Prediction comparison

Elite Men

13.09.2025 Oran ALG

Race information and calculation basis

2025 Africa Triathlon Cup Oran

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 13.09.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 63/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 87.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 95.7 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.4

Mean swim error18.0 s

Mean bike-speed error3.50 km/h

Correct bike groups6/22

No history1

Within the 80% range60.9 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 8	Andres Gras CHI	+26 s +26 s	G1 / G2	15:23 16:09	43:54	Show details Prediction details: Andres Gras Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 1–6 Top-10 probability: 99 % Result: 8 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +26 s Time: 9:12 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: -0.3 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 25 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 63 % Speed: 43.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 2 (6 people) Speed: 46.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.43 km/h Running and total Run: 15:23 (3:05 / km) Historical basis: 3:08 / km Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 25 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:09 (3:14 / km) Error: −0:46 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: 43:54 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (43.0 km/h) Run: 15:23 (3:05 / km) Total: 43:54
2 / 5	Jaspar Ortfeld GER	+42 s +26 s	G3 / G2	14:57 15:40	43:58	Show details Prediction details: Jaspar Ortfeld Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 1–6 Top-10 probability: 98 % Result: 5 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +42 s Time: 9:28 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: 16.1 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 89 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 26 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.7 s Gap behind: 2.2 s Result: Group 2 (6 people) Speed: 46.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.64 km/h Running and total Run: 14:57 (2:59 / km) Historical basis: 3:02 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 88 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:40 (3:08 / km) Error: −0:43 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: 43:58 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:16 (42.5 km/h) Run: 14:57 (2:59 / km) Total: 43:58 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
3 / 1	Lukas Pertl AUT	+27 s +7 s	G1 / G1 correct	15:28 15:55	43:59	Show details Prediction details: Lukas Pertl Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 1–8 Top-10 probability: 95 % Result: 1 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 9:13 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +7 s Fehler: 20.4 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 37 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 55 % Speed: 43.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 1.9 s Result: Group 1 (9 people) Speed: 47.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.16 km/h Running and total Run: 15:28 (3:06 / km) Historical basis: 3:10 / km Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 31 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:55 (3:11 / km) Error: −0:27 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: 43:59 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (43.0 km/h) Run: 15:28 (3:06 / km) Total: 43:59
4 / 10	Carol Popa ROU	+35 s +7 s	G1 / G2	15:34 16:12	44:05	Show details Prediction details: Carol Popa Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 2–14 Top-10 probability: 75 % Result: 10 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +7 s Fehler: 27.5 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -1.29 %, Sicherheit 17 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 38 % Speed: 43.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 2.1 s Result: Group 2 (6 people) Speed: 45.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.64 km/h Running and total Run: 15:34 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:06 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 16 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:12 (3:14 / km) Error: −0:38 / −0:08 / km Overall prediction: 44:05 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (43.0 km/h) Run: 15:34 (3:07 / km) Total: 44:05
5 / 4	Luke McCarron IRL	+29 s +4 s	G1 / G1 correct	16:03 16:28	44:34	Show details Prediction details: Luke McCarron Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 3–11 Top-10 probability: 89 % Result: 4 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 9:15 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +4 s Fehler: 25.3 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 45 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 49 % Speed: 43.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.9 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 1 (9 people) Speed: 47.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.16 km/h Running and total Run: 16:03 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:10 / km Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 1.26 %, Sicherheit 29 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:28 (3:18 / km) Error: −0:25 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 44:34 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (43.0 km/h) Run: 16:03 (3:13 / km) Total: 44:34
6 / 6	Kamil Kulik POL	+45 s +27 s	G3 / G2	15:34 15:58	44:35	Show details Prediction details: Kamil Kulik Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 1–16 Top-10 probability: 68 % Result: 6 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +45 s Time: 9:31 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: 18.3 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 53 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 13 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 7.1 s Result: Group 2 (6 people) Speed: 46.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.67 km/h Running and total Run: 15:34 (3:07 / km) Historical basis: 3:09 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 52 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:58 (3:12 / km) Error: −0:24 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 44:35 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:16 (42.5 km/h) Run: 15:34 (3:07 / km) Total: 44:35 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
7 / 7	Jan Semmler GER	+23 s +4 s	G1 / G1 correct	16:08 17:03	44:39	Show details Prediction details: Jan Semmler Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 4–9 Top-10 probability: 98 % Result: 7 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 9:09 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +4 s Fehler: 19.3 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 31 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 78 % Speed: 43.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.2 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 1 (9 people) Speed: 47.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.38 km/h Running and total Run: 16:08 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:13 / km Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 31 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:03 (3:25 / km) Error: −0:55 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: 44:39 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (43.0 km/h) Run: 16:08 (3:14 / km) Total: 44:39
