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Elite Men

12.10.2025 Kilifi KEN
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Africa Triathlon Cup Kilifi

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 12.10.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 61/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 82.6 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 91.3 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.0
Mean swim error148.5 s
Mean bike-speed error3.45 km/h
Correct bike groups2/22
No history1
Within the 80% range52.2 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Zsombor Dévay
HUN
+28 s
+1 s
G2 / G1
 15:32
15:24
 45:16
Show details
Prediction details: Zsombor Dévay

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:30
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 27.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 22 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:32 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:24 (3:05 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 45:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:13 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 15:32 (3:06 / km)
Total: 45:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 22.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 1 Peter Luftensteiner
AUT
+19 s
+10 s
G2 / G1
 15:46
15:20
 45:30
Show details
Prediction details: Peter Luftensteiner

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 9.3 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 32 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:46 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:20 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 45:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:13 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 15:46 (3:09 / km)
Total: 45:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 14.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 7 Hokuto Obara
JPN
+31 s
+3 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:49
16:38
 45:33
Show details
Prediction details: Hokuto Obara

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–10
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 27.6 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 64 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 5.4 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 40 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Error: −0:49 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 45:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:13 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Total: 45:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 25.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 11 Mitsuho Mochizuki
JPN
+1 s
+2 s
G1 / G4
 16:34
17:23
 45:40
Show details
Prediction details: Mitsuho Mochizuki

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–10
Top-10 probability: 93 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +1 s
Time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: -0.7 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 67 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 10.4 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:34 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 47 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:23 (3:29 / km)
Error: −0:49 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 45:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:04 (41.3 km/h)
Run: 16:34 (3:19 / km)
Total: 45:40
5 / 3 Philip Pertl
AUT
+36 s
+18 s
G3 / G1
 15:39
15:33
 45:55
Show details
Prediction details: Philip Pertl

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–12
Top-10 probability: 81 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 18.0 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 51 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.4 s
Gap behind: 7.6 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:33 (3:07 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 45:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:40 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Total: 45:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 30.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 4 Lukas Meckel
GER
+26 s
+13 s
G2 / G1
 16:19
15:45
 46:03
Show details
Prediction details: Lukas Meckel

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 3–12
Top-10 probability: 75 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 13.1 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.2 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:19 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:45 (3:09 / km)
Error: +0:34 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 46:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:13 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 16:19 (3:16 / km)
Total: 46:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 18.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 12 Tomer Shapira
ISR
+16 s
+65 s
G2 / G5
 16:20
17:36
 46:04
Show details
Prediction details: Tomer Shapira

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 93 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 9:18
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: -49.4 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 14 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 3.4 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 33.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:20 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:36 (3:31 / km)
Error: −1:16 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 46:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:13 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 16:20 (3:16 / km)
Total: 46:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 10.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 6 Badr Siwane
MAR
+12 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 16:23
16:54
 46:07
Show details
Prediction details: Badr Siwane

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 3–11
Top-10 probability: 79 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 11.7 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 85 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.4 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:23 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:54 (3:23 / km)
Error: −0:31 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 46:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:13 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 16:23 (3:17 / km)
Total: 46:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 6.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 8 Itamar Levanon
ISR
+44 s
+30 s
G4 / G3
 15:35
16:02
 46:09
Show details
Prediction details: Itamar Levanon

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 2–12
Top-10 probability: 75 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 9:46
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 13.6 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 56 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.6 s
Gap behind: 4.6 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:35 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:02 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 46:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:50 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 15:35 (3:07 / km)
Total: 46:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 38.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 5 Tim Semmler
GER
+22 s
+1 s
G2 / G1
 16:31
16:17
 46:15
Show details
Prediction details: Tim Semmler

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 6–10
Top-10 probability: 93 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:24
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 20.9 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 52 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 4.2 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:31 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:17 (3:15 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 46:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:13 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 16:31 (3:18 / km)
Total: 46:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 14.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 10 Aiden Petersen
RSA
+19 s
+4 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:18
17:35
 47:02
Show details
Prediction details: Aiden Petersen

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 10–13
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 15.0 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 56 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.4 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 50 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:35 (3:31 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 47:02
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:13 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Total: 47:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 13.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 9 Rintaro Kuramoto
JPN
+48 s
+17 s
G5 / G2
 16:47
15:25
 49:22
Show details
Prediction details: Rintaro Kuramoto

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 10–14
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 31.2 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.6 s
Gap behind: 24.2 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:25 (3:05 / km)
Error: +1:22 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 49:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:47 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Total: 49:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 43 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 14 John Paul Makona Stroop
KEN
+74 s
+172 s
G6 / G8
 18:01
19:41
 57:18
Show details
Prediction details: John Paul Makona Stroop

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 14–15
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +172 s
Fehler: -97.6 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.73 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 74.5 s
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 32.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.90 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:41 (3:56 / km)
Error: −1:40 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 57:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 38:02 (31.5 km/h)
Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Total: 57:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 69.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 13 Chad Uys
RSA
+72 s
+129 s
G6 / G7
 18:45
19:09
 58:02
Show details
Prediction details: Chad Uys

