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U23 Men

05.04.2025 Nelson Mandela Bay RSA
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Africa Triathlon Championships Nelson Mandela Bay

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 05.04.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 64/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 88.9 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 88.9 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.9
Mean swim error54.0 s
Mean bike-speed error2.30 km/h
Correct bike groups2/9
No history0
Within the 80% range55.6 %
Details
1 / 1 Julian Birkel
RSA
+28 s
+4 s
G1 / G2
 33:07
33:23
 1:35:01
Show details
Prediction details: Julian Birkel

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 18:43
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 24.1 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.8 s
Gap behind: 48.0 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:07 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:23 (3:20 / km)
Error: −0:16 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:01
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:43 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:26 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 33:07 (3:19 / km)
Total: 1:35:01
2 / 3 Zakaria Chtioui
TUN
+0 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		35:14
35:21
 1:37:08
Show details
Prediction details: Zakaria Chtioui

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 18:15
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: -1.0 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 15.8 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:14 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:21 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:15 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:26 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 35:14 (3:31 / km)
Total: 1:37:08
3 / 2 Mohamed Aziz Hamdi
TUN
+16 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		35:34
35:33
 1:37:28
Show details
Prediction details: Mohamed Aziz Hamdi

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 18:31
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 15.8 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 15.8 s
Gap behind: 7.5 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:34 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:33 (3:33 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:31 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:26 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 35:34 (3:33 / km)
Total: 1:37:28
4 / 6 Nico Wood
RSA
+23 s
+59 s
G1 / G4
 38:36
39:22
 1:40:30
Show details
Prediction details: Nico Wood

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 18:38
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +59 s
Fehler: -35.7 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.5 s
Gap behind: 4.8 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:36 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:22 (3:56 / km)
Error: −0:46 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:40:30
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 18:38 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:26 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 38:36 (3:52 / km)
Total: 1:40:30
5 / 4 Matthew Van Coller
RSA
+76 s
+54 s
G2 / G3
 37:35
36:01
 1:46:34
Show details
Prediction details: Matthew Van Coller

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +76 s
Time: 19:31
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: 22.1 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 48.0 s
Gap behind: 35.0 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:35 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 1.57 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:01 (3:36 / km)
Error: +1:34 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:46:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:31 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:07:43 (35.4 km/h)
Run: 37:35 (3:46 / km)
Total: 1:46:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:42
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 48.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 5 Joshua Steytler
RSA
+111 s
+198 s
G3 / G4
 35:53
37:20
 1:47:41
Show details
Prediction details: Joshua Steytler

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +111 s
Time: 20:06
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +198 s
Fehler: -86.9 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 35.0 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:53 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.55 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:20 (3:44 / km)
Error: −1:27 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:47:41
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:06 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:08:50 (35.1 km/h)
Run: 35:53 (3:35 / km)
Total: 1:47:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:42
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 83.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 8 John Paul Makona Stroop
KEN
+112 s
+213 s
G3 / G5
 37:23
37:55
 1:49:11
Show details
Prediction details: John Paul Makona Stroop

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 5–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +112 s
Time: 20:07
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +213 s
Fehler: -101.1 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 66.0 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:23 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:55 (3:48 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:49:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:07 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:08:50 (35.1 km/h)
Run: 37:23 (3:44 / km)
Total: 1:49:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:42
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 84.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 7 Mohamed-Samy Agab
ALG
+178 s
+133 s
G3 / G4
 41:23
42:35
 1:53:11
Show details
Prediction details: Mohamed-Samy Agab

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 8–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +178 s
Time: 21:13
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +133 s
Fehler: 44.9 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.99 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 66.0 s
Gap behind: 13.9 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:23 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 42:35 (4:16 / km)
Error: −1:12 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:53:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:13 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:08:50 (35.1 km/h)
Run: 41:23 (4:08 / km)
Total: 1:53:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:42
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 150.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 9 Joseph Okal
KEN
+192 s
+346 s
G4 / G6
 40:19
39:46
 1:58:44
Show details
Prediction details: Joseph Okal

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 8–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +192 s
Time: 21:27
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +346 s
Fehler: -154.2 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.24 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 13.9 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 29.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:19 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:46 (3:59 / km)
Error: +0:33 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:58:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:27 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:15:14 (31.9 km/h)
Run: 40:19 (4:02 / km)
Total: 1:58:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:42
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 164.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.