8 / 13	Mitsuho Mochizuki JPN	+15 s +1 s	G2 / G1	16:11 17:29	44:44	Show details Prediction details: Mitsuho Mochizuki Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 4–9 Top-10 probability: 98 % Result: 13 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +15 s Time: 9:01 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1 s Fehler: 14.0 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 10 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 86 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 11.0 s Gap behind: 1.1 s Result: Group 1 (9 people) Speed: 47.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.64 km/h Running and total Run: 16:11 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:13 / km Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.83 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:29 (3:30 / km) Error: −1:18 / −0:16 / km Overall prediction: 44:44 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:17 (42.5 km/h) Run: 16:11 (3:14 / km) Total: 44:44 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:58 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m About 3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +12 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 2	Gültigin Er TUR	+25 s +3 s	G1 / G1 correct	16:20 16:23	44:51	Show details Prediction details: Gültigin Er Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 1–15 Top-10 probability: 63 % Result: 2 Deviation: 7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +3 s Fehler: 21.5 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 59 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 79 % Speed: 43.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 1 (9 people) Speed: 47.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.16 km/h Running and total Run: 16:20 (3:16 / km) Historical basis: 3:16 / km Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 50 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:23 (3:17 / km) Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 44:51 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (43.0 km/h) Run: 16:20 (3:16 / km) Total: 44:51
10 / 12	Peter Rojtas SVK	+45 s +25 s	G3 / G2	16:00 16:33	45:01	Show details Prediction details: Peter Rojtas Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 5–12 Top-10 probability: 76 % Result: 12 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +45 s Time: 9:31 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +25 s Fehler: 19.9 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 64 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 16 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 2 (6 people) Speed: 46.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.93 km/h Running and total Run: 16:00 (3:12 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.76 %, Sicherheit 58 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:33 (3:19 / km) Error: −0:33 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 45:01 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:16 (42.5 km/h) Run: 16:00 (3:12 / km) Total: 45:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
11 / 9	Tim Semmler GER	+16 s +7 s	G2 / G1	16:29 16:59	45:02	Show details Prediction details: Tim Semmler Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 6–11 Top-10 probability: 83 % Result: 9 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +16 s Time: 9:02 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +7 s Fehler: 9.1 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 27 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 86 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.1 s Gap behind: 5.0 s Result: Group 1 (9 people) Speed: 47.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.76 km/h Running and total Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 26 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:59 (3:24 / km) Error: −0:30 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: 45:02 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:17 (42.5 km/h) Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km) Total: 45:02 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 8:54 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m About 8.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 16	Jan Chrzanowski POL	+27 s +31 s	G1 / G3	16:36 17:30	45:07	Show details Prediction details: Jan Chrzanowski Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 8–13 Top-10 probability: 45 % Result: 16 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 9:13 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +31 s Fehler: -4.0 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 20 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 53 % Speed: 43.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 44.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.08 km/h Running and total Run: 16:36 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:16 / km Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 1.77 %, Sicherheit 18 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:30 (3:30 / km) Error: −0:54 / −0:11 / km Overall prediction: 45:07 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (43.0 km/h) Run: 16:36 (3:19 / km) Total: 45:07
13 / 11	Enes Kizilcik TUR	+34 s +2 s	G1 / G1 correct	16:54 17:09	45:25	Show details Prediction details: Enes Kizilcik Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 10–13 Top-10 probability: 14 % Result: 11 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +34 s Time: 9:20 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +2 s Fehler: 32.4 s H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 80 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 30 % Speed: 43.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.9 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 1 (9 people) Speed: 47.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.13 km/h Running and total Run: 16:54 (3:23 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 73 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:09 (3:26 / km) Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 45:25 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:20 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (43.0 km/h) Run: 16:54 (3:23 / km) Total: 45:25
14 / 14	Mateusz Gluszkowski POL	+4 s +0 s	G2 / G1	17:31 18:46	46:04	Show details Prediction details: Mateusz Gluszkowski Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 12–15 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 14 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +4 s Time: 8:50 Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 4.0 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 38 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 89 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 11.0 s Result: Group 1 (9 people) Speed: 47.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.73 km/h Running and total Run: 17:31 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:28 / km Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 1.04 %, Sicherheit 30 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:46 (3:45 / km) Error: −1:15 / −0:15 / km Overall prediction: 46:04 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 8:50 (1:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:17 (42.5 km/h) Run: 17:31 (3:30 / km) Total: 46:04 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
15 / 15	Taha Eren Coşgun TUR	+25 s +4 s	G1 / G2	17:34 18:06	46:05	Show details Prediction details: Taha Eren Coşgun Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 13–16 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 15 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 9:11 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +4 s Fehler: 20.8 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 15 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 60 % Speed: 43.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 2 (6 people) Speed: 45.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.61 km/h Running and total Run: 17:34 (3:31 / km) Historical basis: 3:31 / km Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 14 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:06 (3:37 / km) Error: −0:32 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: 46:05 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (43.0 km/h) Run: 17:34 (3:31 / km) Total: 46:05