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 13–15
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +72 s
Time: 10:14
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +129 s
Fehler: -56.6 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.11 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 24.2 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:45 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:09 (3:50 / km)
Error: −0:24 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 58:02
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 38:02 (31.5 km/h)
Run: 18:45 (3:45 / km)
Total: 58:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 67.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 15 Trevor K. Mwamisi
KEN
+149 s
+186 s
G7 / G8
 21:13
21:52
 1:01:57
Show details
Prediction details: Trevor K. Mwamisi

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 16–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +149 s
Time: 11:31
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +186 s
Fehler: -37.1 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -1.04 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 74.5 s
Gap behind: 29.2 s
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:13 (4:15 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 1.71 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:52 (4:22 / km)
Error: −0:39 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:01:57
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:31 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 38:15 (31.4 km/h)
Run: 21:13 (4:15 / km)
Total: 1:01:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 143.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 17 Abubakar Saleh
KEN
+334 s
+593 s
G9 / G10
 21:23
22:26
 1:06:24
Show details
Prediction details: Abubakar Saleh

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 17–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +334 s
Time: 14:36
Pace: 1:57 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +593 s
Fehler: -259.4 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 20 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 9 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 23.4 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 32.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:23 (4:17 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:26 (4:29 / km)
Error: −1:03 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:06:24
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 14:36 (1:57 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:08 (30.5 km/h)
Run: 21:23 (4:17 / km)
Total: 1:06:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 328.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 16 Samuel Nderitu
KEN
+178 s
+324 s
G8 / G9
 22:46
21:29
 1:06:29
Show details
Prediction details: Samuel Nderitu

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 17–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +178 s
Time: 12:00
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +324 s
Fehler: -145.9 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 8 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 29.2 s
Gap behind: 132.1 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 30.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:46 (4:33 / km)
Historical basis: 4:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.69 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:29 (4:18 / km)
Error: +1:17 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:06:29
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 12:00 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 40:45 (29.4 km/h)
Run: 22:46 (4:33 / km)
Total: 1:06:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 172.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 18 Robert Robin
KEN
+310 s
+469 s
G9 / G11
 22:59
20:34
 1:08:00
Show details
Prediction details: Robert Robin

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 18–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +310 s
Time: 14:12
Pace: 1:54 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +469 s
Fehler: -158.8 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.21 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 9 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 132.1 s
Gap behind: 23.4 s
Result: Group 11 (2 people)
Speed: 29.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:59 (4:36 / km)
Historical basis: 4:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:34 (4:07 / km)
Error: +2:25 / +0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 1:08:00
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 14:12 (1:54 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:08 (30.5 km/h)
Run: 22:59 (4:36 / km)
Total: 1:08:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 305 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 22 Kiugu Kingori
KEN
+353 s
+486 s
G9 / G14
 24:52
25:03
 1:09:53
Show details
Prediction details: Kiugu Kingori

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 19–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +353 s
Time: 14:55
Pace: 1:59 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +486 s
Fehler: -132.8 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 20 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 9 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 18.0 s
Gap behind: 179.5 s
Result: Group 14 (1 people)
Speed: 19.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 10.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 24:52 (4:58 / km)
Historical basis: 4:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:03 (5:01 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:09:53
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:55 (1:59 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:08 (30.5 km/h)
Run: 24:52 (4:58 / km)
Total: 1:09:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 348 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 21 Gavin Ojal
KEN
+533 s
+786 s
G10 / G13
 26:10
25:55
 1:17:41
Show details
Prediction details: Gavin Ojal

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 21–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +533 s
Time: 17:55
Pace: 2:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +786 s
Fehler: -253.3 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.16 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 10 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 28.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 13, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 179.5 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 13 (1 people)
Speed: 26.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 26:10 (5:14 / km)
Historical basis: 5:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:55 (5:11 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:17:41
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 17:55 (2:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 42:38 (28.1 km/h)
Run: 26:10 (5:14 / km)
Total: 1:17:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 527.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 19 Hamza Bashir
KEN
+335 s
+645 s
G9 / G12
 33:02
20:46
 1:18:03
Show details
Prediction details: Hamza Bashir

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 21–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +335 s
Time: 14:37
Pace: 1:57 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +645 s
Fehler: -309.8 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.70 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 9 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 18.0 s
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 30.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:02 (6:36 / km)
Historical basis: 6:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:46 (4:09 / km)
Error: +12:16 / +2:27 / km
Overall prediction: 1:18:03
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 14:37 (1:57 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:08 (30.5 km/h)
Run: 33:02 (6:36 / km)
Total: 1:18:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 330 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 20 Ismael Mungai
KEN
+0 s
+468 s
G0 / G11
24:28
Show details
Prediction details: Ismael Mungai

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 23–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +468 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 11 (2 people)
Speed: 29.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:28 (4:54 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 23 Joel Ouma
KEN
+0 s
+1579 s
G1 / G15
29:57
Show details
Prediction details: Joel Ouma

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1579 s
Fehler: -1,579.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 15 (1 people)
Speed: 25.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 16.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:57 (5:59 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:04 (41.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable