46 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:32 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:02 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 37:06 (3:43 / km)
Total: 1:38:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:12
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 20.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 14 Hye Rim Jeong
KOR
+52 s
+57 s
G2 / G2
correct 		37:12
37:03
 1:38:11
Show details
Prediction details: Hye Rim Jeong

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 10–16
Top-10 probability: 19 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 19:32
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: -4.8 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:12 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:03 (3:42 / km)
Error: +0:09 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:32 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:02 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 37:12 (3:43 / km)
Total: 1:38:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:12
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 20.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 4 Sandra Dodet
FRA
+40 s
+33 s
G2 / G2
correct 		37:27
35:08
 1:38:26
Show details
Prediction details: Sandra Dodet

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 9–17
Top-10 probability: 25 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 19:20
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 6.6 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 67 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:27 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur -0.91 %, Sicherheit 55 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:08 (3:31 / km)
Error: +2:19 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:20 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:02 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 37:27 (3:45 / km)
Total: 1:38:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:12
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 7.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 2 Summer Rappaport
USA
+27 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		38:08
35:53
 1:38:45
Show details
Prediction details: Summer Rappaport

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 11–18
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 19:07
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 27.1 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:08 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur -1.03 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:53 (3:35 / km)
Error: +2:15 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:07 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:07 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 38:08 (3:49 / km)
Total: 1:38:45
15 / 5 Lea Coninx
FRA
+63 s
+35 s
G3 / G2
 36:34
35:17
 1:38:53
Show details
Prediction details: Lea Coninx

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 2–21
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 19:43
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 28.4 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur -0.75 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.1 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:34 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:17 (3:32 / km)
Error: +1:17 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:43 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:09 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 36:34 (3:39 / km)
Total: 1:38:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:11
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 31.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 15 Gayeon Park
KOR
+52 s
+71 s
G2 / G2
correct 		38:25
37:18
 1:39:24
Show details
Prediction details: Gayeon Park

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 16–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 19:32
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +71 s
Fehler: -19.5 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:25 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:18 (3:44 / km)
Error: +1:07 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:24
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:32 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:02 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 38:25 (3:51 / km)
Total: 1:39:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:12
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 19.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 10 Beatrice Mallozzi
ITA
+66 s
+68 s
G3 / G2
 37:07
36:13
 1:39:26
Show details
Prediction details: Beatrice Mallozzi

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 10–22
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +66 s
Time: 19:46
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +68 s
Fehler: -1.6 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:07 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:13 (3:37 / km)
Error: +0:54 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:46 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:09 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 37:07 (3:43 / km)
Total: 1:39:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:11
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 34.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 25 Tereza Zimovjanova
CZE
+70 s
+66 s
G3 / G2
 37:08
42:40
 1:39:27
Show details
Prediction details: Tereza Zimovjanova

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 9–21
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +70 s
Time: 19:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +66 s
Fehler: 4.0 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 114 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 9.0 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:08 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 42:40 (4:16 / km)
Error: −5:32 / −0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:09 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 37:08 (3:43 / km)
Total: 1:39:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:12
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 38.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 22 Miyu Sakai
JPN
+37 s
+33 s
G2 / G2
correct 		39:06
39:42
 1:40:05
Show details
Prediction details: Miyu Sakai

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 16–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 19:17
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 3.7 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 89 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.0 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:06 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 89 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 98 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:42 (3:58 / km)
Error: −0:36 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:40:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:17 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:02 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 39:06 (3:55 / km)
Total: 1:40:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:12
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 11 Eva Goodisson
NZL
+31 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		39:42
38:29
 1:40:19
Show details
Prediction details: Eva Goodisson

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 17–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 19:11
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 27.7 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 84 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 6.0 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:42 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:29 (3:51 / km)
Error: +1:13 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:40:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:11 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:07 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 39:42 (3:58 / km)
Total: 1:40:19
21 / 19 Sarika Nakayama
JPN
+64 s
+36 s
G3 / G2
 38:12
38:15
 1:40:31
Show details
Prediction details: Sarika Nakayama

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 16–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 19:44
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 28.3 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 124 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:12 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 123 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:15 (3:50 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:40:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:44 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:09 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 38:12 (3:49 / km)
Total: 1:40:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:11
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 32.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 23 Hiraku Fukuoka
JPN
+66 s
+39 s
G3 / G2
 38:13
40:35
 1:40:32
Show details
Prediction details: Hiraku Fukuoka

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 13–24
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +66 s
Time: 19:46
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 26.8 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 136 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:13 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 139 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:35 (4:04 / km)
Error: −2:22 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:40:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:46 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:09 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 38:13 (3:49 / km)
Total: 1:40:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:12
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 34.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 24 Ji Yeon Kim
KOR
+52 s
+65 s
G2 / G2
correct 		40:19
41:16
 1:41:18
Show details
Prediction details: Ji Yeon Kim

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 20–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 19:32
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: -13.3 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:19 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:16 (4:08 / km)
Error: −0:57 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:41:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:32 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:02 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 40:19 (4:02 / km)
Total: 1:41:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:12
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 20 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 21 Katrien Maes
BEL
+42 s
+32 s
G2 / G2
correct 		42:18
39:14
 1:43:17
Show details
Prediction details: Katrien Maes

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 23–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 19:22
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 10.1 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 5.9 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 42:18 (4:14 / km)
Historical basis: 4:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -1.75 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:14 (3:55 / km)
Error: +3:04 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 1:43:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:22 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:02 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 42:18 (4:14 / km)
Total: 1:43:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:12
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 10.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 16 Gyeongmin Park
KOR
+79 s
+76 s
G4 / G2
 37:48
37:35
 1:45:21
Show details
Prediction details: Gyeongmin Park

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 9–25
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +79 s
Time: 19:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +76 s
Fehler: 3.0 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 48 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:48 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:35 (3:46 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:45:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:14 (35.3 km/h)
Run: 37:48 (3:47 / km)
Total: 1:45:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:12
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 47.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.