Prediction comparison

Elite Women

05.04.2025 Nelson Mandela Bay RSA

Race information and calculation basis

2025 Africa Triathlon Championships Nelson Mandela Bay

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 05.04.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 56/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 71.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error0.6

Mean swim error62.0 s

Mean bike-speed error2.38 km/h

Correct bike groups2/7

No history0

Within the 80% range71.4 %

						Details
1 / 1	Shanae Williams RSA	+20 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	37:27 37:21	1:43:13	Show details Prediction details: Shanae Williams Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +20 s Time: 21:17 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 20.0 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 96 % Speed: 36.7 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 15.3 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 34.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.77 km/h Running and total Run: 37:27 (3:45 / km) Historical basis: 3:43 / km Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.79 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:21 (3:44 / km) Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 1:43:13 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:17 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:26 (36.7 km/h) Run: 37:27 (3:45 / km) Total: 1:43:13
2 / 2	Bridget Theunissen RSA	+35 s +43 s	G2 / G1	38:20 39:50	1:49:43	Show details Prediction details: Bridget Theunissen Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: 21:32 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +43 s Fehler: -7.7 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.73 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 54 % Speed: 33.9 km/h Gap ahead: 15.3 s Gap behind: 5.4 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 35.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.40 km/h Running and total Run: 38:20 (3:50 / km) Historical basis: 3:50 / km Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 39:50 (3:59 / km) Error: −1:30 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: 1:49:43 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:32 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:10:48 (33.9 km/h) Run: 38:20 (3:50 / km) Total: 1:49:43 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 21:21 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 11.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 3	Marit Van Den Berg NED	+66 s +132 s	G4 / G2	38:20 42:12	1:53:03	Show details Prediction details: Marit Van Den Berg Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 2–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +66 s Time: 22:03 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +132 s Fehler: -66.4 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.72 %, Sicherheit 9 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 9 % Speed: 32.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 8.4 s Gap behind: 74.9 s Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 35.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.00 km/h Running and total Run: 38:20 (3:50 / km) Historical basis: 3:48 / km Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.75 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 42:12 (4:13 / km) Error: −3:52 / −0:23 / km Overall prediction: 1:53:03 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 22:03 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:13:38 (32.5 km/h) Run: 38:20 (3:50 / km) Total: 1:53:03 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 21:21 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 41.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 6	Imene Maldji ALG	+41 s +145 s	G3 / G3 correct	43:10 43:24	1:56:23	Show details Prediction details: Imene Maldji Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 3–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +41 s Time: 21:38 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +145 s Fehler: -104.3 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 25 % Speed: 33.1 km/h Gap ahead: 5.4 s Gap behind: 16.5 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 32.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.83 km/h Running and total Run: 43:10 (4:19 / km) Historical basis: 4:20 / km Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 43:24 (4:20 / km) Error: −0:14 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 1:56:23 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:38 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:12:32 (33.1 km/h) Run: 43:10 (4:19 / km) Total: 1:56:23 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 21:21 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 16.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 5	Andie Kuipers ZIM	+57 s +125 s	G4 / G2	45:13 45:59	1:59:56	Show details Prediction details: Andie Kuipers Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 4–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +57 s Time: 21:54 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +125 s Fehler: -67.8 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 32.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 16.5 s Gap behind: 8.4 s Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 35.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.98 km/h Running and total Run: 45:13 (4:31 / km) Historical basis: 4:33 / km Best comparable pace: 4:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.76 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 45:59 (4:36 / km) Error: −0:46 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 1:59:56 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:54 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:13:38 (32.5 km/h) Run: 45:13 (4:31 / km) Total: 1:59:56 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 21:21 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 33.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 4	Jordan Tissink RSA	+141 s +142 s	G5 / G2	52:55 42:19	2:15:44	Show details Prediction details: Jordan Tissink Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 6–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +141 s Time: 23:18 Pace: 1:33 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +142 s Fehler: -1.5 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.49 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 29.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 74.9 s Gap behind: 43.9 s Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 35.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.89 km/h Running and total Run: 52:55 (5:18 / km) Historical basis: 5:22 / km Best comparable pace: 5:22 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.29 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 42:19 (4:14 / km) Error: +10:36 / +1:04 / km Overall prediction: 2:15:44 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 23:18 (1:33 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:20:28 (29.8 km/h) Run: 52:55 (5:18 / km) Total: 2:15:44 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 21:21 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 116.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 7	Megan Irungu KEN	+184 s +351 s	G6 / G4	48:17 48:53	2:15:51	Show details Prediction details: Megan Irungu Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 6–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +184 s Time: 24:01 Pace: 1:36 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +351 s Fehler: -166.6 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 28.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 43.9 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 29.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.76 km/h Running and total Run: 48:17 (4:50 / km) Historical basis: 4:48 / km Best comparable pace: 4:40 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 48:53 (4:53 / km) Error: −0:36 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: 2:15:51 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 24:01 (1:36 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:24:29 (28.4 km/h) Run: 48:17 (4:50 / km) Total: 2:15:51 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 21:21 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 160.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

Prediction comparison

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