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Elite Women

03.08.2024 Kilifi KEN
Race information and calculation basis
2024 World Triathlon Development Regional Cup Kilifi

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 03.08.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 42/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 44.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 55.6 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.2
Mean swim error79.4 s
Mean bike-speed error1.56 km/h
Correct bike groups2/5
No history4
Within the 80% range55.6 %
Details
1 / 3 Achouak Terki
ALG
+23 s
+0 s
G1 / G2
 21:28
24:17
 59:38
Show details
Prediction details: Achouak Terki

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 11:44
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 23.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.90 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 72.9 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 28.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:28 (4:18 / km)
Historical basis: 4:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.31 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:17 (4:51 / km)
Error: −2:49 / −0:34 / km
Overall prediction: 59:38
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 11:44 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:47 (31.5 km/h)
Run: 21:28 (4:18 / km)
Total: 59:38
2 / 1 Aisha Nasser Baksh
KEN
+123 s
+30 s
G2 / G2
correct 		21:46
22:04
 1:02:32
Show details
Prediction details: Aisha Nasser Baksh

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +123 s
Time: 13:24
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 93.4 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.64 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 27.5 s
Gap behind: 25.0 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 29.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:46 (4:21 / km)
Historical basis: 4:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:04 (4:25 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:02:32
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:24 (1:47 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 38:43 (30.5 km/h)
Run: 21:46 (4:21 / km)
Total: 1:02:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:48
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
About 96.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 4 Vivian Wairimu Hillier
KEN
+96 s
+189 s
G2 / G3
 23:11
26:18
 1:03:57
Show details
Prediction details: Vivian Wairimu Hillier

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +96 s
Time: 12:57
Pace: 1:44 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +189 s
Fehler: -93.1 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.75 %, Sicherheit 16 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 72.9 s
Gap behind: 27.5 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 28.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:11 (4:38 / km)
Historical basis: 4:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:18 (5:16 / km)
Error: −3:07 / −0:37 / km
Overall prediction: 1:03:57
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:57 (1:44 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 38:43 (30.5 km/h)
Run: 23:11 (4:38 / km)
Total: 1:03:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:48
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
About 69 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 2 Megan Irungu
KEN
+151 s
+15 s
G3 / G1
 22:58
22:58
 1:09:07
Show details
Prediction details: Megan Irungu

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +151 s
Time: 13:52
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 135.9 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 27.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 29.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:58 (4:36 / km)
Historical basis: 4:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:58 (4:36 / km)
Error: +0:00 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:09:07
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:52 (1:51 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 43:38 (27.3 km/h)
Run: 22:58 (4:36 / km)
Total: 1:09:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:35
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
About 137.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 5 Iman Kaiza
KEN
+148 s
+97 s
G3 / G3
correct 		28:36
39:38
 1:14:45
Show details
Prediction details: Iman Kaiza

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +148 s
Time: 13:49
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +97 s
Fehler: 51.4 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 1.48 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 27.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 25.0 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 27.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 28:36 (5:43 / km)
Historical basis: 5:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.93 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:38 (7:56 / km)
Error: −11:02 / −2:12 / km
Overall prediction: 1:14:45
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:49 (1:51 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 43:38 (27.3 km/h)
Run: 28:36 (5:43 / km)
Total: 1:14:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:48
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
About 121.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6 Uwizeye Valentine
RWA
+0 s
+771 s
G0 / G5
24:06
Show details
Prediction details: Uwizeye Valentine

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:21
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +771 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 23.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:06 (4:49 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:21 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Tanya Bravo
MOZ
+0 s
+278 s
G0 / G4
35:31
Show details
Prediction details: Tanya Bravo

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:21
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +278 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 22.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:31 (7:06 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:21 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Salma Rajab
TAN
+0 s
+524 s
G0 / G6
36:56
Show details
Prediction details: Salma Rajab

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:21
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +524 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 21.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:56 (7:23 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:21 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Asha Kombo Khamis
TAN
+0 s
+1034 s
G0 / G7
45:30
Show details
Prediction details: Asha Kombo Khamis

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:21
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1034 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 21.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 45:30 (9:06 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:21 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.