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Qualifier 2 Elite Men

30.03.2024 Lievin FRA
Race information and calculation basis
2024 World Triathlon Indoor Cup Lievin

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 30.03.2024 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 70/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 70.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.2
Mean swim error11.5 s
Mean bike-speed error3.20 km/h
Correct bike groups7/10
No history0
Within the 80% range90.0 %
Details
1 / 1 Antoine Duval
FRA
+11 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		2:43
2:47
 7:08
Show details
Prediction details: Antoine Duval

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 1:57
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 8.7 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 2:43 (2:43 / km)
Historical basis: 2:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:38 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:47 (2:47 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 7:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 1:57 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 4:13 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 2:43 (2:43 / km)
Total: 7:08
2 / 2 Csongor Lehmann
HUN
+4 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		2:54
2:46
 7:19
Show details
Prediction details: Csongor Lehmann

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +4 s
Time: 1:50
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 1.7 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 2:54 (2:54 / km)
Historical basis: 2:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 5
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:46 (2:46 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 7:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 1:50 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 4:13 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 2:54 (2:54 / km)
Total: 7:19
3 / 4 Mitch Kolkman
NED
+10 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		3:02
2:49
 7:27
Show details
Prediction details: Mitch Kolkman

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 1:56
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 9.6 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 3:02 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:49 (2:49 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 7:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 1:56 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 4:13 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 3:02 (3:02 / km)
Total: 7:27
4 / 3 Christopher Perham
GBR
+12 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		3:02
2:49
 7:27
Show details
Prediction details: Christopher Perham

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 1:58
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 9.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 8.0 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 3:02 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:49 (2:49 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 7:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 1:58 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 4:13 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 3:02 (3:02 / km)
Total: 7:27
5 / 6 Sebastian Wernersen
NOR
+9 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		3:06
3:06
 7:31
Show details
Prediction details: Sebastian Wernersen

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 1:55
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 7.2 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.77 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 3:06 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:06 (3:06 / km)
Error: +0:00 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 7:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 1:55 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 4:13 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 3:06 (3:06 / km)
Total: 7:31
6 / 9 Alejandro Rodríguez Rilo
ESP
+11 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		3:21
3:34
 7:46
Show details
Prediction details: Alejandro Rodríguez Rilo

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 7–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 1:57
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 9.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 3:21 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:34 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 7:46
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 1:57 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 4:13 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 3:21 (3:21 / km)
Total: 7:46
7 / 5 Vitalii Vorontsov
UKR
+21 s
+6 s
G2 / G1
 3:02
2:47
 7:48
Show details
Prediction details: Vitalii Vorontsov

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 2:07
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 15.4 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 13.3 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 3:02 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 2:47 (2:47 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 7:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 2:07 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 4:25 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 3:02 (3:02 / km)
Total: 7:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 2:02
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 5.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 7 Victor Goené
NED
+35 s
+6 s
G3 / G1
 2:57
3:16
 7:49
Show details
Prediction details: Victor Goené

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 2–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 2:21
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 28.7 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 13.3 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.91 km/h

Running and total

Run: 2:57 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.78 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:16 (3:16 / km)
Error: −0:19 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 7:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 2:21 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 4:18 (41.9 km/h)
Run: 2:57 (2:57 / km)
Total: 7:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 2:02
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 18.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 10 Mateusz Gluszkowski
POL
+7 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		3:25
3:31
 7:50
Show details
Prediction details: Mateusz Gluszkowski

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 5–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 1:53
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 7.3 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 3:25 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:31 (3:31 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 7:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 1:53 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 4:13 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 3:25 (3:25 / km)
Total: 7:50
10 / 8 Peter Luftensteiner
AUT
+20 s
+2 s
G2 / G1
 3:11
3:21
 7:57
Show details
Prediction details: Peter Luftensteiner

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 2:06
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 18.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.70 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 8.0 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 3:11 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:21 (3:21 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 7:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 2:06 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 4:25 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 3:11 (3:11 / km)
Total: 7:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 2:02
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 4.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.