16 / 21	Oussama Berrouane ALG	+40 s +61 s	G3 / G5	17:46 18:02	46:47	Show details Prediction details: Oussama Berrouane Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 15–19 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 21 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 9:26 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +61 s Fehler: -20.6 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 25 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 13 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.8 s Gap behind: 1.7 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 42.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.37 km/h Running and total Run: 17:46 (3:33 / km) Historical basis: 3:35 / km Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km Trend: −0:01 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 21 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:02 (3:36 / km) Error: −0:16 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 46:47 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:16 (42.5 km/h) Run: 17:46 (3:33 / km) Total: 46:47 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
17 / 3	Lukas Meckel GER	+44 s +0 s	G3 / G1	17:49 16:23	46:50	Show details Prediction details: Lukas Meckel Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 15–19 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: 14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +44 s Time: 9:30 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 44.3 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -1.58 %, Sicherheit 49 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 15 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.2 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 1 (9 people) Speed: 47.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.75 km/h Running and total Run: 17:49 (3:34 / km) Historical basis: 3:35 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 43 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:23 (3:17 / km) Error: +1:26 / +0:17 / km Overall prediction: 46:50 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:16 (42.5 km/h) Run: 17:49 (3:34 / km) Total: 46:50 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
18 / 23	Sebastian Grassewitz GER	+21 s +33 s	G1 / G4	18:34 19:46	47:05	Show details Prediction details: Sebastian Grassewitz Placement Prediction: 18 80% range: 16–20 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 23 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +21 s Time: 9:07 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +33 s Fehler: -11.9 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 73 % Speed: 43.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.0 s Gap behind: 2.2 s Result: Group 4 (5 people) Speed: 42.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.53 km/h Running and total Run: 18:34 (3:43 / km) Historical basis: 3:42 / km Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:46 (3:57 / km) Error: −1:12 / −0:14 / km Overall prediction: 47:05 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (43.0 km/h) Run: 18:34 (3:43 / km) Total: 47:05
19 / 18	Emir Aracı TUR	+31 s +29 s	G1 / G4	18:41 17:37	47:12	Show details Prediction details: Emir Aracı Placement Prediction: 19 80% range: 17–21 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 18 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +31 s Time: 9:17 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +29 s Fehler: 1.5 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 13 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (11 people) Gruppe 1: 41 % Speed: 43.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 3.9 s Result: Group 4 (5 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.78 km/h Running and total Run: 18:41 (3:44 / km) Historical basis: 3:42 / km Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.77 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:37 (3:31 / km) Error: +1:04 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: 47:12 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:56 (43.0 km/h) Run: 18:41 (3:44 / km) Total: 47:12
20 / 22	Burak Cağdaş TUR	+37 s +25 s	G3 / G4	18:13 18:39	47:14	Show details Prediction details: Burak Cağdaş Placement Prediction: 20 80% range: 16–21 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 22 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 9:23 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +25 s Fehler: 11.6 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 14 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 39 % Speed: 42.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.1 s Gap behind: 3.8 s Result: Group 4 (5 people) Speed: 42.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.43 km/h Running and total Run: 18:13 (3:39 / km) Historical basis: 3:40 / km Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.83 %, Sicherheit 13 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:39 (3:44 / km) Error: −0:26 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: 47:14 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:16 (42.5 km/h) Run: 18:13 (3:39 / km) Total: 47:14 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
21 / 20	Adel Rabir ALG	+52 s +28 s	G4 / G4 correct	18:24 18:04	52:30	Show details Prediction details: Adel Rabir Placement Prediction: 21 80% range: 19–21 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 20 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +52 s Time: 9:38 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +28 s Fehler: 24.4 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 22 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 36.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 7.1 s Gap behind: 6.1 s Result: Group 4 (5 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -6.08 km/h Running and total Run: 18:24 (3:41 / km) Historical basis: 3:41 / km Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:04 (3:37 / km) Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 52:30 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:07 (36.1 km/h) Run: 18:24 (3:41 / km) Total: 52:30 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 32 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 17	Tymon Horsten POL	+59 s +29 s	G4 / G3	30:47 18:19	1:04:53	Show details Prediction details: Tymon Horsten Placement Prediction: 22 80% range: 22–22 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 17 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +59 s Time: 9:45 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +29 s Fehler: 29.5 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 17 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 8 % Speed: 36.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.1 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 44.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -7.94 km/h Running and total Run: 30:47 (6:09 / km) Historical basis: 6:19 / km Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 21 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:19 (3:40 / km) Error: +12:28 / +2:30 / km Overall prediction: 1:04:53 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:07 (36.1 km/h) Run: 30:47 (6:09 / km) Total: 1:04:53 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 23.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +35 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 19	Naim Mokhfi ALG	+0 s +3 s	G0 / G4	18:02		Show details Prediction details: Naim Mokhfi Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 23–23 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 19 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 8:46 Pace: 1:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +3 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (5 people) Speed: 41.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:02 (3:36 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 8:46 (1:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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