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Elite Women

20.04.2024 Wollongong AUS
Race information and calculation basis
2024 World Triathlon Cup Wollongong

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 20.04.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 70/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error6.9
Mean swim error20.8 s
Mean bike-speed error3.27 km/h
Correct bike groups4/29
No history0
Within the 80% range65.5 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 4 Rachel Klamer
NED
+37 s
+36 s
G2 / G1
 16:36
17:01
 47:40
Show details
Prediction details: Rachel Klamer

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–7
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 1.2 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 112 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:36 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 93 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:01 (3:24 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 47:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:22 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 16:36 (3:19 / km)
Total: 47:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 9.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 5 Erica Hawley
BER
+40 s
+25 s
G2 / G1
 16:51
17:03
 47:55
Show details
Prediction details: Erica Hawley

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–13
Top-10 probability: 73 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:43
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 14.8 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:51 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 82 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:03 (3:25 / km)
Error: −0:12 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 47:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:22 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 16:51 (3:22 / km)
Total: 47:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 15.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 3 Ainsley Thorpe
NZL
+33 s
+18 s
G2 / G1
 16:57
17:03
 48:01
Show details
Prediction details: Ainsley Thorpe

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–16
Top-10 probability: 75 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 14.6 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 136 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:57 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 120 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:03 (3:25 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 48:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:22 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 16:57 (3:23 / km)
Total: 48:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 4.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 28 Kira Hedgeland
AUS
+37 s
+13 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:57
19:43
 48:01
Show details
Prediction details: Kira Hedgeland

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–18
Top-10 probability: 75 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -24

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 23.9 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:57 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:43 (3:57 / km)
Error: −2:46 / −0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 48:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:22 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 16:57 (3:23 / km)
Total: 48:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 23 Amelie Kretz
CAN
+39 s
+26 s
G2 / G1
 17:05
18:37
 48:09
Show details
Prediction details: Amelie Kretz

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–21
Top-10 probability: 54 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 12.5 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 74 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:05 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 64 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:37 (3:43 / km)
Error: −1:32 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 48:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:22 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 17:05 (3:25 / km)
Total: 48:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 14.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 8 Jolanda Annen
SUI
+30 s
+11 s
G2 / G1
 17:09
17:28
 48:13
Show details
Prediction details: Jolanda Annen

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 1–17
Top-10 probability: 68 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 19.2 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 88 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:09 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 83 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:28 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:19 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 48:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:22 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 17:09 (3:26 / km)
Total: 48:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 2.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 12 Lisa Perterer
AUT
+39 s
+25 s
G2 / G1
 17:12
17:40
 48:16
Show details
Prediction details: Lisa Perterer

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–22
Top-10 probability: 56 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 14.3 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 98 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:40 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:28 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 48:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:22 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Total: 48:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 15.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 18 Olivia Thornbury
NZL
+35 s
+12 s
G2 / G1
 17:13
17:52
 48:17
Show details
Prediction details: Olivia Thornbury

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 1–21
Top-10 probability: 64 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 23.2 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:13 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:39 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 48:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:22 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 17:13 (3:27 / km)
Total: 48:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 7.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 2 Maria Carolina Velasquez Soto
COL
+46 s
+25 s
G3 / G1
 16:32
16:56
 48:29
Show details
Prediction details: Maria Carolina Velasquez Soto

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 2–17
Top-10 probability: 50 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 21.3 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 3.4 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:32 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:56 (3:23 / km)
Error: −0:24 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 48:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:04 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 16:32 (3:18 / km)
Total: 48:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 36.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 10 Sian Rainsley
GBR
+30 s
+3 s
G2 / G1
 17:27
17:32
 48:31
Show details
Prediction details: Sian Rainsley

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 6–15
Top-10 probability: 63 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 26.6 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -1.10 %, Sicherheit 82 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:27 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 75 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:32 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 48:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:22 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 17:27 (3:29 / km)
Total: 48:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 20.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 14 Paulina Klimas
POL
+36 s
+25 s
G2 / G1
 17:30
17:33
 48:34
Show details
Prediction details: Paulina Klimas

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 7–24
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 11.3 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 106 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:33 (3:31 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 48:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:39 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:22 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Total: 48:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 8.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 1 Tilda Månsson
SWE
+53 s
+29 s
G3 / G1
 16:41
16:56
 48:38
Show details
Prediction details: Tilda Månsson

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 5–22
Top-10 probability: 34 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 24.2 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: 4.4 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:41 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:56 (3:23 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 48:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:04 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 16:41 (3:20 / km)
Total: 48:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 11.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +41.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 6 Roksana Slupek
POL
+42 s
+9 s
G2 / G1
 17:36
16:59
 48:40
Show details
Prediction details: Roksana Slupek

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 10–26
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 33.0 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:36 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:59 (3:24 / km)
Error: +0:37 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 48:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:22 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 17:36 (3:31 / km)
Total: 48:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 16 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 25 Emma Jeffcoat
AUS
+18 s
+0 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:47
18:20
 48:51
Show details
Prediction details: Emma Jeffcoat

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 4–20
Top-10 probability: 36 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 17.8 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.8 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:47 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:20 (3:40 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 48:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:22 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 17:47 (3:33 / km)
Total: 48:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 7.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 24 Sharon Spimi
ITA
+6 s
+7 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:57
18:42
 48:58
Show details
Prediction details: Sharon Spimi

