Zum Inhalt springen
Performance Workspace
Predicition
Live data
Prediction comparison

Elite Women

22.01.2025 Swakopmund Mole NAM
Race information and calculation basis
2025 Africa Triathlon Cup Swakopmund

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 22.01.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 70/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 83.3 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.7
Mean swim error20.7 s
Mean bike-speed error2.78 km/h
Correct bike groups1/6
No history0
Within the 80% range66.7 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Rachel Klamer
NED
+27 s
+4 s
G2 / G1
 16:48
16:49
 49:33
Show details
Prediction details: Rachel Klamer

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 22.9 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 15.8 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 32.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:48 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:49 (3:22 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 49:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:18 (36.9 km/h)
Run: 16:48 (3:22 / km)
Total: 49:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 6.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 3 Finja Schierl
GER
+25 s
+9 s
G2 / G1
 18:40
17:57
 51:25
Show details
Prediction details: Finja Schierl

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 15.6 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 8.6 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 32.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:40 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Error: +0:43 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 51:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:18 (36.9 km/h)
Run: 18:40 (3:44 / km)
Total: 51:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
3 / 4 Kanae Takenaka
JPN
+16 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:45
18:32
 51:26
Show details
Prediction details: Kanae Takenaka

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 16.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 79 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 8.6 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 32.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:45 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:32 (3:42 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 51:26
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:25 (36.8 km/h)
Run: 18:45 (3:45 / km)
Total: 51:26
4 / 2 Bridget Theunissen
RSA
+43 s
+1 s
G3 / G1
 18:59
17:26
 54:45
Show details
Prediction details: Bridget Theunissen

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 41.7 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 15.8 s
Gap behind: 69.9 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 32.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:59 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Error: +1:33 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 54:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:03 (34.0 km/h)
Run: 18:59 (3:48 / km)
Total: 54:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 11.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 5 Anri Krugel
NAM
+113 s
+93 s
G4 / G2
 19:16
19:37
 59:57
Show details
Prediction details: Anri Krugel

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +113 s
Time: 11:33
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +93 s
Fehler: 19.6 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.31 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 69.9 s
Gap behind: 82.1 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 31.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:16 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:37 (3:55 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 59:57
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:33 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 38:49 (30.7 km/h)
Run: 19:16 (3:51 / km)
Total: 59:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 81.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 6 Josette Umi Njeri Kiarie
KEN
+195 s
+203 s
G5 / G3
 27:35
28:30
 1:12:26
Show details
Prediction details: Josette Umi Njeri Kiarie

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +195 s
Time: 12:55
Pace: 1:43 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +203 s
Fehler: -8.3 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.99 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 28.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 82.1 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 28.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 27:35 (5:31 / km)
Historical basis: 5:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 1.68 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:30 (5:42 / km)
Error: −0:55 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:12:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:55 (1:43 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 41:36 (28.7 km/h)
Run: 27:35 (5:31 / km)
Total: 1:12:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 163.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +30.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.