Prediction comparison

Junior Men

27.09.2025 El Galala EGY

Race information and calculation basis

2025 Africa Triathlon Duathlon Championships El Galala

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 27.09.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 6/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 12.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 75.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.5

Mean bike-speed error32.86 km/h

Correct bike groups0/0

No history2

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Omar Othmane Goumghar MAR	+69 s	G0 / G1	17:27	Show details Prediction details: Omar Othmane Goumghar Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +69 s Time: Pace: 1:25 / 100 m H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 35.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -35.63 km/h Running and total Run: 17:27 (3:29 / km) Historical basis: 3:29 / km Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 23 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:25 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 17:27 (3:29 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Ibrahim Mahmoud EGY	+41 s	G0 / G2	18:36	Show details Prediction details: Ibrahim Mahmoud Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +41 s Time: Pace: 0:42 / 100 m H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 32.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -32.32 km/h Running and total Run: 18:36 (3:43 / km) Historical basis: 3:38 / km Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:38 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 18:36 (3:43 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Abdelaziz Sobhy EGY	+39 s	G0 / G2	36:07	Show details Prediction details: Abdelaziz Sobhy Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +39 s Time: Pace: 0:42 / 100 m H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 32.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -32.67 km/h Running and total Run: 36:07 (7:13 / km) Historical basis: 7:24 / km Best comparable pace: 7:24 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:07 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 36:07 (7:13 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Dexter Button UAE	+118 s	G0 / G2	20:14	Show details Prediction details: Dexter Button Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +118 s Time: Pace: 1:31 / 100 m H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 32.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -32.94 km/h Running and total Run: 20:14 (4:03 / km) Historical basis: 4:03 / km Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 23 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:16 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 20:14 (4:03 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Karim Mostafa EGY	+86 s	G0 / G3	18:06	Show details Prediction details: Karim Mostafa Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +86 s Time: Pace: 1:27 / 100 m H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 32.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -31.96 km/h Running and total Run: 18:06 (3:37 / km) Historical basis: 3:37 / km Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 23 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:32 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 18:06 (3:37 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Eslam Mohamad EGY	+118 s	G0 / G4	18:41	Show details Prediction details: Eslam Mohamad Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +118 s Time: Pace: 1:31 / 100 m H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 31.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -31.63 km/h Running and total Run: 18:41 (3:44 / km) Historical basis: 3:44 / km Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 23 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:29 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 18:41 (3:44 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Sofian Mostafa EGY	+0 s	G0 / G5		Show details Prediction details: Sofian Mostafa Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 28.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:03 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Tarek Haragy EGY	+0 s	G0 / G6		Show details Prediction details: Tarek Haragy Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 27.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:46 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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