Prediction comparison

Elite Women

05.10.2025 Hurghada EGY

Race information and calculation basis

2025 Africa Triathlon Aquathlon Cup Hurghada

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 05.10.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 29/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 57.1 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 85.7 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error4.0

Mean swim error55.1 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Elizaveta Polianskaia RUS	+14 s +0 s	Bike DNF	9:40	Show details Prediction details: Elizaveta Polianskaia Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: 14:10 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 13.8 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 25 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 9:40 (3:52 / km) Historical basis: 3:53 / km Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 10:26 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 14:10 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 9:40 (3:52 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Viktoriia Gorina AIN	+17 s +27 s	Bike DNF		Show details Prediction details: Viktoriia Gorina Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +17 s Time: 14:13 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: -9.8 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 10:26 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 14:13 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Elizaveta Syayleva AIN	+20 s +85 s	Bike DNF	9:48	Show details Prediction details: Elizaveta Syayleva Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +20 s Time: 14:16 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +85 s Fehler: -64.6 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 22 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 9:48 (3:55 / km) Historical basis: 4:00 / km Best comparable pace: 4:00 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.88 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 10:05 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 14:16 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 9:48 (3:55 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Ekaterina Budanok AIN	+25 s +54 s	Bike DNF	9:21	Show details Prediction details: Ekaterina Budanok Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 14:21 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +54 s Fehler: -29.5 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 25 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 9:21 (3:44 / km) Historical basis: 3:41 / km Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 1.48 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 11:09 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 14:21 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 9:21 (3:44 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Zeljka Milicic CRO	+70 s +109 s	Bike DNF	19:38	Show details Prediction details: Zeljka Milicic Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +70 s Time: 15:06 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +109 s Fehler: -39.3 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.36 %, Sicherheit 15 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 19:38 (7:51 / km) Historical basis: 7:51 / km Best comparable pace: 7:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 10:24 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 15:06 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 19:38 (7:51 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Lana Gavrilović SRB	+23 s +110 s	Bike DNF	9:25	Show details Prediction details: Lana Gavrilović Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 14:19 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +110 s Fehler: -87.0 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 2.41 %, Sicherheit 36 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 9:25 (3:46 / km) Historical basis: 3:52 / km Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 10 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 11:20 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 14:19 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 9:25 (3:46 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Shahd Walid EGY	+151 s +293 s	Bike DNF	10:45	Show details Prediction details: Shahd Walid Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +151 s Time: 16:27 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +293 s Fehler: -142.0 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.37 %, Sicherheit 36 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 10:45 (4:18 / km) Historical basis: 4:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 1.55 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 11:09 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 16:27 (1:39 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 10:45 (4:18 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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