Zum Inhalt springen
Performance Workspace
Predicition
Live data
Prediction comparison

U23 Women

05.04.2025 Nelson Mandela Bay RSA
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Africa Triathlon Championships Nelson Mandela Bay

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 05.04.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 70/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.0
Mean swim error57.7 s
Mean bike-speed error1.94 km/h
Correct bike groups1/2
No history0
Within the 80% range100.0 %
Details
1 / 1 Andie Kuipers
ZIM
+38 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		45:16
45:59
 2:00:06
Show details
Prediction details: Andie Kuipers

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 23:34
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 38.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 32.3 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 110.7 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 45:16 (4:32 / km)
Historical basis: 4:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.67 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 45:59 (4:36 / km)
Error: −0:43 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 2:00:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 23:34 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:14:12 (32.3 km/h)
Run: 45:16 (4:32 / km)
Total: 2:00:06
2 / 2 Megan Irungu
KEN
+149 s
+226 s
G2 / G3
 48:17
48:53
 2:15:04
Show details
Prediction details: Megan Irungu

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +149 s
Time: 25:25
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +226 s
Fehler: -77.3 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 28.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 110.7 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 29.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 48:17 (4:50 / km)
Historical basis: 4:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 48:53 (4:53 / km)
Error: −0:36 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 2:15:04
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 25:25 (1:42 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:24:19 (28.5 km/h)
Run: 48:17 (4:50 / km)
Total: 2:15:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 23:38
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
About 106.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +41.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.