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Elite Women

12.10.2025 Kilifi KEN
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Africa Triathlon Cup Kilifi

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 12.10.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 70/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.0
Mean swim error44.2 s
Mean bike-speed error2.83 km/h
Correct bike groups3/6
No history0
Within the 80% range83.3 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Finja Schierl
GER
+18 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:27
18:38
 50:32
Show details
Prediction details: Finja Schierl

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 16.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.97 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 7.4 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:27 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:38 (3:44 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 50:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:40 (37.9 km/h)
Run: 18:27 (3:41 / km)
Total: 50:32
2 / 3 Himeka Sato
JPN
+25 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:35
18:46
 50:40
Show details
Prediction details: Himeka Sato

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 24.4 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.4 s
Gap behind: 34.8 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:35 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:46 (3:45 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 50:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:10 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:40 (37.9 km/h)
Run: 18:35 (3:43 / km)
Total: 50:40
3 / 4 Minori Ikeno
JPN
+16 s
+4 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:40
21:21
 51:45
Show details
Prediction details: Minori Ikeno

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 11.7 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 60 %
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:40 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 4:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:21 (4:16 / km)
Error: −1:41 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 51:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:40 (37.9 km/h)
Run: 19:40 (3:56 / km)
Total: 51:45
4 / 1 Genesis Carolina Ruiz Volcan
VEN
+60 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 18:49
18:30
 53:27
Show details
Prediction details: Genesis Carolina Ruiz Volcan

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 10:45
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 60.2 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.76 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 34.8 s
Gap behind: 87.6 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.95 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:30 (3:42 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 53:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:45 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:38 (35.7 km/h)
Run: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Total: 53:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 38.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 5 Megan Irungu
KEN
+148 s
+215 s
G3 / G2
 25:02
23:29
 1:10:08
Show details
Prediction details: Megan Irungu

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +148 s
Time: 12:13
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +215 s
Fehler: -67.2 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 28.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 87.6 s
Gap behind: 82.6 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 29.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:02 (5:00 / km)
Historical basis: 5:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:29 (4:42 / km)
Error: +1:33 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 1:10:08
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:13 (1:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 42:38 (28.1 km/h)
Run: 25:02 (5:00 / km)
Total: 1:10:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 125.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 6 Iman Kaiza
KEN
+230 s
+316 s
G4 / G3
 29:32
31:41
 1:18:53
Show details
Prediction details: Iman Kaiza

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +230 s
Time: 13:35
Pace: 1:49 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +316 s
Fehler: -85.6 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 26.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 82.6 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 25.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 29:32 (5:54 / km)
Historical basis: 5:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:49 / km
Trend: −0:06 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:41 (6:20 / km)
Error: −2:09 / −0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 1:18:53
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:35 (1:49 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 45:30 (26.4 km/h)
Run: 29:32 (5:54 / km)
Total: 1:18:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 208.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.