Prediction comparison
PTWC Men
05.04.2025
Nelson Mandela Bay
RSA
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Africa Triathlon Championships Nelson Mandela Bay
Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 05.04.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.
Prediction model used
Modell v15
Default values
Prediction quality
53/100
niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality
Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.
Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s
Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s
Gruppeneffekt 0.65
Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h
Datenabdeckung 66.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 66.7 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen
Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.
Show methodology
Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.
Prediction comparison
Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.0
Mean swim error426.9 s
Mean bike-speed error1.05 km/h
Correct bike groups1/2
No history1
Within the 80% range100.0 %
| Details | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 / 1 |
Fathi Zwoukhi H1
TUN
|
+189 s
+0 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
12:58
15:47
|
53:26 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +189 s
Time: 16:30
Pace: 2:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 189.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen,
2 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.29 %,
Sicherheit 2 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 32.2 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
155.3 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.45 km/h
Running and totalRun: 12:58 (2:36 / km)
Historical basis: 2:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen,
2 Duelle,
Korrektur 1.45 %,
Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Error: −2:49 / −0:34 / km
Overall prediction: 53:26
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
16:30
(2:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
37:19
(32.2 km/h)
Run:
12:58
(2:36 / km)
Total:
53:26
|
| 2 / 2 |
Eslam Ali H1
EGY
|
+344 s
+1009 s
|
G2 / G3
|
19:47
20:41
|
1:10:34 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 2
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +344 s
Time: 19:05
Pace: 2:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1009 s
Fehler: -664.7 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen,
2 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.29 %,
Sicherheit 2 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 26.6 km/h
Gap ahead:
155.3 s
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 28.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.65 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:47 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 4:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen,
2 Duelle,
Korrektur -1.43 %,
Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:41 (4:08 / km)
Error: −0:54 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:10:34
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
19:05
(2:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
45:03
(26.6 km/h)
Run:
19:47
(3:57 / km)
Total:
1:10:34
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 16:34
Pace: 2:13 / 100 m
About 151.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +192.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 0 / 3 |
Mateus Angula H1
NAM
|
+0 s
+332 s
|
G0 / G2
|
29:00
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation:
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 13:21
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +332 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 26.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:00 (5:48 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming:
13:21
(1:47 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|