Prediction comparison

U23 Men

27.09.2025 El Galala EGY

Race information and calculation basis

2025 Africa Triathlon Duathlon Championships El Galala

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 27.09.2025 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 10/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 20.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error2.8

Mean bike-speed error29.58 km/h

Correct bike groups0/0

No history1

					Details
0 / 1	Abdelrahman Tantish PLE	+61 s	G0 / G1	17:03	Show details Prediction details: Abdelrahman Tantish Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +61 s Time: Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 34.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -34.47 km/h Running and total Run: 17:03 (3:25 / km) Historical basis: 3:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km Trend: −0:01 / km Comparable races: 4 Ergebnis Lauf: 15:33 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 17:03 (3:25 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Ibrahim Aly EGY	+144 s	G0 / G2		Show details Prediction details: Ibrahim Aly Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +144 s Time: Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 32.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -32.30 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 16:38 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Ziad Mohamed EGY	+182 s	G0 / G3		Show details Prediction details: Ziad Mohamed Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +182 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 28.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -28.67 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:50 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Abdelrahman Waleed EGY	+0 s	G0 / G4		Show details Prediction details: Abdelrahman Waleed Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 27.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:32 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Belal Mohamed EGY	+381 s	G0 / G5		Show details Prediction details: Belal Mohamed Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +381 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 22.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -22.88 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 25:01 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total