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 8–19
Top-10 probability: 26 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: -1.0 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 1.81 %, Sicherheit 40 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 11.8 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:42 (3:44 / km)
Error: −0:45 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 48:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:55 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Total: 48:58
16 / 17 Sophia Howell
CAN
+21 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 17:58
17:52
 49:02
Show details
Prediction details: Sophia Howell

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 9–18
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 9:24
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 20.9 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 73 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 7.1 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:58 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 49:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:22 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 17:58 (3:36 / km)
Total: 49:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:17
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 7.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 27 Jaz Hedgeland
AUS
+43 s
+29 s
G3 / G3
correct 		17:09
18:14
 49:06
Show details
Prediction details: Jaz Hedgeland

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 5–20
Top-10 probability: 43 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 9:46
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 13.7 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 140 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:09 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 123 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:14 (3:39 / km)
Error: −1:05 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 49:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:04 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 17:09 (3:26 / km)
Total: 49:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 32.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 11 Tereza Zimovjanova
CZE
+40 s
+6 s
G2 / G1
 18:02
17:33
 49:06
Show details
Prediction details: Tereza Zimovjanova

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 10–27
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:43
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 34.1 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:33 (3:31 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 49:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:22 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Total: 49:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 12.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 16 Charlotte McShane
AUS
+43 s
+36 s
G3 / G1
 17:12
17:52
 49:09
Show details
Prediction details: Charlotte McShane

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 6–25
Top-10 probability: 44 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 9:46
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 7.0 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 131 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 129 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:40 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 49:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:04 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Total: 49:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 33.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 13 Charlotte Derbyshire
AUS
+42 s
+35 s
G3 / G1
 17:18
17:39
 49:15
Show details
Prediction details: Charlotte Derbyshire

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 7–25
Top-10 probability: 25 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 7.4 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:39 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 49:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:04 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Total: 49:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 0.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +41.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 21 Tara Sosinski
AUS
+50 s
+3 s
G3 / G1
 17:28
18:25
 49:25
Show details
Prediction details: Tara Sosinski

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 12–26
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 46.7 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -1.43 %, Sicherheit 69 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.4 s
Gap behind: 3.5 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:28 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Error: −0:57 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 49:25
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:53 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:04 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 17:28 (3:30 / km)
Total: 49:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 39.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 22 Anne Holm
DEN
+28 s
+8 s
G2 / G1
 18:30
18:25
 49:34
Show details
Prediction details: Anne Holm

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 17–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 20.0 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 66 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 60 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.1 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:30 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 49:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:22 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 18:30 (3:42 / km)
Total: 49:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 0.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 19 Zuzana Michalickova
SVK
+44 s
+15 s
G3 / G1
 17:40
17:58
 49:37
Show details
Prediction details: Zuzana Michalickova

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 10–24
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 9:47
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 28.7 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 141 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:40 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 113 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:58 (3:36 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 49:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:04 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 17:40 (3:32 / km)
Total: 49:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 33.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 7 Ellie Hoitink
AUS
+58 s
+26 s
G4 / G1
 16:54
17:12
 49:45
Show details
Prediction details: Ellie Hoitink

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 11–25
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 31.6 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.4 s
Gap behind: 12.0 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:54 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 49:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:42 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 16:54 (3:23 / km)
Total: 49:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 47.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 26 Bridget Theunissen
RSA
+34 s
+34 s
G2 / G1
 18:44
19:49
 49:48
Show details
Prediction details: Bridget Theunissen

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 19–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: -0.1 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:44 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 90 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:49 (3:58 / km)
Error: −1:05 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 49:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:37 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:22 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 18:44 (3:45 / km)
Total: 49:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 9 Romana Gajdošová
SVK
+45 s
+35 s
G3 / G1
 17:57
17:35
 49:54
Show details
Prediction details: Romana Gajdošová

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 11–26
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 9:48
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 9.9 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:35 (3:31 / km)
Error: +0:22 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 49:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:04 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Total: 49:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 35 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 20 Dominika Jamnicky
CAN
+70 s
+31 s
G4 / G1
 17:43
18:05
 50:34
Show details
Prediction details: Dominika Jamnicky

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 18–28
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +70 s
Time: 10:13
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 38.6 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 12.0 s
Gap behind: 4.7 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:43 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:05 (3:37 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 50:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:13 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:42 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 17:43 (3:33 / km)
Total: 50:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 27.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +41.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 15 Richelle Hill
AUS
+94 s
+37 s
G6 / G1
 17:26
17:44
 52:23
Show details
Prediction details: Richelle Hill

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 27–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +94 s
Time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 57.1 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -1.56 %, Sicherheit 45 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 19.8 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:44 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 52:23
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:37 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:23 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Total: 52:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 84.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 29 Tanja Stroschneider
AUT
+74 s
+47 s
G5 / G4
 18:20
18:52
 52:39
Show details
Prediction details: Tanja Stroschneider

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 27–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 27.3 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.7 s
Gap behind: 19.8 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:20 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 106 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:52 (3:46 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 52:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:04 (36.3 km/h)
Run: 18:20 (3:40 / km)
Total: 52:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 64.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.